Domino
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Ah thank you for the site. I generally just look these things up myself but computers I use at work are slower than Christmas. On a different subject TD13 is starting to get its act together on IR and I truely believe the Carribean is going to have its next hurricane in a couple days. I don't think this storm is getting the attention it deserves and Puerto Rico/Bahamas/Florida should keep their eyes open this week.
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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I agree, TD #13 is moving westward @ 23mph. Getting closer, faster. They already have Trop Storm watches up for Barbados and the Lesser Antilles. This thing will probably develop fast, (once it slows down a tad). Definitely something to watch in the next several days. Then there is Kyle, what to do with him, who the heck knows!! 
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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By the way Domino, How's everything going in your town?
Hope everything is going ok. It's been all over our news stations about the Tornado. Pretty wicked, give me a Hurricane anyday. At least you get some kind of warning.
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Things are starting to get back to normal here. We got power back yesterday morning and streets are mostly unblocked now. My town had 20 homes with total destruction and 100 more unliveable and thats just my small suburb of Indianapolis. NWS has offically labelled it as a F-3 that went through my town accompanied by 2 F-2's and an F-0 in other parts of the area. I literally had 10 minutes warning to prepare for this thing. I received a phone call, checked Accuweather's storm radar and found it had a TV and MESO detected and headed directly for me...and naturally like all braniacs headed to...the front porch. I could see a large debris field in the air moving northeast due south of my home. Shortly after it passed I headed to families houses that lived due south of me but luckily the path about 1/2 mile wide split the distance between us perfectly. There are several very large trees uprooted and some brick homes (yes, BRICK!) now in piles of bricks. How on Earth with 10 minutes warning there were no serious injuries in this city I have absolutely no idea. Kudo's to the spotters who reported it as the NWS said it was not on radar and the warning was only issued on word from spotters. I still haven't figured out that one as I clearly could see it on radar and the storm table also had it. This has been an issue in my city for a couple years now. The NWS here is very reluctant to issue tornado warnings and has missed a couple in the past few years. Anyone have any take on why they would do this?
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Izzy is certainly tracking west now at a rather descent speed, last frame looks like a turn to the WNW but could be a wobble until we see a couple more frames of it. Pictures from the Yucatan should be rough tomorrow...they got really nailed by a very very strong cat 3.
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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its quasi stationary. satelite frames tend to jump before the four or so hour break in satelite imagery overnight.. so the movement youre seeing is sort of a gag. go look at the monterey animation and youll see what i mean. winds down to 80mph.. but pressure still at 954mb. up 20mb from earlier today. might be a tropical storm that makes it into the bay of campeche... later today? yeah.. storm has a history of stalling for a few hours. scratch the earlier short term track/intensity though.. maybe come off around 980mb, 60mph winds. take a couple of days to recover.
from a forecasting standpoint, this storm is pissing me off. every time i expect it to do something perfectly sensible it does something else.
HF 0635z23september
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I wish he would just die off.. I don't want him to head to Texas for sure or Louisiana. Actually, don't want him to head to anyone. I live close to TX/LA boarder and not sure if far enough north aftering watching the size of him. If he starts heading this way we have a lot of work to do here. Will have to cut some trees down sooner than expected so they won't come crashing down on house. Already had a tornado hit us a couple of years ago and took roof off. Besides, supose to go camping towards the end of the week. I can handle the rain, but not the wind or severe weather. I just pray that where ever he goes that everyone is safe and no one is hurt. I just starting reading this site the other day and have found it very interesting. I will try and register on here tomorrow. Eyes too tired to read much more. Night to all and keep up the good work.
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Izzy has continued SW through the night and is not too far from emerging in the BOC. A few days ago the discussion said it'd take something awfully strong to pull a storm out of there and thats exactly what we have to its north now...so I suppose its wait-and-see if it catches and heads north. Still looks very good on IR sat. TD13...looking good overnight, maybe a TS today. I been on a soapbox about this thing for a couple days now. I still swear up and down we can not forget it being out there while Izzy is busy being a nice distraction. This one may sneak up on us in a big big way. I have to wonder, what if, in a perfect world, these two storms would get together?
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Izzy has really weakened overnight, but his signature still looks really good. Moving towards the BOC now and probably will head toward the US this week and intensify greatly again. Watch out central gulf coast. TD 13 looks much better this morning and will probably be a storm today. Storm moving fast, but should slow down and intensify the next few days. Folks on the east coast need to watch this one.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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IZZY WILL BE NOTHING MORE THAN A RAIN MAKER NOW I DONT SEE THE FRONT GETTING HIM NOW THAT HE IS JUST A WWK STORM
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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IZZY IN SAME SPOT 4 HOUR NOW LOOKS LIKE BY BY IZZY
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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As of now, I don't think Izzy will ever make it back out over the water. He stalled for a while overnight, but now has picked up a southerly track again. He was suppose to have started moving west or wnw by now. I also don't see in the WV loop anything that would cause him to turn to the NW. IMO, we have a system that all along wanted to do what HE wanted to do and not what the models said he should do. Now I think he just wants to die a peaceful death over the Yucatan.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I don't know. Global model support still wants to bring him in between you and me. There is a fairly strong concensus. At some point it's pretty likely that it will unless something unforseen pops up on the weatther map. While I'm on record with a hit for the MS Coast - which I'm sticking to out of pride  , the reality is that St. Mary or Terrebonne Parish in SC LA is a likely target for Thursday.
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Shawn,
I think you're right about the fate of old Izzy. All eyes should be on TD 13 now. Its looking fairly impressive on IR and seems to be followng in the very same path as Izzy. Wondering if this is young Lily waitng to be born
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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I'm not nailing Izzy's coffin yet. I still think he will emerge into the BOC sometime later today. I think Izzy still has some steam left, and few more tricks up his sleeve.
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
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Either it will die a slow painful dead as Shawn mentioned or it will be pulled north as predicted by the . I tend to agree with the latter... That being said, it must be one hell of a trough pushing down to grab this thing and pull it up.... and if this is the case, IF... and strong troughs move from west to east, then this system should logically go... from northwest to north to eventually northeast... now it all about the timing
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Izzy should be off the coast in a few hours. If so, Izzy will be back to near hurricane strength very quickly. He is inching his way near the coast already, Izzy will need to stay inland for quite a bit longer to die off completely.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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It's a combination of a trof that will be near in 36-48 hours and an expected ridge buliding to its east that will provide its way out. In any event, center is pretty near the coast now. I think it's emerging into the BOC by 12 or 1 this afternoon.
Steve
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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It's been about 10 hours, give or take that Izzy has made landfall, I think  and he is still as strong and together as he is. I still say he isn't done. I think Texas better watch this one.
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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It may be delayed somewhat longer. 7am reports a drift south at 5mph. Interestingly and agreeing with Shawn's analysis is there is no hisorical support in the Weather Underground's historical maps for a storm to re-emerge.
Steve
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