FlaMommy
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Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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well yea i understand that...but was wondering if we could expect any stronger condtitions than what we just had....i know its not comign this way...but was curious of stronger conditions...thank you
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The 12Z brings the pressure down to around 938 mb in 36 hours, followed by slow weakening to a storm around 952 mb at landfall near Freeport, TX in about 90 hours. That is about 6-8 mb lower along the path than in the last run, so it is depicting a stronger system developing. It has been fairly consistent about bringing a 950-960 mb storm into Texas, which would typically correspond to a cat 3 intensity system.
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Margie
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Last night before I went to bed I predicted 979mb and 95mph for the 5am, but I was off by almost 8 hours! Now at 978 and 100mph.
OK right now a favorable environment for continued intensification, for maybe six more hours.
Can anyone talk about wind shear predictions over the next 6-12 hours?
Am I seeing things or is the shear eroding the transverse banding to the west? Will the higher area of shear N of the Yucatan Pen. stay put? if so then after about six to eight more hours I don't see a favorable environment w.r.t. either shear or water temp.
So even if she gets up to a solid Cat 3 after leaving the Keys this aft, I don't see that as a problem for the US (for Cuba's northern shore, and for shipping interests). Back down to a Cat 2 by 24 hours from now.
Keys are going to get hammered in the meantime tho!
EDIT -- but obviously I haven't a clue...the 2pm discussion keeps her a Cat 3 for three days!
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Tue Sep 20 2005 06:09 PM)
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lunkerhunter
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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these came out 3 hours ago....I think.
Wind Shear
Wind Shear Tendency
To me it looks like increasing shear in the Eastern gulf, moderate shear in the Central Gulf and no shear in the Western Gulf.
Factoring in the shear, I don't think the SST's & Energy are there to create a Cat 4/5.
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The Force 2005
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Loc: Philadelphia
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Margie,
I don't agree with that assessment of shear. Yes it is there however sligh, but will back off when solidily gets into the GOM. There is nothing keeping from strengthening to a poss CAT4/5 in 48-72 hrs. Do I think she will weaken prior to landfall wherever that maybe, well it all depends where of course, because of the layout of the coast is not the same in all locations.
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Lsr1166
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Loc: Tallahassee, Florida
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What are the chances of following a path similar to the one Kate did in 1985? They both formed in about the same location, on 11/20 Kate was located at 23.9 & 83.5 (which is almost 2 degrees west of where is now) and on 11/22 Kate was at 30.2 & 85.1 (just west of Tallahassee, Florida). I looked in the archives and it said although Kate was a late November storm, the weather conditions and sea surface temperatures were more like what you would find in late September.
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Elaine H
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FLMommy - We are only going to get 25 - 32 gusts and some rain through the day and that is it. (Valrico)
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MikeC
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Quote:
What are the chances of following a path similar to the one Kate did in 1985? They both formed in about the same location, on 11/20 Kate was located at 23.9 & 83.5 (which is almost 2 degrees west of where is now) and on 11/22 Kate was at 30.2 & 85.1 (just west of Tallahassee, Florida). I looked in the archives and it said although Kate was a late November storm, the weather conditions and sea surface temperatures were more like what you would find in late September.
Fairly low, the momentum toward the west right now is a bit too much to see a Kate like forecast. And the situation is different in the air patterns, i'd bet further west or south over north and that far east if anything.
See Kate/Rita plotted:
http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?2005s18-1985s11
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FlaMommy
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Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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thank you very much elaine i appreciate it...was just wondering..i have a 2 yr old who is afraid of storms...so didnt hurt to ask
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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That's what I'm looking at, but I don't see long-term forecast values, only +3hr. Thanks much.
To force 2005 -- there is no way that the water temps in the GOM would support strengthening to Cat 4/5 level. Maybe some little strengthening around western tip of Cuba if no wind sheer there, but in the western GOM how do you see that happening? However I see increasing wind shear as well.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Tue Sep 20 2005 06:23 PM)
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Lee-Delray
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Boca has been more gloomy than anything else. We had a band at 4AM, but that's really been about it. Some rain this AM & a little wind. Right now there's maybe a 10 -15 mph breeze. 
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The Force 2005
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Loc: Philadelphia
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Margie,
SST's may not be what they were post , however, they are very warm for a body of water that is relative motionless without a storm over top of it. Temps still running around 30C.
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Thunderbird12
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The 12Z SHIPS intensity model goes berserk with , bringing it up to 125 knots (145 mph, strong cat 4) in 48 hours, before slowly weakening it prior to landfall (forecast landfall is between 72 and 96 hours):
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGHUR (click on the "Previous Version" link on that page if you don't see the output for right away)
That is quite a change from the previous SHIPS runs which kept the max intensity around 100 knots. I imagine the much higher initial intensity for the latest run played a role in the intensity jump.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Margie,
SST's may not be what they were post , however, they are very warm for a body of water that is relative motionless without a storm over top of it. Temps still running around 30C.
Surface temps, SSTs, yes, but not deep water.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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There is currently a tornado warning for eastern Broward county, and also for the Upper Keys in Monroe county. Take appropriate shelter if you are in those areas.
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Random Chaos
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Loc: Maryland
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Not deep water, but not shallow either. In fact, the track is forcast to take is over the warmest deep water in the gulf:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/z26.watl.20050920.gif
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Your post raises a question I have about the dynamics of a tropical storm. I lived through Isabel, which hit my area as a bare Cat 1, yet did enormous damage. Since Isabel was once a much stronger storm, I wonder if she was therefore more powerful than a similar storm that was never stronger. Therefore, will have more punch as a 105 kt storm if it was formerly 125 rather than one never having been stronger than 105?
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
Edited by Ed in Va (Tue Sep 20 2005 06:53 PM)
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The Force 2005
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Loc: Philadelphia
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From Accuweather:
Hurricane will take dead aim at the Texas Coast later this week making landfall late Friday or early Saturday. At ground zero, highest winds will exceed 100 mph, the storm surge will inundate the coastline and rainfall will be excessive. This will produce widespread damage to structures, power will be out and oil platforms will have to be evacuated. All residents living along the coast from Corpus Cristi to Lake Charles need to have a plan if an evacuation order is given later this week. Let me restate that. An evacuation order will be given later this week. Its just a matter of where the worst impact of the hurricane is going to be. This graphic shows where we think the full fury of will be realized. Wouldn't it be ironic if the city of Houston became the prime target for later this week. If you recall, that is where most of the New Orleans refugees went to escape the devastation created by Hurricane . Houston's emergency management officials are in the initial stages of preparation, advising residents of the danger posed by . Close to 18,000 evacuees are still in shelters in Texas.
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WeatherNut
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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As far as SST's go...is it significant that is moving much faster than did...thus not tapping the heat as deeply as ...say a slower moving storm? I'm not sure...and I have not read in the posts where that has been thrown into the mix.
Seems as though a quickly moving hurricane would only need to tap the upper surface heat before it was already into the next area
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Convergence
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Ellicott City, Maryland
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Quote:
Surface temps, SSTs, yes, but not deep water.
Keep in mind that is also moving at a good clip, so upwelling will be somewhat supressed.
edit: beaten by above 
Edited by Convergence (Tue Sep 20 2005 07:00 PM)
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