HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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there is something that fairly resembles a on kyle now, so i'm guessing that it will deepen some overnight and tomorrow. it's turning offshore a ways, not going to be passing directly over the coastline until some time tomorrow in south carolina. the pressure seems to have fallen a bit (buoy obs of 1010mb a bit west of the center). i suspect that as the gradient tightens north of the system, gale force winds develop north of the storm, a la bastardi, yada yada, ad infinitum. in florida there's nothing to fear, nor in georgia.. but up in the carolinas and virginia, probably some damp, breezy weather tomorrow into saturday. the equivalent of a fall noreaster, possibly.
as for the next storm being hedged on.. there is pretty good model consensus about trouble starting down in the sw caribbean and migrating nw late in the weekend into next week. how/whether to phase whatever may form up into our weather picture isnt really very clear on model runs, but with this kind of consensus i would expect to see marco going down there next week.
HF 0211z11october
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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I can't believe the Weather Channel really did it. They sent a crew to Jacksonville Beach to report on Thunder Storm Kyle's impact on my area!
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!!!!
Winds out of the north at 90, oh, one moment please, make that 9 MPH!!! That's right folks, 9 mph! And every once in a while, rain. REAL LIGHT RAIN. Tides are running about INCHES above normal. Wait, I thought I saw a rip current!
Geeeeeezzzzzz. 
We really are getting a thunderstorm at the moment, first sign of anything today. Kyle was a non-event, to put it nicely.He'll be out of sight by lunch tomorrow, not like we saw much of him anyway.
Geeeeeeezzzzzz!
Joe in JAX 
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kjax.shtml
Based on the radar link and tonight's IRs, if I was in South Carolina I know I'd be into it (as would most of you). Hell, an outer band is worth a six-pack.
I agree with HF on the SW Carribean. It's too early to call, but there's going to be a pretty big front sweep into the Gulf this weekend. New Orleans is forecasted to start at 72 Sunady and drop from there. It's our first fall shot. That's supposed to hold until maybe Thursday. 4 days of mild-cool air (plus all the recent rainfall - another 6-12" in SW LA since Sunday), the NGC water temps will come down some. There is a link at ATCW.org to a site that gives maximum hurricane potential as of a given time over the Atlantic basin based on these temps, shear and other indicators. That's something to watch this week. I've only run across that link 1 time, and it was 2 days old, but when I run across it again, I'll post it. It might be important next week. Gut feeling tells me the threat is 150 miles or more east of here, but could be a Cat-2 or 3 event for someone in the US next weekend.
TPS
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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http://grads.iges.org/pix/atlpot.gif
If anyone has a better one, post it.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Kyle becomes a tropical storm again!!!!
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Don't look now, but Kyle is a TS again with winds of 45 knots. A little bit later this morning he should make landfall in SC. Look for some gusty winds and heavy rains in that area. This is by no means a life-threatening or damaging storm, but residents in the areas I mentioned above may want to keep an eye on the weather just in case.
There is a tropical wave SW of the Cape Verde Islands that has some strong convection and organization this morning. I expect this to be short lived as very intense westerlys are just ahead of the system. This one's gonna get chewed to shreads.
The SW Caribbean is where Floridians need to keep an eye out later this weekend and all of next week. All of the models (AVN, , UKMET) bring a broad area NW and N out of the SW Caribbean by the mid-part of next week. My thoughts on this: A TD develops by Monday morning while moving slowly towards the NW. The TD organizes into TS Marco later on Monday while still moving NW. Marco has little change in intensity on the early part of Tuesday but begins to rapidly organize into a hurricane by Tuesday night and Wednesday. Begins to move north over western Cuba by Thursday and turns NNE making landfall somewhere between Tampa and Naples by Friday. Of course, something has to develop first, but once a low pressure forms down there it will only be a matter of time.
I'll be leaving later today with my family for our trip. The weather up in the mountains looks to be clear but pretty chilly. 60's for highs and 40's for lows...that's pretty cold for central Floridians. Interesting to know we could be facing a tropical cyclone, maybe a strong one, just around the time we get home. If we get word some big storm is coming out of the Caribbean we'll be back in a hurry....but we are just going to enjoy vacation and see what happens.
Kevin
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Steveunplugged
Unregistered
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http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrir.html
Isn't that nice? Kyle went and made a beautiful heart on the Carolina Coast. Look at the 14:45 UTC frame (go to the archives). It's the tropics' way of saying thanx to each and ever one of us again this year. I love you too Kyle.
Steve-unplugged
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tom5r
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
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We've all been saying that Kyle has heart and soul. Seems kinda proper he would make that heart at landfall. Somewhat poetic.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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havent seen any t.s. force wind reports, from anywhere. a few gusts have made it.. but wherever the gale force winds are, they are localized and probably transient in offshore squalls. 2pm position has it right off cape romain. i guess kyle will pass cape fear and the outerbanks at cartaret and dare counties later today and tonight, and be out to sea tomorrow. might actually become in the meanwhile.. structure is elongating ahead of a weak frontal zone, with all of the activity pretty much on the eastern side.
as for the caribbean issue this week.. kevin has already outlined a hurricane hit scenario for the west coast of florida.. egad. i'm going to be a little more conservative, say that modeling and pattern suggest something might materialize down there between sunday and tuesday, and that it will probably come up and cross cuba. that said, several of the globals are placing a leader low (maybe one of those fake binary systems they like to generate) off the southeast coast later this week and steering the caribbean system eastward into the bahamas. if that low is realistic, it would make the threat extreme se florida and more likely the bahamas. in other words, no irene.. more like michelle. thats my take.. though i havent even confidence that it will form, much less be in a position to threaten. synoptic setup isnt there yet, a fierce shear jet has to lift and some ridging needs to advance into the sw carib region.
