MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Tropical Storm Tammy forms off the East Central Florida coast, tropical storm warnings up.
Tropical Storm warnings are up from Cocoa Beach, northward to the south santee River in South Carolina.
Tammy is quickly moving north northwest, bringing much rain and wind to east and northeastern Florida and eventually Georgia and South Carolina Some portions of the east coast will feel Tropical Storm force winds, but most of the activity remains north and east of the center.
Report Tammy conditions in your area here
A spin off area from Stan, near the Yucatan, is also worth watching over the next few days as this has the potential to impact the western coast of Florida. However chances are rather low for things to develop here in the short term.
More to come during the day.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Event Related Links
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tammy
Animated model plot of Tammy
93L Yucatan Area
94L
|
HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
|
|
Amazing. I'm surprised without a plane it's a name and not a depression. Then again what's the difference. I'm more interested in what is coming from the Yucatan. Seems like a little spin in the convection on water vapor loop. It's heading NE towards Florida. Don't know if it will amount to anything. At this rate Alpha ain't far away.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
Amazing. I'm surprised without a plane it's a name and not a depression. Then again what's the difference. I'm more interested in what is coming from the Yucatan. Seems like a little spin in the convection on water vapor loop. It's heading NE towards Florida. Don't know if it will amount to anything. At this rate Alpha ain't far away.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
What the $@*! Where did THAT come from? (I know, it's been there the whole time, I just never expected it to amount to anything). It almost appears as if the whole area - Tammy and the area that is emerging off the Yucatan - is spinning around the ULL that is southeast of me. Maybe that's not such a bad thing for me. The ULL is likely to push Tammy into Georgia/South Carolina, and the would-be Vince into the Keys and then out into the Atlantic... isn't it? Or will the ULL move out of the way and allow "Vince" (if it develops into that) to move northward toward the Panhandle?
Maybe I'll just dig a hole. Looking at the "Visible" imagery on SSD for the GOM... the thing on the Yucatan definately has a spin to it. When it emerges into the Yucatan Channel (presumably later today)... will we have Vince already? The doesn't even mention this, so I assume they don't EXPECT it to amount to anything... but they didn't want to send a plane into what is now Tammy last night, either, so forgive me if I have less faith in the right now than some people...
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Wed Oct 05 2005 12:07 PM)
|
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
|
|
I was going to say that although Tammy will give some one some trouble, the convection coming off the Yucatan is bothersome considering the models and their predictions earlier in the week. There is some untapped water off the Western coast of Florida that has not been turned up or aired out yet. If that little puff ball gets spinning, the west coast of Florida could see more trouble than it has since Charlie and Jean. And, the name? ..........!!!!!!? *Flintstones*
--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
I was going to say that although Tammy will give some one some trouble, the convection coming off the Yucatan is bothersome considering the models and their predictions earlier in the week. There is some untapped water off the Western coast of Florida that has not been turned up or aired out yet. If that little puff ball gets spinning, the west coast of Florida could see more trouble than it has since Charlie and Jean. And, the name? ..........!!!!!!? *Flintstones*
Uh...the name would be Vince. Let's not jump names or they really WILL run out soon.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
orlandocanewatcher
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 16
Loc: E Central Florida
|
|
WOW!! Looks like a busy and wet couple of days for Florida lie ahead. Kinda of had a hunch about Tammy, but the Stan leftovers really look scary, especially looking at the WV loop and where it looks like it is headed.
|
Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 125
|
|
Quote:
WOW!! Looks like a busy and wet couple of days for Florida lie ahead. Kinda of had a hunch about Tammy, but the Stan leftovers really look scary, especially looking at the WV loop and where it looks like it is headed.
Yeah, the WV looks like it would suck that thing up along the western end of the peninsula, perhaps going over Key West first..... not a good scenario, and a very uncommon one - a storm coming out of the southwest?! Not the usual path!
|
bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
|
|
Not liking the looks of Yucatan storm from where I sit here in Port Charlotte.. To my amateur eye looks like a strengthening tropical system headed in our general direction.
|
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 337
Loc:
|
|
Boy, Tammy is getting no respect from us at all !!!
It's not unusual for late season storms to form in the SW Gulf and move NE.
