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Bay of Campeche area now being tracked as Invest 92L. 40% chance for development, likely to be a rain event, with most of it on the east.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 227 (Zeta) , Major: 290 (Laura) Florida - Any: 976 (Michael) Major: 976 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: nhc test model runs on 95L
      #6118 - Sat Oct 12 2002 10:25 PM

Speed, speed, speed. It seems that's where the Axis of Evil models are showing their disagreements. The ones that are turning Marco (may I call it that?) into the Bahama's are getting him up there in a hurry. Slower models put him a little bit more to the west. Of course, at the moment, we're talking about a system that hasn't formed yet.

From what my eyes tell me, we are looking at several problems. One, in most cases, the 'system' will actually take a short tour of Central America while it is in the process of trying to get going. Where (or what) it comes out as is the first problem. When, of course, is the second.

If we have a system at that point, where does it cross Cuba (Fidal piss somebody off this year?) and when? For the third time this year, the Isle of Youth may hold the answer. West of the Isle, bad news for Florida; east and I don't think he touches the US.

Last, and the one I can't begin to even try to answer, is there seems to be some kind of fall noreaster off of the upper East coast mid week. Axis of Evil models go to war on this issue. Are the noreaster and Marco one and the same, or are they separate? If the two lows are not connected, good news for Florida, Marco goes fishing, because the noreaster breaks down any ridge that trys to redevelop over the south (opens the door, so to speak). If they are really the same system then Marco is a whole lot closer to the East coast then some in the Axis of Evil would lead us to believe. At any rate, I don't think anywhere west of Florida will see a cloud from him. That's my take on 'Marco' tonight, but like I said a way's up in this post, we don't even have a system yet.

Joe in Jax
Go Jags!!!!!!
So sorry Free Shoes Univ.(FSU)!!


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Ed D at HRMC
Unregistered




From the Cyber Cafe at Holmes Regional
      #6119 - Sat Oct 12 2002 10:27 PM

Sorry that I haven't been active during the past week - ended up in the hospital with diverticularis - an infection of the lower intestine. Finally recovering and just found the Internet room at the hospital. Expect to be back home on Monday or Tuesday - I was beginning to suffer from PC withdrawal I don't have any of my links so I'm going to see what I can find from doing a little net surfing and check out the southern Caribbean system that you are chatting about. I'll break away from my I/V and check in again sometime tomorrow evening. Best to all.
Cheers,
ED


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
ack
      #6120 - Sat Oct 12 2002 11:26 PM

pure hell in the sports world.. i dont remember ever going so psycho over a game. we could have beaten the #1 team... wide left #*@L#*! (much nicer than anything ive had to say today). now ed is in the hospital... more bad. only bright spot is anaheim just about closing up the AL. be nice for the team that kicked the yankees out to take it all.
ah well, i dont believe in all the models juicing up a major hurricane, see maybe a fast moving irene-type system that narrowly misses se florida. probably a noreaster coming up ahead of it. maybe something else in the basin this week, MJO is going to switch back to happy mode.
HF 0326z13october


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Get well soon ED...
      #6121 - Sun Oct 13 2002 02:34 AM

And be sure to get the soft wipes, not the cardboard ones usually available in your hospital room.

UK MET looks pretty nasty for Long Island up through the Maritimes. I think we get at least a Cat-1 out of all this, and the good folks in SFL who have only gotten a few bands come through this year, might get a little tropical scare. We had our fill up here, so enjoy whatever you get.

Down the road, there are different solutions including 2 tropical systems, tropical system and nor'easter, big phase bomb. It's way too early to tell. Can't say I'm too happy about the cold front coming down though. We're not supposed to get out of the low 70's next week, and most nights will be in the 50's and 60's. I'll take that kind of weather in January, February and March, but OCTOBER? Brrrrrrrr. No thanks. Give me a 95 degree day anytime!

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
NOTHING YET
      #6122 - Sun Oct 13 2002 07:49 AM

Early Sunday and nothing yet. We will see. Find it funny that Gator fans here are knocking the Noles, who only lost to the number 1 team by 1 point on the last play at Miami. Gators lost for the 3rd time by a swamped 36-7 and have at least 2 more losses coming (FSU and UGA). They were also swamped by the Canes at home. Say goodbye to the top 25 and welcome to the last place team in the state.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
WEST CARIBBEAN
      #6123 - Sun Oct 13 2002 09:18 AM

Most of the model runs this AM is starting to shift a little to the Left,the NOGAPS has a piece of energy that is around N.Fl and then is quickly picked up the the ENE. The UKMET looks like a broad area of low pressure at 42hrs, and does not develop until its on it's way up the E Coast. One thing we know for sure is that what ever happens it will eventually make it up the East coast and that is one thing that all the models can agree on.
Check this discussion out, any one have differing opinions.
Toni

By the way the GFDL (for all you fans) has a 111kt hurricane sitting at the tip of Cuba in 120 hr. with a broad area of low pressure in the N. GOM. WOW what a change from its previous run. Wonder what it has in store for it's next run.
ALL GUESSES ARE BEING ACCEPTED.


MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2002

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE AREA THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. IN THE SHORT TERM A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF
TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER THE W GULF AREA EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT OVER THE EXTREME SW GULF TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY MON FROM NE FLORIDA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
OVER THE SW GULF BUT BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER THE NW GULF LATE
MON.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. GFS/AVN CONTINUES TO BE VERY CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. GFS TRACKS THE LOW
ACROSS E NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY MON. THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...SEE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER...THE
GFS 200 MB WINDS INDICATE SOME SWLY SHEAR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA AND CURRENTLY THE CONVECTION IS WELL TO THE NE OF THE BROAD
LOW. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM MAY NOT DEEPEN VERY RAPIDLY.
PERHAPS...THE UKMET MAY BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE AS THE 12Z RUN
INDICATED A MUCH WEAKER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A
STRONGER BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT NEAR NE FLORIDA IN THE EXTENDED
OUTLOOK. IN ANY CASE...THE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
MON AND JUST SOUTH OF W CUBA MON NIGHT. CURRENT OFFSHORE
FORECAST INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE.

ATLC...NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS HERE AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
BUT...WINDS WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...
IT SEEMS THAT THERE IS A GREAT DEAL MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTEND OUTLOOK TODAY WHICH HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
DAYS. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SE US/GULF OF MEXICO MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS
TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAROCLINIC LOW NEAR NE
FLORIDA. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP TO PULL THE CARIBBEAN LOW
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND MOST LIKELY THE BAHAMAS
ON TUE.
THE NOGAPS MODELS SEEMS TO BE THE ODD MAN OUT...AS IT KEEPS THE
CARIBBEAN LOW SOUTH OF CUBA.

BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET QUICKLY MERGE THE CARIBBEAN LOW WITH THE
BAROCLINIC LOW AND COLD FRONT EARLY WED. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA. STRONG
SLY WINDS...POSSIBLY TO NEAR GALE FORCE...ARE EXPECTED E OF THE
FRONT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE
ATLC AND GULF MEXICO. THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N71W
TO CENTRAL CUBA THU. WINDS WILL DECREASE W OF THE FRONT...WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE
ATLC WATERS.

WARNINGS...
NONE.

FORECASTER BROWN






--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: From the Cyber Cafe at Holmes Regional
      #6124 - Sun Oct 13 2002 09:21 AM

Hey Ed, hope you get to feeling better.... and get the heck out of that hospital....

System in Caribbean not all that impressive on IR this morning but still hanging around.. looks to be drifting NNW or N.... Hunter going to check it out this am... what ever is down there should certainly not affect the NGC... maybe extreme S FL.. maybe just Cuba and the Bahamas... maybe nada

HF ... FSU should have beaten the Canes... WIDE LEFT.... Kicking game sucked for both teams in the final few minutes...

Saints will continue their first place dominance in the NFC South with a win over the Skins....

Golden Eagles lost to South Florida.... geesh, is that a junior college or something? maybe they are the third best team in Florida... USM struggling... big time...


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: ack
      #6125 - Sun Oct 13 2002 09:23 AM

HankFrank...are you changing your predictions for the system in the Caribbean? Yesterday at 2pm..you posted that

"in other words, no irene.. more like michelle. thats my take.."

But, your 11pm post reverses that statement to

"see maybe a fast moving irene-type system that narrowly misses se florida"

I always watch your posts and read them carefully, for they are always full of insight and reasonable analysis. I was just wondering what you see changing down in the SW Caribbean to make you do a 180?

Lou


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Kyle's remnants...
      #6126 - Sun Oct 13 2002 09:54 AM

Several of the global models really develop the remains of the ST remains of Kyle midweek. Looks like Europe may get to see some decent leftover action.

Canadian has joined the UKMET with a big storm from Delmarva on up. UKMET 00Z run affects areas much further west than previous runs and indicates a landfall with a track north, then NW toward the Eastern Great Lakes(?).

