meto
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 140
|
|
has anyone heard about a stall out, then get pushed to fla.
|
tom5r
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
|
|
It's getting kinda windy in the Islamorada area now, which is slightly north of the middle keys. There's a beautiful full moon shining to my east but some pretty massive clouds coming in with more impressive ones to the south. Key West radar is showing many small storms heading from the southeast, crossing the keys and slightly arcing to the southwest after reaching the gulf. 
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
couple things id like to comment on:
i just got called a guru. its sort of funny to me, a guy who didnt make it in the meteorology program (or at least quit while he was ahead). there was no way i'd get finished with that in four years, and didnt want to take calc 2 for a third time either.. so just skipped out. but, i know of a few people who didnt jump ship, the few and proud survivors.. what i have in enthusiasm doesnt make up for what they have in education and determination. maybe this site draws the best tropical weather discussion on the web (never have bothered with anywhere else), but we're mostly amateurs.. with degree holding exceptions like dunham(experience in MLB), kelley(generous with the knowledge in pc), and scottsvb(tampa, who apparently made it through the terrors of 's meteorology program, many props for that). just want that in perspective.. might be a big fish, but its a relatively small pond... the professional met. world has some very provocative and superior minds.. for hurricane forecasting names like john hope, william gray.. hey, i'd throw bastardi up there too. he's a great source. there are also those guys at the this year who have made the discussions sound less like canned spam and more interesting to read.
second.. shawn, youre making noise again in self defense. hey man, we're not knocking you when we disagree, not saying that you couldnt be right.. just that we dont think you are. western gulf solution needs an initially weaker system and stronger upper low backing in from the east.. that kind of retrogression seems unlikely with the longwave pattern locking over the states. most probable event is that the storm meanders until one of these shortwaves finally draws it up, sometime next week. as a whole i'd say the chances this system gets west of 90w are about 20%, and west of 92w about 5%.. and if then it should be nosediving into the BOC. shawn really, the chances it hits texas to me are about as slim as it never making it into the gulf. thats why im discounting your ideas. not because im being mean or closed minded.
third.. jason k, if you answered, then i missed it: any more pointers on those suite models? im about to lose bastardi as a primary source of thought provoking discussion, so have to come up w/ some other folks to turn to when i need guidance.
okay, another gargantuan post. maybe i should make lots of small ones instead and boost my user rating? nahh.. not the way i want to carry a rep here. just as another guy trying to get this stuff down.
HF 0105z20september
|
Rad
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
|
|
Well is it or.......... ISIDORE, that is the question. Lemme tell ya people I am getting nervous, BUT I AM READY , please get prepared for the UNEXPECTED!
--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
I've got bad feelings about Isidore. That cold front isn't going to make it very far south according to the climate models, and that would have steered her our way here on the west central florida coast. Now it seems her course will carry her towards the texas or louisiana coast. Their wide continental shelf and shallow water make even small storm surges very destructive. It actually would be better for her to hit us in florida, as odd as it sounds, since the nastiest side of the storm would largely blow the water OFFSHORE. But a frontal assault on let's say, new orleans, even from a cat 1 isidore would be horrifiying. Imagine if she strengthens to cat 3 in the warm water and calm air of the gulf. Woe to the insurance companies, and woe to those who love an ocean view. She's a hell of a way to break a drought.
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
Maybe 'guru' was too strong but you never miss any possibility HF. Everyone would give you that. And me? Not that you were implying, but I never earned a user rating based on one liners that's for sure. As you know, I'll take my lumps with my luck.
And before anyone forgets the quixotic Steve vs. "bigtime Gurus" battle, Isidore is another notch against 2 of the Big 3 - 1) Dr. Gary Gray's east of NC season; 2) Dr. Bill Gray's 8 storm season. I might even get the hat trick with 3 for calling out Joe "the Animal" Bastardi on his 1/1.5 Buras to Appalachacola landfall scheme since I think Isidore ends up there when it's all said and done.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
HF, you do a great job....don't sell yourself short.
Now, the tropical suite...