We can survive the rain. Let's just keep the wind out of here.
|
bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
|
|
Fron wunderground blogs:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
"Some moisture from Stan has also broken off and emerged into the Yucatan Channel, but wind shear in this region is too high to allow a tropical storm to form."
http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html
"REMNANTS OF STNB APPEWAR TO HAVE FORMED CYCLIONE ALONG MEXICAN WEST COAST
BUT MAJOR ENERGY FOUND OVER YUCATANT THIS AM
THIS HAS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPRT YET -- BUT /GFS REFORM A T.C. TO
THE WEST IN 48 HOURS AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO FOR WEEKEND."
|
oklahoma
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 1
|
|
When was the last time North FL or GA was hit by a Hurricane or TS?
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
very sissy t.s. edouard hit near daytona in 2002. kyle (also very weak) brushed the coast later in the year, but no actual landfall. t.s. chris made landfall near savannah in 1988. t.s. isabel made landfall near jacksonville in 1985. the last hurricane to make landfall was david in 1979, at savannah. there have been tropical storm conditions brought to the area by systems crossing from the gulf almost as often as atlantic hits.. storms like tammy are not common. there isn't time for it to strengthen much, but it may slow as it gets closer to ga.
HF 1408z05october
|
Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
|
|
Looks like that huge chunk of energy left over from Stan is moving NE off the Yucatan towards South Florida. NWS has a flood watch for our area for heavy rains moving in tomorrow & friday. Hopefully the shear will keep this in check from developing too fast as it moves closer to Fla.
TG
--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
|
Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
|
|
Around 50W 24N.... I think that's the remains of TD19... Still firing up convection, sheared horribly but it looks like the shear is weakening and ... well... you never know it seems. Anyone elses take on that system?
And I see the Yucatan storm, looks like it's underneath a narrow ridge of high pressure, if it presists...
Be kinda sickening to run out of storm names in the first half of october.
-Mark
--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
|
LisaA
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 9
Loc: Melbourne FL
|
|
Are there any model plots yet for Stan remnants in the Yucatan? It could be nearing FL W Coast by tomorrow?
--------------------
Moved to FL 7/04, unpacked and honkered down. Worth it to be in paradise!
|
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
|
|
NHC said last night that it would take very little for a tropical depression or storm to form, which turned out to be the case. There isn't much that a recon plane could have added about the system that wouldn't already be apparent in the radar and surface obs, since the system was so close to the coast. Given the already strong wind field to the north of where the center formed, it was a tropical storm waiting to happen and it happened as soon as there was evidence of a closed circulation. One thing a plane might tell us is the max winds in the NE quadrant. So far, there has been no evidence of tropical storm force winds that I am aware of, and the radar velocities are only maxing out at 40 knots, if that.
|
Clark
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 1710
Loc:
|
|
Nah, that thing near 24N/50W is an upper-level low, and a quite vigorous one at that. What's left of TD 19 is at about 23N/44W and is being rather ill-defined right now.
Tammy's pretty much behaving as expected (see blog on the main page), albeit moving a little faster. Bumps up landfall by 6-12hr but doesn't change anything else to any large degree.
That area just off of the Yucatan will likely get drawn toward the north and northeast around the periphery of the upper-low over the Gulf and with some ties to Tammy. Development will be hindered by interaction with Cuba and Florida...may serve to trigger something in the Gulf Stream down the line, though.
|
dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
|
|
I have to say that I really don't like the look of that mass moving up the side of the Yucatan.
It gives me a really bad feeling.
With Tammy moving NW I could see the Yucatan mass moving north into the GOM, intensifying and skirting the western coast of Florida, which would be on it's clean side.
Disclaimer: I'm just a novice so I hope I'm wrong.
--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
|
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
|
|
There does seem to be some sort of circulation over the Yucutan, to the west of the very deep convection which has emerged over water. Exactly what this is and to what extent it is directly related to Stan, I'm not sure, but it's there and could develop into something if the circulation remains intact until it emerges over water. Conditions aren't too favorable for intensification, considering that there is a deepening upper low sitting just to its north.
Considering that there is a very large disturbed area of weather, with some tropical and non-tropical development (depending on where you look), the predictability of this whole mess is going to be pretty low.
Edit: The system over the Yucutan is now classified as 93L
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Wed Oct 05 2005 03:05 PM)
|
craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
|
|
No plots yet, it is not an invest. Model runs pick something up.Just run the loops and watch the isobars:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
