Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Good evening from Atlanta....
Just a couple of notes.....
1) Earlier today, WSB and nationally syndicated talk show host Clark Howard was called into active duty as part of a type of back-up to the Georgia National Guard and was sent to Dobbins AFB to help with the evacuees from the Gulf Coast...all 48 hours after his wife having another child
2) Refugees from the storm-ravaged areas that have made it to Atlanta has forced the Red Cross to move one of their shelters to the Alexander Memorial Coliseum at Georgia Tech.
3) The local NBC affiliate 11Alive has raised almost $6 million in only a couple of days with doing most of their cut-ins from the Georgia Power building in Downtown Atlanta.
Take Care
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 365
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I think HF, and possibly Clark and/or Steve, mentioned the possibility of up to 3 distinct lows forming from the complex pattern in the Atlantic/Caribbean. Good call, and fascinating to see this come to fruition. From the 805pm discussion:
WEST ATLANTIC...
A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS SHAPING UP OVER THE W ATLC WATERS. THREE
DISTINCT SURFACE LOWS ARE OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
ISOBARIC ANALYSIS...A 1011 MB LOW E OF JACKSONVILLE NEAR
31N77W...1010 MB LOW NEAR 28N70W...AND A 1011 MB LOW S OF
BERMUDA NEAR 31N64W. . . . THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SAME
NEIGHBORHOOD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THEN THE RIPS
ONE LOW NEWD INTO THE N ATLC AND A SECOND LOW DRIFTS WWD TOWARDS
FLORIDA (BUT STILL SITTING OFF THE COAST BY LATE WED). THE
ULTIMATE OUTCOME WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE AND IF DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTS...SO STAY TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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For anyone interested in news about Pascagoula, check out www.gulflive.com. I am still spending every night web-fishing, and just found out that The Mississippi Press has been publising online every day since the storm. All local stuff.
One of the things I read in the Tuesday edition: the highest wind gust before instrument failure was 137mph, and stronger winds followed.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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Ok 2 Hrs and no posts so ill post 1.It looks to me that if something did develop in the west atlantic it would go out by looking at the models that do develop something.It would be nice if we could go a few weeks with nothing coming this way but i pray if a storm does have to come it stays away from the GOM as its Hurting everybody.
While im on everybody please for the love of GOD stop going out and filling your tanks to the rim.I was reading where some states are selling almost 2 times as much gas as people are filling 10 gallon cans along with there tank.Don't people understand they are the ones who are making this shortage and the ones who are driving up the prices of Gas.
Its insane how people complain about looting but gas panic buying is the same thing called hording.Only difference is its not illigal.So people who got 3/4 of a tank there is no need to stop and top if off.
Next storm that comes that extra gas lying around will serve as good fire starters.We still have this month before it slows down so lets pray we get 3 weeks of nothing then the slow down will begin i hope.
BTW the slowdown begins around when? is it not the end of this month?
Edited by ralphfl (Sat Sep 03 2005 03:11 AM)
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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 62
Loc: apopka
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Yet another effect of .
From the National Data Buoy Center:
"As a result of Hurricane , the Buoy, C-MAN, Ship, and Drifting Buoy Observations via www.ndbc.noaa.gov are unavailable.
The National Data Buoy Center has been evacuated and communications lines remain down. The extent of damage to the facilities and equipment is not fully known at the present time."
The NDBC is one of my favorite sites.
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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru
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Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
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(quote)¿BTW the slowdown begins around when? is it not the end of this month?(/quote)
You are correct Ralph in an historical sense. Oct. usually is when the tail off commences.
I wonder what the odds of another GOM 'cane during the rest of this season are. And what if, G-d forbid, in the upper central Gulf once again?
