mbfly
Weather Guru
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Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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I totally agree. People in the Mobile area are not taking this seriously. The local news is saying cat. 5 storm surge along the immediate coast here with cat. 1 or cat. 2 winds.
I see the same. No one in our neighborhood has boarded their house except us !! Right now, the skies are starting to look a little dark and I'm thinking about getting a generator while they still have some !! 
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WeatherNut
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Thanks...thats the all time lowest isn't it? It was not that deep in the GOM as I recall. In this year of infamous hurricane records, it just seems another one could fall
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
Thanks...thats the all time lowest isn't it? It was not that deep in the GOM as I recall. In this year of infamous hurricane records, it just seems another one could fall
gilbert was the lowest in the ATL basin, yes
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ron Basso
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Don't think it'll make a sharp right turn but looking at the latest water vapor there is a vigorous trough now punching into west TX. There have been a series of troughs swinging thru the last day or so, but this latest one looks more potent. The overall cloud shield of KAT is starting to elongate N-S which means that she is starting to come under the influence of the trough. This may be a good thing in that perhaps KAT will start encountering increasing shear as she moves north of 28N. At this point, its really academic where the actual landfall will be with such a massive storm. Latest 12Z brings her in right along 's projected path about the LA/MISS border. The does weaken her slightly going from 147 kts to 127 kts - really immaterial when your talkin that high.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10
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RJB
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WeatherNut
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I dont think the "weather disaster" movies could be as bad as whats about to happen in NO. Also, they say it can withstand 200mph winds. I would think there would be gusts WELL over 200mph if sustained are 175
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Clark
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Gilbert's lowest pressure was 888mb, the current record for the Atlantic Basin. Next up is the 1935 Florida Keys hurricane at 892mb; Allen (1980) is the only other storm <900mb in the basin, reaching a minimum pressure of 899mb. At 902mb, is now the 4th strongest hurricane in recorded history in the Atlantic basin, having surpassed both Mitch and Camille at 905mb.
If were to make landfall at a pressure <909mb, it would be the second most intense hurricane to do so in recorded history. As it stands, will be the 4th category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the United States in recorded history, along with Camille, Andrew, and the aforementioned 1935 Fl. Keys hurricane.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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nate77
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I thought the labor day storm of 1935 had the lowest registered pressure at 992mb?
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WiscoWx
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That's one of the problems, isn't it? The longer maintains this intensity or even winds up an mb or two, the higher her base level when she does start to come down from her peak. It is very, very hard to see how she can be anything except a 4 or 5 when she landfalls.
Another, post-landfall, problem is that with her size and intensity causing so much regional destruction...even well inland, it will impede relief getting to New Orleans if NO does take a direct impact. I would have to think that the feds may need to consider parking a naval group in the northern gulf after comes through to support the relief effort. Last I knew, the Bataan group was in the Antilles a week ago.
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clyde w.
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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There are more important things to be worried about today, but wanted to point out that TD #13 has formed east of the Lesser Antilles. site has it listed as 13NONAME.
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tpratch
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Loc: Maryland
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Nate, the 892, was the lowest pressure of a U.S. landfall.
As mentioned, there have been lower pressures hit while over open water.
Katrina is just plain nasty.
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Clark
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I would take dynamical model intensity forecasts with a grain of salt at this point. Many of them have a spin-up time needed to accurately represent the storm and can thus weaken it more than realistically expected/probable in the first 12-24hr of the model cycle. With near 24hr from landfall, the model forecasts of intensity become increasingly less reliable from here on out. Granted, it should weaken somewhat before landfall,
The trough in Texas, to me at least, appears to be narrowing in scope and having a hard time approaching the storm. As it moves inland and weakens, the trough should capture it, but it's going to be a tough call as to how much it affects the storm now. Note that these narrow troughs tend to not impact storms in anything but a positive manner; it is the classic setup for rapid intensification or is a marker of such a cycle that has already passed. Here, it's likely the latter.
Needless to say, anywhere +/- 50mi of New Orleans is very much still under the gun for a direct impact. For those who missed it earlier, a summary of the potential impacts for many areas can be found on the front page in my most recent Met Blog.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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twizted sizter
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Listening to Fox News...Shephard Smith on Bourbon St...stupid...at a bar that he said was packed full of people partying..stupid.
can they really not care/ignore/think nothing will happen?
Oh my bastardi is on as well...he must be hyped having his NO storm...I mean nothing bad that statement mods...those who watch/listen to him know what I mean.
Edited by twizted sizter (Sun Aug 28 2005 07:36 PM)
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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It isn’t that difficult to believe. “Hurricanes don’t hit here”… “Hurricanes are no big deal… it’s all a big media ploy to get higher ratings”…
I hear it all the time. Aside from this, few of you here can even understand what a category five is like. This is an abhorrent situation, and I am sick to my stomach thinking about it.
