SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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The usually only makes a big change in their track at 11AM or 5PM from what I've noticed.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Just saw the Gov of LA on and CNN and FNC and looks like they are starting evacuations this afternoon with a number of parishes and it looks like they will start the Contra-Flow out of the state this afternoon using I-10 and I-59. Also , the mayor of New Orleans will start evacuations tomorrow and that the Superdome may be used as an evacuation center as well according to WDSU-TV.
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
Edited by Jeffmidtown (Sat Aug 27 2005 06:02 PM)
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Still lots of questions concerning where this will end up, but the models seem to have a good consensus. Having said that, I'm not so sure that's a lock, she's still at a low latitude. I haven't seen much trend east with the models, but we'll have to wait for tonight's runs. I can see the trough in the plains moving SE on WV under a big low in the Upper midwest, but how far will it reach? I'm also interested in 90L, which should be classified as a depression now, as convection is wrapping nicely. Will this be a labor day event? First things first....Katrina. Cheers!!
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Steve Gregory's blog on wunderground tropical weather is an easy read and very informative.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html
I've cut and pasted from the latest. Not sure if this is in line with the forum guidelines (in spite of repeated posts by the mods) so if the mods want to edit that out and just leave the web addy, that is okey dokey by me.
"The latest Vortex RECON Report show has continued to intensify over night, but has just begun a temporary weakening cycle due to an eye wall replacement that began 3 hours ago with a pressure rise of 9mb to 949mb from early this AM. The CLOSED eye wall that was only 9NM across -- has just 'opened up' again to the NW, but has concentric eyewalls of 13NM and 40NM across. " ...
"That said -- the very same southwesterly winds that will initially aid in increasing the outflow channel ahead of the storm in the NNW quadrant, will also end up increasing the shears along the north Gulf coast just before reaches land. This will then, in spite of the extremely warm coastal waters of near 90deg -- lead to some weakening of the storm just prior to landfall. In some ways, a very similar situation to and last year, . One real 'memorable' difference between Hurricane Camille and , as probably , is that the storm headed for the coast around the western edge of a ridge line and came ashore prior to the arrival of an upper air TROF that would of produced some shears near the Gulf coast. Hence, Camille came in at full force. In this case, the ridge is first eroding away precisely because of the development of a major upper level TROF, and the shears will be increasing near the Gulf coast before makes landfall - as I've been expecting now for the past 2 days."
Exerpts are ok, but full reposts aren't, I respect other sites too. Weather Underground is ad/subscriber supported so out of respect I'll remove most of the article. Links are ok, the link for this is also at the bottom of the main page too. -- Mike C.
Edited by MikeC (Sat Aug 27 2005 06:11 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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there is a lot of drier air to her wnw-nw..... and at this time yesterday was a lot less....not sure how this will play an role in her movement or strength.... here's a water vapor shot of Katrina from esl.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
looks like they will start the Contra-Flow out of the state this afternoon using I-10 and I-59.
That Contra-Flow was well named. I can't figure how that slipped in as a valid evac plan. That is the one that shuttles people from NO over into MS and prevents MS coastline from evacuating.
On the phone to my brother last night I was talking about what a huge mess it would be if they ever had to evacuate Jackson Cty MS. The entire cty is low-lying and any serious hurricane threat would mean evacuation of pretty much everyone in the cty.
According to an article from WLOX online I read yesterday:
"Following Hurricane in July, which caused scattered damage and flooding problems from Jackson County northward along the state's east side, Latham said he had serious concerns about the numbers who chose not to heed evacuations. He said based on a survey conducted after , it appeared 'the general public is very tired and weary of evacuations. We are worried many people will not evacuate.'"
My brother told me that when Georges (a Cat 2 that made landfall at Ocean Springs) hit, that in the eastern part of the cty, near the AL line, there were people who didn't evacuate and who drowned in their homes. He said there was over 10 feet of water in some places there, and he had participated in rescue efforts there, where he was using a boat and the street signs, which he said are 8' high, were under water.
Anyway he said that the county sent everyone a map recently in the mail showing the evacuation routes and the funny thing was that they highlighted every road out of the county. There are only about four or five roads out of the county (not counting I-10 which simply runs along the coast), and they are all tiny back roads that are prone to flooding in places. In the event of a coastal evac, some of them would be congested just north of the county with people leaving from AL or from Biloxi area, preventing residents from getting very far. Of course you can't specify additional roads if they don't exist.
There are so many problems with resources and $$$ even beyond the evacuation logistics, for this area of the N GOM. I really hope the models don't start to turn east because by then all the NO folks will be in hotels in central MS, which will be full, and many of the gas stations will be out of gas, and where will those people on the MS coast go. At least in MOB they can head towards Montgomery or ATL on I-65 or east on I-10.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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Quote:
The 1:00 intermediate advisory is out, and it shows the same landfall as before - around NO. THAT track has not shifted east.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_5day.html
They dont shift tracks at the inter update no matter what they wait till 5 pm so the track is the same because they dont change it only during the full updates at 5pm and 11.