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biochic
Registered User
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Posts: 2
Loc: Ocala, FL
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Hey guys and gals…I have been a lurker… and I have been very impressed with all predictions and assumptions…let me tell you that there are a lot of things that individuals go thru that are just as bad as losing your home to a flood or hurricane that has never crossed your mind. I only hope that you can cross the lines of blame to help all the people that are hurting …I am NOT Liberal or conservative…just someone who has been there. Let people know when they are in danger…but please don’t judge them when they don’t listen. How many times did your Mom tell you to do something that you didn’t do it…?
This is not a good place for them or us as a nation…Who is supporting who?
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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It's scarey, I wish the season was over already. I wish they would all be fish spinners but I also know that will not happen. So Lee and Maria should not threaten land so will we have Nate in a day or so?
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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru
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Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
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...so will we have Nate in a day or so?
Probably not so soon if at all.
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Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_
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tashina
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 13
Loc: Austin, TX
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I was just watching a rerun of the American Hurricane Relief Concert on streaming video and they were doing a little prerecorded section on the weekend before the hurricane. They showed people hanging out on the beach all unsuspecting and then played a clip of a met showing 's turn to the North, and voiced over the guy and talked about 's "sudden turn to the North". Technically it was sudden, because it was a pretty sharp turn, but they absolutely made it sound like it was a suprising development. How misleading is THAT? They are broadcasting this nationally and acting like these people could have no no idea that a storm was coming their way until the "sudden turn to the North". Guess they've never heard of a cone of probability!
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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The did an excellent job, if people would have listened to them and heeded the warning alot of things might be different right now. Unfortunately people don't always listen. My hat is off to they do a great job. 
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Looks like Maria could become our next hurricane according to the at 8:00
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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This headline was in our local newspaper "The Ledger" this morning. It said,"Maria, no Threat Yet."
I am asking a meterologist or smart person, Is this a hint at something that is coming or is this medica hype again.
The last I heard, Maria and Lee were spinners. Now I am hearing that Maria could be the next hurricane, which is ok by me if she stays away from the US or any Caribbean Islands. Is some one at the news office, playing with the models and not understanding the other factors that go into model reading? This is no time for the press to be sending out grabby headlines about future storms. Please help to clarify this before any one else gets a hold of this nonsense.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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I don't know too much but it did say in the 8:00 am discussion it could become our next hurricane
moving nw and intensifying
Edited by DebbiePSL (Sat Sep 03 2005 01:45 PM)
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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the climatological long term peak for the season is in about a week. we have had one system form already this month, and it should become a hurricane as the surmises. maria may not have a whole lot of company, given the current pattern... aside from what could be a potentially weak storm or two.
maria is moving nw on the general forecast track which should take it up east of bermuda. still a variety of solutions via the global scenarios.. which show anything from a stall to interaction with low pressure to the west, to dissipation. the appearance of maria isn't one that favors dissipation... i wouldn't be surprised if maria becomes a solid hurricane before something finally catches the storm and shunts it out into the north atlantic... in a few days. a cat 2-3 range storm is within reason.
old 92L is no longer being tracked.. a trade wind surge overran it and flattened the low pressure area out, pushed all of the convection out to the surge line ahead of the system. it's very weak and mostly devoid of convective activity... and the low level convergence forcing from earlier has broken down. nothing to get it going again.. wave energy should propagate westward as long as nothing exists to get it active again.. unless the weakness left from that upper low maria developed next to is still nearby to create some differential and evacuation mechanism for convection.
the large surface trough swinging from east of florida to north of puerto rico up to near bermuda... has three focal areas. the center one north of puerto rico seems to be developing, as sustained convection and low cloud movements suggest a tropical low may be forming there. if it develops, it will move slowly and eventually to the northeast. closer to bermuda the area is ragged with an elongated surface turning... many globals track maria into this general area and show the storm merging into it... perhaps absorbing it. the westernmost of the focal points is north of the bahamas, and presents the biggest forecast problem. most models show a low pressure or some surface entity in this area.. sure enough most current surface plots show a weak open-type low near the persistent convective burst in this area. some of the more reliable global models that don't meld the entire region into a broad low show this feature bobbing around off the east coast and deepening slightly as shortwaves pass by to the north.. euro and have it swoop by the southeast coast around the middle of next week. none show a particularly tropical depiction, but based on climatology and a less-than typical baroclinic appearance, it could well be a tropical or subtropical feature.. albeit likely a weak one.
