Clark
Meteorologist
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This evening, there is both good and bad news with regards to . The bad news is that the storm has intensified much more than expected and currently sits as the third most intense storm in recorded history in the Atlantic basin. The good news is that it is nearing the absolute peak of its intensity as it is nearing both an eyewall cycle and slightly cooler oceanic temperatures within the next 6-12hr and should weaken somewhat from there. Intensity sits at 898mb right now but is likely slightly lower -- closer to 895mb. The next recon will be in the storm at 6z/2a ET to give us further information on the storm's intensity. It may just reach it at it's peak.
For the first time today, microwave imagery conclusively show an eyewall replacement cycle within the storm. This morning, there were hints of an outer eyewall trying to form with about 25% coverage. That increased to about 50% through late this afternoon but still was not definitive. Now, however, as of a 0z pass, an outer eyewall has formed with only three minor gaps in coverage and is beginning to move inward. Given the coverage of the eyewall and the normal timing for these events, I estimate that an eyewall replacement will begin to occur by 12Z Thursday with a subsequent drop in intensity. How much it weakens, however, is still to be determined given a very favorable upper-level pattern with three outflow jets -- one to the north associated with a trough of low pressure near Arkansas/Tennessee, one to the east associated with the upper-low shearing Philippe, and a weaker one to the south associated with an upper-low in the NW Caribbean -- and favorable oceanic heat content conditions. Best bet is that it weakens to around 920mb/high-end category 4 intensity and maintains that toward landfall. It is unknown as to whether another replacement cycle will occur before landfall, but given that landfall is ~48hr away, my gut instinct says that one will. However, I still anticipate that a category 4 hurricane will be making landfall along the Texas coastline late Friday or early Saturday.
After taking a jog toward the WNW in response to the trough to the north earlier today, has settled back into a general westward motion. Model guidance is now tightly clustered on a landfall between Galveston and Victoria early Saturday morning. Intensity estimates range between high end category 3 and low end category 4 at landfall, which as noted above seems reasonable. The forecast swath from late Monday night largely remains unchanged from Corpus Christi to Galveston, though I would extend that slightly toward the TX/LA border to account for the inclusion of Galveston Bay as a prime target for this system. The Houston Chronicle ran a story earlier this year using model and research data to project $40-$50 billion in damage from a category 4 or 5 storm hitting the area. Even if the storm comes in 25-50mi west of Galveston, the angle at which it does so will still bring a massive surge into the bay and result in the center of the storm passing directly over Houston as a category 3/4 system.
Residents of the entire Texas coastline within the projected path of the storm and particularly those in Corpus Christi, Victoria, Galveston, and Houston should rush all preparations to completion and evacuate if necessary and/or told to do so by authorities. The potential for an Andrew-like impact upon the region is very real and this is not a storm to take lightly. I repeat, if you are along the coastline, please evacuate. If you are in Houston, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Things are only going to go downhill from here for the next 3 days. Residents further inland, such as those in Austin, Waco, San Antonio, and Dallas should be prepared for impacts inland similar to those encountered inland along 's path, such as seen in Jackson, MS and Meridian, MS. Model guidance is suggesting that the storm will stall in the 5-6 day period over northern Texas, bringing about the potential for flooding rains and torrential downpours. If you are in a low-lying area, please be ready to get out if the flood waters begin to rise.
Residents of New Orleans, particularly St. Bernard and Plaquemines Parishes, should be aware that wave action is very strong with this storm on the north side and will likely flood areas that were devestated by just 3-3.5 weeks ago. It is unclear as to how much rainfall the region may receive from after landfall, but using other systems further toward the east as a proxy, rainfall amounts of 3-5" are possible. This would cause localized flooding of already flooded areas in Orleans Parish as well, bringing about a situation that must be watched closely through the week.
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