The Bam's a are Beta advection models...which mean that they take the trajectory forecast from the AVN and derive the storm motion from there...the difference in the three are that they use layer means...the shallow is 850-700, the middle is 850-500, and the Deep is 850-250 (working from memory, but I think that is right....)...the Bams work best when the storm is influenced by the ambient flow, and not the other way around.
LBAR, the limited barotropic, is just that, a limited domain barotropic (dynamic) modal...it is a movable mesh on a storm centered domain...most useful when there aren't strong external forces outside the mesh of the model grid that are influencing storm motion....also, LBAR is 2 dimensional...which doesn't really account for upper level dynamic changes...
I find these models most useful in verifiying the output of other model data, and not as "primary" data, so to speak...I wouldn't bas e a forecast on them, but would use it to confirm what other data is telling me....
OK....there is a start...anything specific you want to ask me?
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
|
|
The month is famous for the "harvest moon", the name given for the full moon nearest the autumnal equinox. It provided the extended light that extended harvest activities after sunset. The full moon near the equinox is also a period with high seasonal tides. If a landfalling hurricane or coastal storm happens at these times, coastal flooding can be greatly enhanced. The Great New England Hurricane of September 21, 1938 came at this unfortunate time.
http://www.intellicast.com/Almanac/Northeast/September/
not sure how that will effect Cuba or possibly points further north and yes shawn points west even 
because it was the North East Almanac.
Anyway, sucks to be in Cuba
Troy
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
Heck, on a good day it sucks to be in Cuba!!!
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
usufruct
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 7
|
|
In looking at the historical tracks (Hurricane Alley site) I note that not one storm has passed near Isidore's location into the Gulf and then made a hard right turn into the Florida peninsula. One did curve northeastward and crossed the upper peninsula, but all the others headed into the central Gulf coast. If climo is any indication, peninsula Florida may be in the clear.
Robin Lauriault
Melrose
|
Dana
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 4
Loc: Naples, Fl.
|
|
What him say???
|
joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
|
|
Bruce, I have no exper. in these matters, but maybe I can be of some help. Today in JAX we get rain, from the north! First time in months its come from that direction. We must have a real small slice of high pressure right on top of us, because our 'summer' rain comes from the west and south. First signs of our weather pattern begining to change toward the fall. That's why I wouldn't discount Izzy shooting off toward the NE at some time. Hope that helps.
|
troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
|
|
Jason
gonna hit ya up with another question.
How long before a ground swell from Izzy hits your area- if at all. I remember when Mitch was way down south a pretty decent swell squeaked between Cuba and the Yucitan and the waved were at least 8' up in your area.
Surfed Pensacola Beach well before he made his move north. The only time I ever drove 8+ hours just to surf!
Troy (still waiting for a cat 3 to sit around Bermuda for a few days and throw us a big swell)
|
usufruct
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 7
|
|
Jason, I don't want to turn this hurricane site into a political forum, but you made the first move. I have been travelling to Cuba for years and I can assure you that you are mistaken regarding your impression of Cuba. You should go there and see for yourself. It is a marvelous, vibrant country with some problems (largely caused by US right wingers), but with some very positive aspects as well. Open your eyes, my friend.
Robin Lauriault
|
Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
|
|
Thanks
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
I figure about a day or two after the passage into the gulf...We should see some pretty good swell by Sunday, I'd think.
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Him say most models full of hooey.
--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
You are correct...it was a tongue in cheek statement, and I would LOVE to visit Cuba sometime...I have a grandfather who visited there in the 50's and has good memories of his visit. I hear it is a lovely country...I guess I am one of those US right-wingers you speak of, but I was wrong in my blanket assessment (although I disagree with you politically...reasonable people can disagree!).
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
I'm sorry!! I didn't realize that a communist regime which represses it's citizens was a puppet government created by the U.S. right wingers. Wow I can learn so much on this sight!!! Come on
Keith
|
StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Ok, I don't think we need to continue the political discussion. Let's get back to whether Izzy visits Shawn's backyard as a Cat 4 or 5.
--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