there is less support today, although some globals still show a weak wave of low pressure moving west across the gulf.
occluding low near the azores shouldn't have enough time to acquire subtropical characteristics.
the synoptic pattern right now is one that doesn't favor traditional longtrack-type storm paths. the african wave train appears to have subsided some, has become essentially a non-factor (perhaps a very weak inhibitor), and is still oscillating.. indicating the tendency for weak, gappy ridging and frequent troughs with NAO responding by staying near neutral, and not providing clear pathways for storms to take. there isn't much to move the big weakness off the east coast and that should keep any atlantic systems for the next week or so offshore... globals not suggesting much action in the deep tropics. maybe something will struggle though.
what we're waiting for now.. and what should reactivate the tropical activity, is the polar low diving to its early fall position near northern canada.. instead of being centered near the pole with sluggish, unpronounced longwave features to the south. when that happens, it should result in a more conventional synoptic pattern. i suspect it will happen around mid-month.
HF 1501z03september
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Sep 03 2005 04:02 PM)
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DJINFLA
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Huuhhh? Hank, your knowledge is too far out of my reach. Could you please translate into "Jethro-ese" for those of us who don't even know the basics of weather . . .(I can tell when it's raining, however)
Is that mess off the East Coast just going to be a rainmaker, or do you see something a bit bigger?
Thanks!
uhh... sorry. i get a little carried away sometimes. something is going to try to develop out there.. not sure how tropical it will be. if it is there, yeah, probably just a breezy onshore, rainy kind of thing. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Sep 03 2005 04:00 PM)
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Translation.
No other storms for now. Things with the global weather pattern happening that don't support the formation of new storms. That will probably change in a week and storms will form then.
That's the plain-talk, non-tech version of what he said. 
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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is this little system heading to the east coast? and if so will it work its way over to the west coast of florida?
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HanKFranK
User
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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wx watcher that thing doesn't really exist yet. there's a mess of models making a low east of florida... some move the low level feature across but most take the mid level feature northward along the atlantic coast. if it's a deeper system that's what would probably happen.
nutshell of what's happened today:
maria, unless it undergoes some big decrease in convection, will be upgraded to a hurricane later. the cat 2-3 idea is probably realistic.
lee's circulation actually perked back up today.. baroclinic forcing is probably what did that, and it's nearing cooler waters.
92L is back up on . there is some isolated type convection working its way back in near the broad turning.. still bears watching as it moves westward towards the caribbean.
surprised no invest is up on the feature near 23/66. looks decent on IR, there seemed to be a closed windfield on it on earlier visible.. and it's being persistent. proximity to maria is all that would work against this one.. but they don't seem to be interacting. may form into a weak tropical cyclone, and eventually interact with maria.
the real thing to watch is whatever stews near the bahamas... may be a system trying to form around there by mid week.
HF 2346z03september
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I have been watching the Bahamas and mentally trying to will it to disperse all day. My critters are acting strangely today which is now shaping into a behavior pattern I am familiar with. They become more likely to stay under my feet, pick at each other, and in the case of my birds, screech and holler loudly all day only to be extra quiet when the storm looms close. All of the aforementioned is going on, except the birds are still in screeching mode. Even if nothing forms the animals are experiencing the weather change.
I also had to feed instant grits to my new fire ant bed I found. They greedily attacked the instant grits and hopefully will explode like they are supposed to.... that aside, the fact that they are building beds above the ground mitigates a period of uncertainty. We will see if the bed is still there in the morning.... This is the critter report which is just as meterologically sound as saying the models indicate that a storm will form 166 hours from now in a general location of the gulf states.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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