ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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Quote:
Is that blob in the BOC anything that I should keep a close eye on ?
Yikes... another nightowl blob watcher!
Someone else is watching it now too..
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 080928
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005
...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Guess we'll pull out the ol Bear Watch...
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Now this is different??? I am confused. The has Ophelia meandering just off of the coast of North Florida for the next several days. I was surfing the net and checking out the Accuweather site. They offer a completely different path.
Accuweather has not had a good track record recently. Only one (as far as I can tell) of the models suggest the possibility of going directly west into the gulf. I feel there is no support for their solution. Ophilia is in a col, kind of a dip between several high pressure areas with no real desire to move. Any movement will likely be sllightly north, maybe east, maybe a loop, but not likely directly west per Accuweather. Whatever happens will likely NOT be very fast.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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B.C.Francis
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Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Yea, your right. What if the storm wobbles to the west south west and gets a little more organized this morning and gets closer to our coast. My daughter takes a bus from Indiatlantic to Cocoa Beach Junior Senior High School every day. She said don`t worry about storm, its nothing like what we went through last year yet. That right there shows me that these coastal kids might not show it , but they sure keep an eye on whats shakin out in the Atlantic.........Weatherchef
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Well so far it appears our Ophelia is doing the same thing as she did in Hamlet. Standing around ringing her hands and weeping but not making decisions to do anything else. (in this case could be good)
Having said that, does anyone know of any warm water eddies she might get into that could make her angry? Is the Gulf stream cooler now that Kat has stirred things up in the Gulf?
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 62
Loc: apopka
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I'm not discounting the Accuweather idea.
Looking at the water vapor loop, there is a ridge that is from the Atlantic Ocean to Texas. It starts curving NE just north and east of where Ophelia is located.
The and the models called for a drift in a north direction (NNW, NW, NE, NNE have been mentioned at one time or another) However, the storm has not drifted north at all. In fact, it is SW of it's position (barely) of 24 hrs ago.
Unless it starts drifting or moving north, at least 75-100 miles north, it will miss the push to the NE and then will be pushed into FLorida. And this morning, it looks to be drifting in a southerly direction.
I'm not an expert, but just my thoughts. I would agree with Accuweather on this one.
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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It does seem to be closer to the east coast from what I am hearing. Will keep an eye on this one for sure.
I feel for the folks that have come to Florida to escape the gulf coast area. I would think any type of storm would be hard to deal with at this time. Just the name HURRICANE would do it for me if I were one of them.
I am going to watch this one and not agree with anyone at this time as to where it is going. I think we all know they have minds of their own and will do their own thing in their own way.
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I noticed that the plot on this O storm looks llike a ball of yarn that my kitten just got through playing with. It takes good vision to follow the lines!! It is overcast here and windy. This is the middle of the central most part of the Flordia peninsula. Ophelia is going to go down as the big O for sure.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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I noticed that when I woke up this morning that the storm was "70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA."
Overall movement in 12 hours:
.4N .6 W
She's drunken I tell you!
<figure of speach>
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 08 2005 12:27 PM)
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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I know, it's nuts. Funny thing is when I got up and checked this a.m. she actually looks closer to me then when I went to bed. Go figure. Crazy storm. Warnings have been lifted and the weather is far worse now then when we had them...lol!
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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8:00am numbers are in:
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
Put another dink in the W column
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Ophelia looks a little ill on satellite pictures this morning, though the radar appearance is somewhat more symmetrical. It appears the shear may have lessened somewhat, but there is some very dry air just to the north of the system.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I know, it's nuts. Funny thing is when I got up and checked this a.m. she actually looks closer to me then when I went to bed. Go figure. Crazy storm. Warnings have been lifted and the weather is far worse now then when we had them...lol!
Looking at the water vapor and IR loops, it looks like the storm has weakened substantially in the last several hours, with the "secondary ball" actually looking better than the primary one. Yet the winds have increased to 60 and the pressure stablized a < 990 (989 currently although it got down to 985 overnight). Dry air intruding? Looks like a lot of dry air north of the storm on the water vapor loop. Maybe it'll fizzle out after all.
ETA: yeah, Thunder... the radar actually looks MUCH BETTER but the satellite WORSE.... what is it with this storm???
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Thu Sep 08 2005 12:03 PM)
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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With tropical weather, no one in their right mind will totally discount any possibility and given the proximity of the storm to the east coast, it is prudent to make plans for the worst case scenerio. However, one also needs to plan for what is most likely. The closeness of the storm to the coast amplifies all of the effects of even small wobbles so it is likely that East Central Florida *will* see significant effects from Ophilia. I just don't feel the Accuweather solution is very llikely, not impossible, just unlikely. More likely is continued wobbles alternately bringing the center close to shore and then away from shore and covering N and S movement as well. Overall, the track will probably tend N over the next day or so, with wobbles back to the SW, SE, NE adnausium. For the sake of those in the gulf area, I hope this is the solution, not the one proposed by Accuweather..
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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This is for anyone. I wonder how much upwelling can occur with a developing storm like this, I guess the Gulf Stream will just keep pumping warm water under it.
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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First look at the radar Presentation:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml
Sure looks like she is filling in the blanks.
Then look at the last couple of frames of the visible loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
What do you think
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indianapolis
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Looks like Accuweather changed it's tune. Now it's going north.
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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I am concerned about the area over the Bay of Campeche. Any chance this could organize and if so were would it go?
Also, is it my imagination, or is Ophelia looking ragged?
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Ophelia is more ragged right now, you can tell by looking at water vapor or IR satellite loops that it flared up overnight and died down this morning, but seems to be rebuilding again now. In the meantime the center has gotten more ragged and some dry air in the east and west sections of the center have affected it. I'm hoping this will hold off strengthening today. It's still too close to comfort for me, and at this point wobbles can mean a lot.
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Beaumont, TX
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What about the area in the Bay of Campeche? What are the chances that could form into something tropical?
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
What about the area in the Bay of Campeche? What are the chances that could form into something tropical?
I haven't had the chance to look at that, someone else might know more. A quick glance seems like it would take a few days for anything to happen there. I'm not a met so please don't take my word for things.
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