Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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If this forecast verifies, get ready for 3 dollar plus gas next week...
After , there was basically NO gas... at ANY price, in the Niceville/Valparaiso area where I am. If the forecast verifies, I suspect it may be a long time before there is gas again, too.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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are you reading what the is putting out as at landfall? 115 that is not a strong 4 nor a solid 4 or even a 4 that is what is coming out at 11pm
Where is LI Phil when you really need him?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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thats fine but on there forcast map they have a red dot right at landfall and red dot is a 3...http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512.html
that's the 8PM advisory (5PM update) and Weather Underground's dot is wrong.
should be Cat 4.
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Trekman
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Fort Walton Beach FL
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Tell me about it. I had to fill up at Tyndall during my lunch hour after .
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Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)
Emergency Administration and Management program at Northwest Florida State College
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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I'm all gassed up, sure wish I had a hybrid... this thing hits coastal LA as a 4 and 3.00 gas might be a bargain.... you'll think 2.50 would be like giving it away.... I sure hope this scenario does not come to fruition....
If gas hits $3 then I think that I may be forced to get a hybrid. Going down in the morning and boarding up beach house in Gulf Shores. I have a bad feeling about this one. Then again female storms don't hit Mobile
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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DougBaker
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 18
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5% cut?
I am just a poor consumer worried about how to fill the tank now. It is scary how dependent we all are on a small area. If it gets hit, we all get hit in the pocketbook.
Anyway. I have always enjoyed looking at the maps, plots, etc knowing they would not be at my house. We have strong winds here in the thin air, but never full of rain and debris.
Of course we can get a blizzard in the winter, thats fun, but not nearly as damaging.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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Gas just started to level off here in florida at 2.58 sure dont need to see 3$ here but if this goes there well better go find a 200 gallon tank 
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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im sure hes around but why do you need him?
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Quote:
are you reading what the is putting out as at landfall? 115 that is not a strong 4 nor a solid 4 or even a 4 that is what is coming out at 11pm
Where is LI Phil when you really need him?
Good question...where are any of the mods?
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That Weather Underground map is 3 hours old which makes it before the latest early model runs came out. The track doesn't match the model runs anymore, nor does it match what wxman007 said the told him during a phone conference. Further, I don't recall anyone saying that the system would hit Cat 4 shortly after it reached the gulf. last night was indicating a Cat 2, and that's what it did. It then showed slow strengthening for the next day before reaching strong Cat 3 or Cat 4. Frankly, the seems to be the closest in intensity and not too bad for track so far...the rest of the models are even worse!
Ralph, I'd suggest you read more about what people are talking about rather than just stick your head in the sand and say "this is what it is." We aren't experts, but we aren't idiots either. If you're going to say something, make sure what you're saying is accurate. 5pm said 115 KT - that is Cat 4. You can't argue it isn't! It's a definition!
--RC
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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I'll admit, I was scared enough to go out and get gas. It was $2.47, which compared to what it will be next week is a steal.... I'm still thinking the XTRP model is the best scenario... No idea what's controlling it, but I certainly prefer its track.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Trekman
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Fort Walton Beach FL
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Down here in FWB its 2.55. Dont know how long it will last. At 530 this morning I saw someone filling up gas cans already.
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Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)
Emergency Administration and Management program at Northwest Florida State College
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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Quote:
Quote:
are you reading what the is putting out as at landfall? 115 that is not a strong 4 nor a solid 4 or even a 4 that is what is coming out at 11pm
Where is LI Phil when you really need him?
As said they had the wrong dot on Weather underground so yes they have it as a borderline 4 which i hope they are wrong but i was going by what was posted not what im thinking
So agreed they have it as a min cat 4 storm stand corrected.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 27 2005 02:55 AM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Have not been on for a while; trying to keep up. According to our local stations, the storm will be out of our radar soon..if not already. I know that this is effecting a lot of people and I am praying for all of you that are in and OUT of the cone.
It's not funny, but my kids said tonight, "Mommy, I hope all of your friends will be okay. We will pray for them tonight."
I think that says it all.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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Gas just started to level off here in florida at 2.58 sure dont need to see 3$ here but if this goes there well better go find a 200 gallon tank
thats for sure! I didnt realize how badly these monsters can affect the whole country!
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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well thanks to rc i dont think we need li phil now lol
and lmao at the xtrap
wish it were true
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Still have 30 gallons of gas that was left over from last year. Had 50. Been using fuel stabilizer. So it should be good another couple of months. Been using for the lawnmower this summer. May dump a can into the car if there is a huge temporary spike. Just want to have a reserve in case another storm cuts power for a week here so I can run the generator.
I still find the difference of opinion between HPC and interesting. Is that big of a difference common?
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Jim
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
I'll admit, I was scared enough to go out and get gas. It was $2.47, which compared to what it will be next week is a steal.... I'm still thinking the XTRP model is the best scenario... No idea what's controlling it, but I certainly prefer its track.
I think you know this already, but in case someone else doesn't, XTRP is simple extrapolation of the current motion and speed...it's NOT a model.
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Jason Kelley
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Post deleted by lunkerhunter
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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11 PM EDT position...24.6 N... 83.6 W. Movement
toward...west-southwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105
mph. Minimum central pressure... 965 mb.
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 435
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Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
are you reading what the is putting out as at landfall? 115 that is not a strong 4 nor a solid 4 or even a 4 that is what is coming out at 11pm
Where is LI Phil when you really need him?
Good question...where are any of the mods?
------
That Weather Underground map is 3 hours old which makes it before the latest early model runs came out. The track doesn't match the model runs anymore, nor does it match what wxman007 said the told him during a phone conference. Further, I don't recall anyone saying that the system would hit Cat 4 shortly after it reached the gulf. last night was indicating a Cat 2, and that's what it did. It then showed slow strengthening for the next day before reaching strong Cat 3 or Cat 4. Frankly, the seems to be the closest in intensity and not too bad for track so far...the rest of the models are even worse!
Ralph, I'd suggest you read more about what people are talking about rather than just stick your head in the sand and say "this is what it is." We aren't experts, but we aren't idiots either. If you're going to say something, make sure what you're saying is accurate. 5pm said 115 KT - that is Cat 4. You can't argue it isn't! It's a definition!
--RC
And you think telling me i got my head in the sand is not against the board rules? all i said is what i seen on Weather underground and i stand corrected not arguing the point but at least when i correct people i dont degrade them and tell them to get there head out of the sand.
Enough already...drop this now or I start dropping folks...I don't want to use my mod powers!
Edited by wxman007 (Sat Aug 27 2005 02:51 AM)
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