Look for a slight shift east at 5pm
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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This has probably been posted several times in the past 24 hours, but in case it hasn't this is a fascinating article that I found online several years ago and bookmarked (little did I know that our current setup would so closely resemble the article).
http://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/wetlands/hurricane_print.html
For those interested, here is a second excellent article: http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0BJK/is_15_11/ai_68642805
I am appalled at La emergency management and the reports of what a few of the N.O. mets are saying. Of course you can't incite the public into a panic, but folks need to face the grave reality of this situation. I'm getting the impression that John Q. Public in New Orleans (who isn't an avid weather watcher like those of us here) may not realize exactly the potential of what he is facing. It takes 72 hours to evacuate the city of New Orleans... we are approximately 48 hours from a time when it would become very very dangerous to attempt to evacuate. If does follow the current path and strike N.O., I think the government officials in La would have blood in their hands and should face impeachment. I understand not wanted to incite a panic, but as the saying goes, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.
I feel like I'm sitting at an intersection watching a car crash about to occur.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Quote:
Still lots of questions concerning where this will end up, but the models seem to have a good consensus. Having said that, I'm not so sure that's a lock, she's still at a low latitude. I haven't seen much trend east with the models, but we'll have to wait for tonight's runs. I can see the trough in the plains moving SE on WV under a big low in the Upper midwest, but how far will it reach? I'm also interested in 90L, which should be classified as a depression now, as convection is wrapping nicely. Will this be a labor day event? First things first....Katrina. Cheers!!
What's up?
As for ...the more wnw motion hasn't come into play yet. If we don't see a more northerly component by tomorrow afternoon, then I could imagine a landfall WEST of NO. That would be a very, very bad scenario for that city. I also think that may be going through an at this point. The core of the storm looks a little disorganized right now. With that being said, could bomb out later tonight.
90L looks very good this afternoon. It's not of much importance attm given the massive threat that is posing. That may change over time though. The models are somewhat spread out with their future tracks of this disturbance. We have plenty of time to watch it .
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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worst possible scenario for NO is just east of the city. northerly winds left of the eye would bank the surge against the ponchatrain levee, and push it over. just west would be more wind damage, but the lake would probably stay on its side of the levee.
HF 1820z27august
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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I have not heard how strong the trough coming thru the midwest will be. I know this will be the deciding factor. I remember Opal made it all the way to 92.3 west before itm turned north and then northeast, making landfall at 88.6
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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John C
Unregistered
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Link of Intrest:
http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/eng/edhd/watercon.htm
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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Would anyone be kind enough to give me a good link of a sat loop of the storm? i have been watching the radar loops but now its out of long range for the key west.
Thanks.
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Posts: 184
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Ralph...in the column on the left of this page is a link to the ...several different images to choose from.
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susieq
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
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Models are swinging back west again.
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Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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OK... somebodies best guess...a slow moving at cat 3 or low cat 4 hitting MS/AL border..storm surge totals off to the east? I know had surge 150 east of landfall near 8 feet....and Georges completely flooded Mobile when it came in as a strong 2 weak 3.....
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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dkpcb
Registered User
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Posts: 6
Loc: Panama City Beach Florida
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That’s what we are watching out for pcola.
I remember Opal very well, no warning,
I remember having to leave town, and the traffic
being so bad, we could not get out of town in time.
got about 20 miles out of town by 3:00 pm that afternoon,
and the traffic just stops for 2 hours, the wind started picking
up and we had to turn around and go back. Went to a friends
house in town. We hade to wait for about 4 days before we could
go back home to the Beach to see our home, we could only find
half of the house.
Let's hope this is not going to happen this time.
DK
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KimmieL
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 26
Loc: Baton Rouge, La
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I really appreciate all the great posts! Looking like the could be completed in the next few hours. Motion continues to be west! Lines for gas, ice, and propane are expanding as we speak. We have made the decision to stay basing it on the facts that it will be a weak Cat 4 at landfall (if there is such a thing!)
Kimmie
Betsy '65
Andrew '92
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Louisiana is now in full preparedness/evacuation mode. The emergency managers were on television not long ago stressing the need to prepare and evacuate in an orderly manner. Given less than a day's lead time since the track shifted and still 2 days to landfall, there's not much else you can do. It is simply too expensive to begin planning evacuations for the city when the projected path takes the storm into Panama City, FL with no real signs of a substantial shift west until within the 3 day window. Simply put, this storm is reminding us that we still don't know a lot about these systems and must rush to make preparations when things do change. Watches were placed in accordance with policy; shortly thereafter, evacuations and the like went into effect. It's about the best you can do right now, unfortunately.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
I have not heard how strong the trough coming thru the midwest will be. I know this will be the deciding factor. I remember Opal made it all the way to 92.3 west before itm turned north and then northeast, making landfall at 88.6
The trough in the midwest is too far north to affect and sliding off to the east. There is another one further south and west moving SE from west Texas. You'll notice that the clouds over coastal Texas are now moving NE. Upstream of the Texas trough there is some bowing off the coast of Oregon, usually a sign of building high pressure which could eventually sharpen up the amplitude of the trough in W Tex (causing it to dig deeper into the N Gulf). As usual, its a timing situation with the trough and storm but there should be some turning of toward the NW within the next 12 hours.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10
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RJB
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