chrisinSC
Unregistered
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I have been a regular visitor to this site for years but very rarely post as I am a novice (though I have learned much from all of you). I lived through Hugo in 1989 and get chills when thinking about the effects this storm is going to have on LA. Unless something changes drastically over the next 24 hours, Lili will certainly be categorized with the Andrew's and Hugo's as three of the most powerful storms of our time. To all those in the storm's path, God Bless and be safe. Thanks to you all for making this a fantastic site and allowing us amateurs to learn a thing or two.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Central Louisiana is in the direct target zone of Lili...I hope everyone is prepared and I also hope that everyone that should be out is out. Lili is definitely going to challenge Andrew...he had a central pressure of 931 or 932, I think Lili will strongly challenge that or beat it.
My intensity forecast, unfortunetly, is turning out to be very good and perhaps a bit low. I said 120 knots at landfall...I'm too low. Going to go ahead and say 130 knots now. If Lili hits a populated area she may be just as bad as Andrew.
Kyle is meandering around. I'd expect that the track will verify, but he will be out there a long time in any event.
Gulf Coast, batten the hatches if you haven't already! Good luck to all in the storm's path.
Kevin
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FlaRebel
Unregistered
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According to the data at the , Lili rates as the 15th strongest storm of all time right now. Of course, those stats were at landfall. However, with 24 hours plus til landfall, I would expect Lili to easily make it to the top 10 and looking hard at the top 5 of all time considering she dropped 12 MB in the last 6 hours since 8 this morning. I don't think the "storm of the century" label was that far off the mark at all, even though the century is still young. Good luck to everyone in Lili path.
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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7mb drop about three hours.. yeah, i'd call it rapid intensification. funny that lili is going right across isidore's path a week ago, and is doing all this deepening. the forecast landfall intensity is now 125kt.. if it does that, this will be the strongest u.s. hurricane since Andrew. i dont think lili will get too much stronger.. say, deepen much past 930mb.. but it could. official track now to sw louisiana instead of the central part.. this is what ive been expecting to happen. might hit cameron head on.. and produce results like audrey did in '57. inland damage probably very heavy around lake charles up towards leesville.
interesting that bastardi is talking about kyle lurching westward. the thing is nearing hurricane strength again.. the eyespot i saw this morning is becoming a real eye. bastardi says it could go west at 15mph tomorrow.. considering that kyle has rarely gone over 10mph during its 11 day life span.. id be impressed to see that.. dont expect it. modeling now more or less takes kyle a little west as a weak system and then merges it into the trough following recurving lili. throw in a stronger system.. hell, i dont know what happens.
94L.. none the better. still plenty of models trying to resolve something out in the central atlantic, and i want my marco this week.
frank p.. hey, about the storm of the century semantics.. i know what youre talking about. this is a big deal sw louisiana storm, rare. theyve had audrey in 1957 and one like it in august 1918.. im not sure of any others that compare. but if you wanna get technical, this isnt a storm of the century but more of a half century storm, since this seems to happen about every 40 years. nothing to mock, i know.. i dont live at the coast so havent seen any camilles.. hugo and Opal just gave me winds near/at hurricane force 100 miles inland, not the real mccoy. ive got the feeling that cameron louisiana will be destroyed in about 24 hours.. anybody else sensing that?
HF 1836z02october
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Brett
Unregistered
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Andrew was 922 milibars at landfall. Hugo was 934. Lili is already 941 and dropping fast. Its anyone's guess if the warmer SST's will have any effect on her or not, but she is certainly in range for top 10, perhaps even top 5. Camille was 909....
BE SAFE all of you. God, this one is a bad one...
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Well my last post last night I said I couldn't figure out why Lili wasn't forcasted to be a Cat 4 by landfall...now I can see why I couldn't figure that out. This is going to be one hell of a storm.
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tom5r
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
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I agree Hankfrank! I foresee total destruction in Lili's path. I remember Arlen Spector comparing Andrew's destruction as being equivalent to a multi nuclear strike. I fear LA is going to experience the same scenario. May God have mercy on all in the area. 
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Bill
Unregistered
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OK, everyone take a deep breath....
First, it MAY get to cat 5...you have to remember as it approaches the coast:
1. eyewall replacement cycle fluctuations---it may get to Cat 5, but will it be a Cat 5 at landfall?
2. N/NW Gulf water temps are lower than where Lili is now...this may retard the strengthening. In fact, I've noticed a little pool of cooler water just to the right of the path..Isidore?
3. Dry air entrainment and shear may begin to pick up in the next twenty four hours.
4. Remember Opal (re: cycles)...it was nearly a five, lowered to a borderline 2/3 in a few hours just before landfall. Granted, the environment was a lot less favorable..just a cautionary note.
Having said all that---I still think it will for sure be a three, probably a four, chance of a five at landfall.
Next----where is it going?
First, it is moving to the right of the forecast track. Unless it corrects, this deviation will magnify over time. And, it may turn more to the N..we do not know yet. This slight deviation is the first 'crack' in the modelling 'armor'. We will know if it really mean something by 5...and if the storm also slows down, there could be a considerable track deviation.
What I am saying is that a 40 mile deviation to the right (what we have now) does not necessarily translate to 40 miles at landfall..it will probably be more.
As for me, believe the landfall 'marker posts' will be Central La coast eastward to Pascagoula...and actually, ultimately. I favor Pascagoula, maybe clipping Buras on the way- or even NO, depending on time/angle of the turn.
Time will tell!
IHS,
Bill
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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
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Help is on its way. South Fl. to the rescue. I was on the Florida Turnpike at noon and a large convoy of FPL trucks on the way to restore power after whatever happens. Returning the favor in a time of need.
