lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Very Interesting. The calm before the storm.
Sunny across most of the state and winds aren't up much yet.
I hope this doesn't lull people into thinking they're safe.
link
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Sunny and winds aren't up much yet.
I hope this doesn't fool people into think they are safe.
link
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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katrina should be ashore in 24-30 hours. right now it's gotten about as strong as i'd reckoned it could.... there is some guidance making it a bit stronger, but i'd say more than half has it a bit weaker at landfall. there are no guarantees, either way... the SSTs is moving over can support a stronger hurricane, but by nature category fives don't tend to maintain themselves. of course, a bit weaker than a 140kt hurricane is not much of a favor. now, keep in mind that the fairy godmother can always intervene and knock 20-25kt off if the storm hits at the bottom end of an . hurricanes also rarely maintain cat 5 status for more than a day or two. kept going there, but never stayed very long. will probably not be at category 5 at landfall, like the official says.. but there just isn't much to weaken the storm besides inner-core changes. no considerable shear in the forecast, and subsidence entrainment doesn't look to be a significant factor either. guidance hasn't really shifted.. so a direct hit on NO is quite possible. guidance won't shift significantly to the left.. the ridge-building and weakness don't support that kind of change, so it coming in at biloxi is more likely than, say, houma.
i'll just reiterate what many have already said on here. if you're in southeastern louisiana or coastal mississippi, staying behind could very well be a death sentence. if you're inland in some place like bogalusa or mccomb or laurel, you're still likely to get hurricane force winds... make sure you're in a sturdy structure tomorrow afternoon. significant wind impact will likely be felt as far inland as the starkville/columbus or even tupelo.. east of I-55, up towards northeast mississippi.
with a category 5 a day away from landfall on the central gulf coast, there shouldn't be other news.. but there is a little.
90L will operationally be a depression soon. it is around 15/47 right now moving wnw. the track should take it north of the caribbean, as the weakness left by 97L should draw it up a bit. most models take it up towards bermuda through a ridge weakness. 97L is a displaced low near 22/57 drifting west under heavy shear... trying to break through an upper trough. its convection is displaced well to the east and being drawn poleward.
a new invest will likely be issued by as the last ssd cycle tagged the well-defined wave which left africa late yesterday as 91L. it's already rated 1.0 and starting at a low latitude... numerous models track and develop it, and take it as far as the western atlantic. it won't be nearing the caribbean until late in the week, if it develops.
HF 1427z28august
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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I just heard that the entire New Orleans parish is under mandatory evacuation now. According to both the Major of New Orleans and the governor of Louisiana.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Evacuations have begun here in Northwest Florida on Pensacola Beach. Perdido Key and Navarre.... The Gulf has breach hwy399 on Navarre beach already...I think the people in NO were a little late with the last order..
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Posts: 184
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Better late than never I guess...unreal...I hope the majority of people decided on their own to get out & have taken the necessary provisions to secure their property.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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URNT12 KNHC 281431
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/14:17:00Z
B. 25 deg 58 min N
088 deg 03 min W
C. 700 mb 2294 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 306 deg 140 kt
G. 221 deg 014 nm
H. 907 mb
I. 12 C/ 3059 m
J. 26 C/ 3048 m
K. 6 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C22
N. 12345/ 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1712A OB 21
MAX FL WIND 166 KTS OUTBOUND NE QUAD 1422Z. PERFECT STADIUM EFFECT AND TEXTBOOK RADAR DEPICTION OF EYEWALL.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Ricreig
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
I'll repost some of what I put up earlier.
If you are in a Hurricane Warning area, and a voluntary or mandatory Evacuation is put in place.
PLEASE LEAVE!!
This storm will probably have it's name retired.
Don't be One of the Fatalities or injuries that caused.
At this time I-20 frrom Jackson,MS to the West has very little traffic on it.
I-55 North from the Northshore Area was moving good around 3 hours ago.
Turn your refrigerator down...unplug everything and Leave as soon as you can.
You may not have another chance to Leave. Thanks.
Danny, I know you abhor comparing to Camille, so I will. I, like you and a few others in this forum, lived through Camille near the point of impact (in NE quadrant eyewall). This storm has all of the markings of Camille's equal in all but one area, the point of projected impact. I did NOT have the opportunity to leave (military) the area, nor the time (warning <12 hrs) but I wish I had been able to. It was a time of terror, unabated terror and destruction I could have never imagined. If hits anywhere near its projected impact area, Camille may be peanuts in comparison even though Camille likely will still hold an edge in sustained wind speed (and even that is in question given the way continues to intensify). The entire area from N.O. to BIloxi where I was, has radically changed since I lived there, Many more people will be exposed and much more property to be damaged.
I fear for the lives of the people in the path of . I have seen total deviastation in the past with Camille, as have you, and I fear this may be worse.
I echo your warning Get the hell out of the warning area!!!
Steve, you may not have another opportunity to see a CAT V storm in your lifetime, but in fact, if you stay, you may not get a chance to see what it is like to see the aftermath of one either.
