Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Thinking about it, a few points on gas prices...
1) 30 percent (around) of all gas refinery capacity is in the NO/LA area. How much of that capacity has been disrupted/destroyed and how long will it take to get said capacity back online?
2) All Refineries are pretty much running at capacity for summer season (and with the big travel holiday Labor day coming up).
3) The Strategic oil reserve would be perfect for the emergency, except there is no way to refine the gasoline. it's a psychological move to help keep the public calm until a better solution can be worked out.
4) Disruption of supply routes will become very evident in price increases as well as shortages that crop up with JIT inventory. (it won't be just in time if the trucks can't get through, the good news, the disruptions will be temporary as things get rerouted, unless railways have lost routes, those are a bit harder to get back up and running).
As far as calling this the big one or not, The story reminds me of a slow motion freight train hitting a car stuck on the tracks, no matter that you survived the initial impact, NO is going through the equivelent of being dragged along in the car and trying to get out before the car is totally destroyed. (My apologies for the rather gruesome analogy, it is apropos to the situation)
The flooding continues to worsen, You're now looking at issues of disease as well as any heat related risks. No city is ever a total loss, but New Orleans will be a very different city when it is rebuilt.
And I am not trying to mitigate what is happening over in MS and AL and NE of New Orleans. Their damage was more severe in quite a few ways.
I want to be wrong, I really do, and maybe if I say it, it'll turn out to be wrong (kind of like my storm predictions (gallows humor, sorry)), But I think the death toll will reach 4 digits and could reach 5 digits.
It may not be the 'worst case' scenario, but it's near enough to be indistinguishable from my viewpoint.
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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Well, stated. I agree, that the human toll is going to be extreme, probally more than they can fathom.
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BTfromAZ
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Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
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Quote:
.How many Cars? How many Trucks? how many Suv's? how many things that use gas in these states.....LA.........MS...........ALA.......And any other state this cane hit are not able to move? 200,000? more less? then times that by how many gallons on Gas they use a day and are we not saving
To answer specifically your question, the affected part of the Gulf Coast clearly produces far more refined patroleum products (gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation fuel, heating oil) than it uses so the devastation we are seeing and discussing here is far and away a net loss in supply. The biggest problem is most likely the loss of refining capacity in the 8 refineries not currently operating. Since US refineries were already at maximum capacity, the loss of these refineries means a reduction in US gasoline supplies and that will be true even if, as discussed, the President makes available crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
That said, there has also been some criticism here about the media putting focus on the price of gas and other economic issues. While I am as aghast as you all about the loss of life, I think it is wrong to argue that the national media have misplaced their priorities in this. I think what we are seeing develop has the potential to completely change the nation's economic future for several years to come. Among other things that could mean a recession with many many people nationwide being affected. If we indeed have not only a high gasoline price but actual shortages of supply regardless of price, the economy will suffer a severe blow and I do think that's information worthy of discussion by both the media and anyplace the aftermath of this storm is being thoughtfully considered--including here.
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BobVee
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Florida
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For the same reasons we should give our thoughts and prayers to those men and women of the emergency services in all of the communities. They left their families to provide for the needs of others in the face of all of this. All are heroes.
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Big Red Machine
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Loc: Polk City, FL
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Mark, I completely agree with you. On a national level, the economic consequences of this disaster will be staggering. There are only a handful of cities in our nation that if they were to be destroyed (or at the very least we can agree "out of service" for 1-2 years) the entire country would feel the negative effects. As awful as the destruction of a city is, it typically does not lead to the drastic consequences that the destruction of this strategic port will lead to.
Just heard on CNN that a man has jumped to his death in the Superdome. There is waist deep water outside the dome. Toilets are overflowing. They are trying to evacuate the mayor from City Hall (which is surrounded by water) to the Superdome. Conditions inside are utterly unbearable. Literally a H--- on Earth.
Edited by Big Red Machine (Tue Aug 30 2005 05:31 PM)
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BTfromAZ
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Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
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Quote:
Well, along those same lines, why do people re-build their homes right on the beach/coast again, after a hurricane/storm just wiped it clean.
Go figure!!
Because they like living on the beach, and they look at how long it has been since the last such devestation and figure the odds favor them being able to live out the rest of their lives in their beautiful new homes. Also, it makes some difference (less than others will argue IMHO) that the government will provide flood and other insurance to people doing this. Some of them, not many I am arguing, but some, might not do it if they had to assume the entire economic risk themselves.
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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Vero Beach, FL
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though this may be off-topic, i felt it necessary to share some tsunami info with the group. Note: i'm on the advisory board for the linked group. If anyone would like copies of the videos, please let me know.
http://www.ricereliefcorp.org/gallery.aspx
tsunami video
the link to the video clips are powerful and disturbing. Also a view of how terrible things can be. This footage was provided directly to us and has not been distributed to wide channels that i'm aware of.
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Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer
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zmdz01
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Simi Valley, CA
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Here is a picture of New Orleans from a Coast Guard flight:
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teal61
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
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I don't believe he stayed at home , probably sheltered at his wifes work. His home probably has significant damage if not destroyed .
A sad sad day indeed. 
