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KN4LF
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Emily Slow To Strengthen
      #42729 - Wed Jul 13 2005 04:00 PM

#66 Published Wednesday July 13, 2005 at 11:00 am EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm

At the 11:00 am EDT advisory T.S. Emily has a sustained wind of 60 mph. It is at position 11.2 N 58.1 W with a minimum barometric pressure of 29.62", up some from yesterday". It is currently still on a west heading or 270 degrees at a speed of 20 mph.

Latest satellite imagery shows a less organized cyclone versus yesterday at this time. Emily's continued stubborn adherence to a west heading is bringing her circulation into contact with the landmass of South America, something I mentioned yesterday. There is also still some significant wind shear to the north and some dry air entrainment into her forward left side. Bottom line is as I forecasted yesterday with only slow intensification occurring.

If T.S. Emily survives her run in with the landmass of South America she can still reach CAT 1 hurricane status sometime on Thursday or Friday 07/14-15/05. Climatologically speaking tropical cyclones that collide with the landmass of South America rarely become major hurricanes that strike the U.S. but so far this year tropical cyclones are ignoring climatology. The official NHC TPC forecast track into the Yucatan Peninsula seems reasonable to me at this time.

Emily could then threaten the southern and central coastline of Texas in future days. But my fellow Floridians cannot breath a sigh of relief yet concerning Emily, plus we have another fledgling Cape Verde disturbance, T.D. #6 brewing at approximately 16.1 N 35.0 W.

Stay tuned.

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