HF 1807z11october
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Steve
What a lovely thought! And here I was thinking such negative things like what an irritant Kyle is and is and is and is...
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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A note from our friends at the :
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE AREA ARE LOW...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
Anybody want to bet that this is a) what the models have been toying with; and b) the beginings of Marco.....
Joe in JAX
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Convection increasing south of Jamaica and east of Nicaragua. Next storm is coming soon. Where will it go?
--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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You got it Joe, check out the model runs,they have been picking up on this for a few days now. I believe that MARCO is going to come and visit, even if it's just for a quick drive by!
Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Mary
Unregistered
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Toni Do you think that we will see anything of Marco on the west coast of Florida. I am interested in this because I am in Lakeland .
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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Think we need to wait until tomorrow's models runs to get a better handle on what could be marco. First we need to see development. Models differ with AVN/MRF bringing a weaker system over Cuba/Florida on it's way north to move quickly NNE, to the UKMET that waits for development of this energy in the Carolinas, then bombs it out to a huge system heading into N. England. has it developing west of Jamaica then heads it NE into the Bahamas missing Florida, and (from Kyle run) have it developing north of Honduras then running dangerously close to South Florida then toward the Bahamas.(120 hr frame missing). Can't really make a compromise solution out of this. It's either gonna get pulled north into the Carolinas and develop or it isn't. And if it doesn't, does it follow the track of the model that pulls it north. I doubt it. We need to examine it when it develops and where. No magic here. Let the models show where When it develops. Now that I've said a lot of nothing. Let's wait and see? BTW, how about that system off Africa?? Strange ain't it?? Cheers!!
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STUART DAVE
Unregistered
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When unable to make a decision it is best to check the Bastardi column. Alas there is no mention of an M storm today which means I must conclude it will not happen. Again the alignment of protective air currents around SFLA will keep me safe here in SFLA. Besides one of the WPB weatherman last night pointed to North of Hispanoila as where he was watching and hurricane update at 552am made no mention of anything possible.Sad to say I'll probably closely be watching the satellites today and checking this site constantly even though the odds are so remote....
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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last kyle advisory.. somewhere in the 80s for total advisories, i believe. kyle made #3 all time on the longevity list, quite impressive.
the appearance of the w caribbean this morning is the first confirmation of all of those global's premise that trouble would begin down there. since it is developing about five days behind the current westpac typhoon in the corresponding location.. look for a similar path.. which is nne. some modeling has the system clipping se florida, but the consensus is across central cuba and the bahamas. the big model difference right now revolves around a possible noreaster ahead/with the storm. on avn they are one in the same, but on , ukmet, .. a separate frontal wave get supercharged as it phases in and tears up the east coast next week. so if we have a tropical system coming out of the caribbean, it will probably be interacting with a closer, more powerful low that runs the east coast during the middle of next week.
other basin activity.. is about to flip back to happy, so something else could try to happen in the near future. the current pattern that will periodically favor western caribbean development should hold for the near future, so this theme could be repeating next week or the week after.
HF 1520z12october
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
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Not to begin the hype too early but the llittle spot in the western Caribbean looks at least as good by the infrared as Kyle ever did most of the time and he did some trouble in the Carolinas. Also wanted to see what would show up when I registered again.
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Mary to answer your question if I think that future Marco could affect the W coast of Fl, I would have to say that there is certainly a possibility, as Steve mentioned earlier, the models should have a better handle on it tomorrow.
Toni
CHECK THIS OUT.....
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER MIAMI FL
330 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2002
CARIBBEAN...12Z /AVN RUN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE SW PART OF THE AREA AND MOVES IT N ABOUT 20 KT
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ON MON. MOVEMENT IS A LITTLE SLOWER
MOVING THE SYSTEM OFF THE HONDURAS COAST.
ATLC...LIGHT WIND ACROSS THE AREA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...
GFS/AVN MOVES THE SYSTEM ACROSS W CENTRAL CUBA ON TUE AND THEN
ACCELERATES IT ON A NEARLY DUE N TRACK WED AND THU. IS
MUCH SLOWER ON THE SYSTEMS MOVEMENT. RUN INDICATES A
946 MB HURRICANE WITH 105 KT WINDS IN THE AREA BETWEEN THE N
BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA IN 72 HOURS.
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Per the axis of evil model runs....
Mr. Evil the
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/02101223
the other Evils
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/02101300
In a day or so Marco might form just down south in the NW Caribbean and he's getting ready to make a run at extreme south florida... Big cold front expected to be in the NGC area early on Sunday morning... come on down Mr. cold front, cause we been waiting for ya for the past 5 months.... YAHOO...... system in the NW Caribbean might just be the swan song for this years rather interesting season... boy, I had my full for sure.......
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