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native
Weather Guru
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Loc: SE Florida
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I PM'd Ed (Dunham) about FrankP, danielw and rick on boat in mobile but have not heard back as of yet.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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maybe Skeeto knows and can tell us something.....
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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This storm has caused many things to happen to those areas affected by , and they are:
1. The human toll. Going to be great
2. The suffering, no place to house your family, no water, no sewage, no nothing.
3. The economy there, as well as other parts of the nation will be affected by for years.
4. Long term, everyone will be affected, by the sites and sounds coming out of those areas hit hard. Can't imagine this is something that is easily going to go away.
This story will be told over and over again for decades to come. I was only 6 years old when Camille struck MS. Don't have any memories till school.
Hurricane , The storm that survived under the harshest enviroments, and one storm that would not go away.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
maybe Skeeto knows and can tell us something.....
Haven't heard anything yet...
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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
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BobVee: Can we talk here about those men and women of the emergency services for a minute? I will go on with the assumption it is permissible. We are going to need the national guard in this situation in the worst possible way, but I don't know if we will have them. The guard is already stretched very thin. I do not know the status of guard units from the affected and neighboring states--whether there are enough of them available to do the necessary job. This brings up the argument about the priority of the guard mission. Very recently, it was said by national guard leaders that the guard's priority is the "Federal mission" which is why we may not have sufficient guard personnel available now in this disaster. I do know that if we had a larger active duty military, we would have both guard units available at home to deal with disasters like this and troops necessary to carry out the military mission wherever our leadership feels it necessary.
In this situation, I heard the 2nd Fleet Commander say that they intended to send an assault ship task force to the affect coastal areas. An assault ship has extensive medical facilites including a 600 bed hospital ward and also it has numerous helocopters for relief work. Normally, I think the army would ultimately need to be deployed to the affected area as well, but do we now have troops available? I think it's a serious question whose answer I am waiting to see.
By the way--just for the record, I am retired after 26 years in the Navy Medical Corps so I know a bit about how dicey this mission is going to be.
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Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Using the army? hmmmm. I think it's a bad idea, but when you have Martial Law, sometimes even a bad idea is the best one available (if the alternatives are worse... which very well might be the case).
My big fear is the next few days may see increasing acts of desperation as people's sense of urgency to survive cause people to act in worse ways.
I know martial law is in effect, but does anyone have a link to what sort of emergency edicts have been made at this time?
(Curfews, restrictions on travel, consequences of looting, etc)
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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native
Weather Guru
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Loc: SE Florida
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As we are discussing the (most certain) economic effects of this storm on the nation as a whole, not to mention the local economy of the areas affected, let us not forget the emotional toll this event will take on all those affected/involved. Eventually, the cities, towns and businesses (for the most part I hope) will rebuild and recover (I use that term loosely) The emotional devistation I fear, are scars that will never fade.
My continuous prayers are with all affected and my good fortune in the form of donations to the RED CROSS.
Give what you can...it all adds up and it all helps.
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LkOkeechobeeF
Registered User
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Quote:
To clarify what you folks are saying or thinking of doing.....what I saw from Hurricanes Charlie, and Jeanne - individual efforts can hamper the organized efforts of FEMA, Red Cross etc. if you do not inquire as to what is needed and how you can help. They are the experts at this. the bad areas are inaccessible and are off limits. please stay out of the area and do not become another death or injury yourself. if you want help then contribute money to the disaster relief effort or call one of the organizations and ask how you can volunteer your time. many times people who started collections for the relieft efforts were collecting the wrong items that were not needed.
I am a longtime lurker here (3 years) and I was trying to think of ways to help so I e-mailed our local Red Cross as to what type of help is needed (money I know is the main thing) But I was wondering about food and clothes (Personal Items), I think I could get a decent donation. I also work for a local hospital and I know they always do something but they never go public with the donation drives, so I want to do that being I am on vacation this week I have the time to get it all pulled together and started.
GOD BLESS EVERYONE INVOLVED (Victims, Public Service, Volunteers and everyone thinking about these people).)
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G. J.
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: Tampa, FL
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Martial Law is NOT in effect, but they have ordered evacuation for NO. FNC just appologized for the misinformation.
-- edit -- some parrishes have implemented Martial Law - Jefferson is one.
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Tue Aug 30 2005 06:12 PM)
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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I remember Phil saying that he gave many of the regulars in the direct path of the storm his phone number. He did the same with me last year for and Jeanne. They probably can't call out though because of all the lines and towers down.
Changing subjects, someone mentioned possible development in the Bahamas and I found this from Miami NWS:
LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ATLC ALONG SURFACE TROUGH UNDERWAY AND SOMETHING TO BE MONITORED. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT EXTENDED PERIOD (WEEKEND) UNTIL POTENTIAL ATLC DEVELOPMENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED.
Anyone know anything about this?
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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I am watching CNN and they are doing IMO a good job right now. It is dealing with the emotional side and trying to comprehend what these victims are dealing with. The host even said if what these people are feeling and going through right now doesn't touch the hearts and emotion of everyone - what will. She even mentioned Industy, Businesses and OUR NEIGHBORS around the world need to help
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