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Go Boilermakers
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Rick in Mobile
Unregistered
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I was kidding about the cat 5 stuff...come on...simmer down lili!!!!
My worst fears were it would hit NO....as a biggee....shoot...it could hit ME!.....
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
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Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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Bill, do you really feel it is slowing down and moving a little north?
Southern
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Pretty gutsy call Bill... don't necessarily agree with it but gutsy no less.... However, I do agree with most of the rest of your post .... slight deviate now could mean larger later (without corrections) .... remains to be seen if the deviation from track continues.... Hard to believe it could get to five based on your rationale below... they are just so scarce to come buy... every thing has to be perfect atmosherically....
Latest model runs have have shifted to the east by approximately 1 degree or so...
HF.... you get my point.... for all practical purposes 100 year events related to weather seems to occur every 50 years of so... next 24 hours is going to be some intense stress for those in the target zone...
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mbfly
Weather Guru
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Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Pascagoula, huh ?? That's a little too close for comfort...... I was still thinking more toward the west; TX/LA border. Regardless, the poor souls in LA, NO, etc are going to catch Hell. I hope they have prepared and that none of them is thinking this will be a "fun" experience. Having gone through Frederick in '79, I know now what it is like to go into such a storm anticipating not much more than a 12 hour thunderstorm ! Believe me, spending the night in the hallway of a little bitty wood frame house with a husband, a 2 yr old, a German shephard and a Chihuahua with winds at 100mph or so was NOT fun. I wouldn't want to do it again.  This track deviation to the north that you mentioned ............ is that definite or just a remote possible maybe ?? All the horror and destruction aside, I don't even want enough effect here in Mobile to lose electricity ! I have a sick elderly mother with me who just came home from the hospital this morning. Her oxygen is dependent on having electrical power (although I do have approx 24 hrs of tank oxygen) O.K., I'm obviously rambling on here out of nervousness but, again, my main question is how strong the possibility is that this booger will deviate from it's projected path and have any impact closer to MS/AL. It's quite breezy here already now, and some wind gusts that look almost as strong as what we had last week with Izzy. No rain yet, but the clouds are gathering. BTW, I've been reading and relying on this fabulous web site and board for several years now..................... don't know what I'd do without it ! Thank you all for your knowledge and awareness and the information you pass on and provide. My prayers are with everyone affected by this monster.
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Bill
Unregistered
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Southern--
I am not sure about the slowing down...it was at 16mph, slowed to 14mph, then is up to 15mph at latest update...so, a slight slowing.
RE: moving more north/east, yes, it has deviated, but it remains to be seen if this is a jog or other temporary motion. I am beginning to see some evidence that the s/sw flow to the west of the storm is beginning to impact on the outflow level---TPC/NHC admits as much when they said that outflow is restricted in the sw quad (in a discussion earlier today).
IHS,
Bill
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Rickinmobile
Unregistered
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Hurricanes tend to go 5 degrees right of the axis of clouds...this one has the axis heading more north than west. It will turn north, possibly even begin going east...before landfall. I am in total agreement with Bill.
One thing for sure. It is WAY to early for ANYONE to say where it will go. Unbelievable that the "experts" have the stupidity to assume they "Know"....Now there is NO WAY New Orleans can be evacuated...in fact...if this thing makes a 5...which I think we all know now is possible...and then makes an unexpected landfall somewhere that is in a moderate danger zone...then the people will be stuck with a killer storm...and NO TIME TO GET OUT>>......
sorry...but for those who kept saying it would go yadd yadda yaddda.....in Tx...they IGNORED the fact that NO ONE can EVER predict where it would go...and it is and should be up the the authorities to tell them it could go anywhere!!!!!!
too late now...hope it stays west where the people are preparing..cause if it heads towards Mississippi and Alabama......
party's over if it does...no one is ready...No one here in Mobile is even worrying about it...PERIOD...they all think it is hitting way west of here...
so I think it is a sham...the "experts" are too cocky...and this one will humble them...they ought to be saying ..."NOT sure where it will go"...not projecting some point as though they knew....
really makes me mad...as you can probably tell.....
I fear a lot of deaths if this track keeps heading east....I really do.
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
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Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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Thanks Bill for your quick answer. Im just a novice here and I have learned alot, but have alot more to learn. I have been using this site for several years. This board has been a real help to me.
Southern
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J.J.
Unregistered
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I don't think Lili will get much stronger than 115 kts--according to SST maps, the waters of the Gulf cannot support a hurricane stronger than 115 kts.
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Bill
Unregistered
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In viewing the latest loops, the storm is clearly moving more to the north, it still has not crossed 90 west, in fact, if you look at the 3pm pic on the front page of this site, you can see it is still clearly east of 90 west...the loops show a turn more to the n, probably 320-325 degrees in the last hour or two.
This of course may change, stay tuned....if this trend continues, seems like may make some adjustments at 5...look like a straight line would take it to the central LA coast now, but, with rare (Andrew) exceptions, hurricanes do not move in straight lines.....
IHS,
Bill
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cappycat
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 16
Loc: Raceland, LA
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We are ready to weather the storm...at least all the preparations are done. Not sure if anyone is ever ready for a cat 4!!! We are east of the projected track, but still shaking in our shoes. The forecasters here are saying that New Orleans is in the clear (but to stay alert and prepared) but I'd rather err on the side of caution. We are boarded up for bear... still I was shocked at how many homes were NOT boarded up. Folks here are either of the persuasion that we are fine, Lake Charles is going to get it, or they are running around in a panic. Since we left all our boards up and ready since Isidore, we are just prepared. SC La is not out of the woods yet, in my uneducated opinion!
Keep us Cajuns in your prayers, folks.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Winds up to 140 mph!!!!!!!!! WoW!!!!
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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