Unfortunately, you cannot make people understand something like this.
“Get the hell out” is right.
: (
EDIT: For those of you watching Fox… you are probably listening to dead men talking. This is truly inane.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Sun Aug 28 2005 07:44 PM)
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GuppieGrouper
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Clark,
If Kat does exactly what the models say on the main page of this forum, say the UKMET. With the storm at a Cat 5 level, at land fall, will the angle of the storm still go the direction of the model or will the impact change the direction, I am truly envisioning a spinning top bouncing off objects in its way and in this case the shores and the buildings etc, breaking some of the wind flow, Or will the atmosphere have changed or is this information that is going to be found out on a moment by moment observation.? We in Florida never knew the extent of inland damage until came along.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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VG
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Loc: Tampa Bay, FL
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#102 Published Sunday August 27, 2005 at 3:30 pm EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
Sorry folks but I lost my web server at around 1:00 am EDT this morning and could not update my weather forecasting website. It could not be worse timing too. I just got it back online at 3:15 pm EDT.
As of the 2:00 pm EDT advisory CAT 5 continues with a sustained wind of 175 mph with gusts exceeding 200 mph, is at position 26.5 deg. N 88.6 deg. W, with a minimum barometric pressure of 26.75" and is currently on a NW heading at a speed of 13 mph. Looking at latest satellite imagery she appears to be on a NNW heading or 350 deg. but this could be a trochoidal wobble. Right now is as strong as CAT 5 Camille was in 1969, only much larger.
I still think that will turn NNW-N-NNE and pass just east of the Mississippi River Delta due to the influence of the strengthening and digging mid level longwave trough current located over the Central Plains region. But this will still threaten the Louisiana Delta with total inundation as well as on the east side of the City Of New Orleans.
My current landfall window continues at Pascagoula, MS on the left side and Navarre, FL on the right side, with the bulls eye along the Alabama-Florida border. But due to the size of this tropical cyclone the damage window will extend from Morgan CIty, LA in the west to Apalachicola, FL in the east on early Monday morning 08/29/05.
I'm now hearing of some mandatory evacuations being ordered along the Alabama coast eastward to the western Florida panhandle, so a horrific human catastrophe may be averted. If were to hold her present strength then we would be looking at an incredible storm surge of 15-20 feet, with some spots seeing 28-32 feet just to the right of the eyewall at landfall. Some of the surge may also reach the west coast of the Florida peninsula too.
It takes a special set of circumstances for a CAT 5 tropical cyclone to form and it is very hard for a tropical cyclone to hold at a strong CAT 5 level for very long. But she is so strong that she may only weaken back to a weak CAT 5 (oxymoron) at landfall. But at some point she will undergo another eye wall reformation cycle (ERC), will leave the very warm loop current, enter shallower shelf water and dry air entrainment and wind shear will increase and she may weaken back to a CAT 4 at landfall. But a CAT 4 will still cause catastrophic damage.
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Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Plant City, FL, USA
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Lysis...survived...use that word because that's what I did...a Cat5...Andrew...in a closet. When it was safe to come out the closet & part of 2 walls were all that were left...it's not something I'd ever want to experience again or wish on anyone else either.Move inland only to have 3 on me last yr.
The mindset of some blows my mind...I hope they realize emergency services will not be running after a certain point...and possibly for a while afterwards.
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Hey everyone.....
I was either watching CNN or and they said that 175mph sustained winds is equivalent to an F-3 Tornado on the Fujita scale....
They're already talking about Tornado Watches here in Atlanta tomorrow night....
God speed to everyone on the gulf and everyone in NoLa.
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pcola
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Here in Pensacola we have sustained winds of 29mph and gusts to 35....tides are up and nearly covering the rebuilt docks along Santa Rosa Sound. Good radar presentation from NO shows the eye. I know movement is difficult on radar, but it looks about 320/330 at this time. Barring a north/northeast turn or jog, this is just like the case study done by FEMA for NO, exceot the storm is much stronger.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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ralphfl
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Ok does anyone see the north turn? if it dont soon then it is going to west LA once it goes past 90 west.
I have not seen the north turn yet doe sanyone see it? if not in the next few then N.O might get off the hook.
ralph, why is the wrong? they've been hitting their forecast track pretty closely since they switched from the panhandle. unfortunately i think they've got this one figured out just about right... -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 28 2005 08:13 PM)
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Ron Basso
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Last hour or so KAT has moved N-NW - it may be a wobble but its nail biting time watching every radar & SAT image.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10
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RJB
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