I haven't posted much this year or on because the posts have been top-notch from our Mets and forum members, but because relatively few people have actually lived through a CAT V storm as I and danielw have, I feel compelled to tell you, don't learn what it is like from experiencing it first hand, learn from the experience of others that have first hand experience. Heed the advice and don't become a statistic.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Grant
Registered User
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Posts: 2
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One has to wonder what the ramifications of a full mandatory evacuation, as well as such a disastrous storm making landfall in the area of such a major city. I've already seen local gas stations here in my area ratcheting up gas prices. I'm not a huge expert on economics, but don't we have several refineries in Louisiana? I remember seeing a lot of them along 10 on the other side of Baton Rouge, but I don't exactly know if there are any in the NO Metro area. I think there is a major port there, as well.
I hope everyone stays safe in this awful storm. One would think witnessing history would be exciting, but this just leaves a pit in my stomach.
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Richter I - Systems Administrator / Meteorology Student
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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Posts: 125
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Click here and hit REFRESH was required - to 36 hours is complete now. Track appears to be fairly good from what's been plotted over the movement thus far. Error cone appears to just touch Mobile Bay, but an extrapolation from the next fix (due in a few minutes) will likely be right near Daphne.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/KATRINA.track.png
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Catmando
Registered User
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Posts: 6
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I have a question which may be of interest to others. If a hurricane or tropical depression entered the gulf in the near future, will the waters be cooler because of the size and velicity of ?
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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
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Like everybody on here knows. It's better to be safe than sorry. I would hate to be the person who didn't do anything. The mayor of N.O just said she expects to breach the levies (sp) and cause catostrophic damage. Apparently they are ordering a city-wide evacuation.
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Matt
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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What I feel the recon indicates: The rapid intensification is over. The winds have caught up (for the first time!). Might be continued intensification on a smaller scale for awhile, or status quo.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 62
Loc: Vero Beach, FL
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better to leave sooner rather than later. Here in Vero Beach we're actually getting a band right now from some of the eastern moisture from . Torrential rain and some good 20MPH winds. These bands seem to roll thru real quick and I'd expect sun again in 30 minutes or less.
We had the double whammy here last year and I ran Red Cross shelters. The Cat 2/3 double hit was scary enough. I'd beat feet real quick anywhere near a cat 5. I'm brave but not stupid.
I survived:
Jeanne 2004
Frances 2004
911-NYC 2001
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Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Remember this is not a barrier island. New Orleans is a bowl..it fills up with water and the water has nowhere to go. So.. don't think you will get lucky with a storm surge not hitting your specific part of town.. everywhere there is a problem.
Listen to evacuation warnings. You have thought on this for years.. this is it.
If it turns sharply before landfall and you don't get a direct hit. Thank God but you will get large amounts of water and bad weather..and that would be a best case scenario. The size is massive and will affect many areas.
I really think watching the loops and radar imagery that she will more likely than not .. not make that turn until she is hitting land. I worry she will turn more NE than current models show (based on current sat imagery and a good gut feeling) and if she does take such a turn.. she will crawl across the whole Gulf Coast east of NOLA and move inland further south than currently forecast. Which would put a lot of people along the Gulf and up through Alabama and Georgia under direct effects of heavy, pounding, flooding rain and strong winds.
Hope I am wrong on that because the feeling right now is she will go further north. That trough is weak and the flow above her is going sharply left to right.
Came on over here to post this because heard from friends online Steve in Metarie has said he would stay. Asking he change his mind and IF he is staying.. do me a favor and do not talk on staying here on a website many people are reading. Don't want any copycats staying somewhere because they have read so and so has decided to ride it out. Do what you feel you must but don't give others ideas. Please.
Stay safe everyone and thanks HankFrank and Clark for excellent discussion.
Bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Winds are now 175mph, with gusts to 215mph.
Needless to say, this is going to be one for the record books.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Holy mother of god its up to 175 max sustained winds.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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175 - stronger than Mitch, I believe, now. Pressue of 907.
No change to forecast track, or warnings.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
I found the source at another news site. It is a direct quote from someone at ,
"Katrina’s landfall could still come in Mississippi and affect Alabama and Florida, but it looked likely to come ashore Monday morning on the southeastern Louisiana coast, said Ed Rappaport, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami."
I think GuppieGrouper said it well just a bit ago, can affect places a hundred, maybe much more, miles away from the point of impact. So, if the NO track proves to be accurate, towns in Florida can and will still feel some impact. I believe this is what Ed Rappaport was alluding to, not a radical change of track being implied.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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NO has mandatory evac now. Truthfully, if I lived anywhere from Southern La, Costal MS/AL I would get the heck out of there. You probably have 12 hours of good evac time left. After that, weather starts to get iffy. As far as evac, I would not evac north into Miss or Alabama. NW LA, Texas, Georiga would be te areas I would try to make too. The center of this storm will cause havoc well inland. Best to avoid any evac points that could possibly fall under the center. At this point, grab your papers and a weeks worth of clothes. Taking sleeping materials. If you have to board up, do it NOW. You are almost out of time.
Good luck all.
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Jim
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