Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Pressure now down to 963mb which would normally support Cat III, but flight level winds still not quite there - it will make it there on Wednesday. Its still a bit early to nail down the landfall - it all depends on where the turn to the north takes place. If I had to pick an area right now (and this will probably surprise a few folks), I'd say somewhere between Franklin, LA, and Pass Christian, MS, around 18Z on the 3rd. Models would suggest something further west - but I have yet to see a model hit a five day forecast - I guess that there's always a first time. I'd also expect a strong Cat II or a weak Cat III at landfall. Everyone along the north Gulf coast needs to remain vigilant - Lili is developing into a major hurricane.
From where I sit in Melbourne, Kyle don't make me smile  , but at least he'll hold off for awhile - winds now back up to 45kts.
Cheers,
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Looks like landfall will be near Franklin, LA, as a Cat III. Baton Rouge is in the line of fire and should get wind gusts well over 100mph. Lili's eye should be near Franklin around 13Z. Storm surge vicinity Morgan City could get as high as 18 feet. Route 90 from New Iberia to Houma is likely to suffer considerable washout/debris damage. Anyone still within that coastal core area really needs to evacuate now - although Lili may weaken to a Category III at landfall, she will have generated a significant storm surge as a result of her rapid intensification on Wednesday. The core area will experience a rapid rise in water level just prior to and coincident with landfall. Be smart and stay safe!
ED
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Steveunplugged
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You nailed it it pretty good. I was a tad west (raning New Iberia to Franklin) of your forecast, but we can all agree that Vermillion, Iberia, St. Mary, Terrebonne and Lafouche (plus Grand Isle in Jefferson) took the majority of the heat. Some of the guys on saintsreport.com from down that way had been talking about their experiences. Most people fared pretty well, but all were affected.
It's definitely been the North Central Gulf Coast's year for storms. We might eek out another TS or possibly a Gulf winter low (winter as in season, not precipitation) if El Nino gets cranking in a few months. But I think the remaining threat for this season (US anyway), is Puerto Rico, Florida and from the MS/AL line on eastward through the NE Gulf. There's still a shot for some action on the mid-Atlantic coast as well. If there's anything I learned from 2002, is that all other things balancing out to neutral, watch the waters off the NE US coast for weaker development close-in. I'll credit "Uncle Joe" with schooling me that. Those anomalies have played a major part this September.
Steve
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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First off, glad that you are okay! I was okay on the track forecast, but lousy on the intensity (guess I wasn't alone). Lili will probably be recorded as coming ashore as a minimal Cat II, but thats probably generous. The highest gust that I saw was 94mph at New Iberia, although you may have seen something locally that was higher. That would translate to an average Cat I at landfall with a small area of sustained winds around 85, perhaps 90mph, near the core. Still a worrysome event if you live along the coast. It occured to me that if Meteorology is about 150 years old as a science (see my earlier thread today) then I've been doing this for one-third of that timeframe - which points out that intensity forecasting still needs a lot of work.
Kyle is still hanging around and frustrating the . An area near 28N 55W has a chance at becoming subtropical in a couple of days. An area in the southern Caribbean has minimal potential for slow development. An active wave is approaching the islands, but it is disorganized. I also believe that their is a chance for a very uncommon winter event - just a hunch. This has certainly turned into quite a season - more than I would have guessed a couple of months ago.
Cheers,
ED
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