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: From the Cyber Cafe at Holmes Regional
      #6127 - Sun Oct 13 2002 09:56 AM

Feel better soon ED. SEE you found a computer room in the hospital, even they know that a computer will make you feel better.
Toni

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: From the Cyber Cafe at Holmes Regional
      #6128 - Sun Oct 13 2002 10:44 AM

Should have you can write books on.. what happened is what happened. The football gods smiled down on Miami and was wide............ every which way you can lose Miami won, done.

Made me smile.

Like to see what people think will really happen with this system? Is it developing or not?

Supposed to go out of town Tuesday morning and be in NYC on Wedneday, have read so much on this that not sure where I will have the worst weather...here or there, go figure.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: ack
      #6129 - Sun Oct 13 2002 11:36 AM

i see what youre talking about.. i was thinking about two different aspects of the storm, intensity and track. to clarify, i want an irene intensity (cat 1 as it crosses land (cuba, bahamas) and a michelle track (threatens but bends away, no landfall). yeah, it looks goofy.. but cut me some slack. i'm not a die hard football guy, but even i went ballistic and was left mentally drained after yesterday. we squandered a chance to beat miami.. seized defeat from the jaws of victory.
if the teleconnections to the westpac work out, this storm misses the southeast u.s. coast. one different solution last night did catch my eye, the NOGAPS, which doesnt phase the storm, takes all the energy up off the southeast and has enough ridging below the negatively tilted trough in a few days to stall the system and drift it west. i dont favor this, but will be looking for more support as it differs greatly with other model solutions.
by the way, the broad low pressure area down there is fairly well defined. i would expect it to be a depression within 12 hours. 90% that this thing is a go.
HF 1534z13october


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anon, keith
Unregistered




slower development
      #6130 - Sun Oct 13 2002 11:54 AM

The GFDL seems to have pinpointed intensity, but not track, I believe. That model seems to make the most sense as far as track though. It seems to be much slower with development and movement than the others which would make it a completely different scenario regarding environmental conditions. Just a thought

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Darcy
Unregistered




Re: slower development
      #6131 - Sun Oct 13 2002 12:39 PM

My first post this year!
Bye bye Kyle!

Are you guys serious abot this new one? Tke a step back for a second...you're really predicitng this thing as if it will go anywhere near where you think it will! Remember, it's still a wave.



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anon keith
Unregistered




Re: slower development
      #6132 - Sun Oct 13 2002 01:08 PM

I should have been more specific in my last post. I believe this YEAR the GFDL has done well with intensity, not necessarily at landfall but at peak performance. You can't assume anything with this WAVE, however the GFDL takes it inland and then back out while the others keep it over water bringing in poleward faster. That's why I believe the GFDL scenario seems reasonable as far as timing. That would also change the environmental conditions being south of Cuba in 120 hours opposed to almost every other model which had it there 3 days earlier.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Never count on a Field Goal
      #6133 - Sun Oct 13 2002 02:46 PM

Always take them when you can get them, an easy 3 but never hang your whole game on a FG.

You put it away when you can, because often even sure things aren't on the football field.

As for the tropics..

My problem is that although pressures are low that front is barreling down and it seems that the environment down there isn't very conducive to a system getting itself together the strongest convection keeps blowing off.

Think a bending track like Michelle is more likely...or just offshore.

Personally I'd like to see a Caribbean Hurricane the following week or two ... after the big front or two pass and some moisture stays down there and there is more time for something to develop and move north.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Ed D at HRMC
Unregistered




Invest 95L Possibilities
      #6134 - Sun Oct 13 2002 09:24 PM

Well I think that the system will develop - eventually. Convection continues to refire and cyclonic envelope looks promising, but system has only dropped a couple of mb in the past 8 hours. I'm not convinced that development will be as rapid as projected by most of the models. There is a possible outlier to its future track, i.e., if the evolution of the low off the northeast Florida - Georgia coasts occurs within the next 24 hours, the developing tropical cyclone may get left behind as the nor'easter moves rapidly up the coast and establishes a blocking pattern over the northeast Gulf. Should this happen, the potentially furure Marco would get trapped south of Cuba rather than pulled northeastward with the Atlantic coastal gale. For this reason, its still too early to come up with a 'comfortable' forecast track for this developing tropical system.

On the medical front, looks like I'll be released from the hospital tomorrow afternoon - recovery was much improved today. If the thoughts noted above don't pan out, I'll just blame it on a fuzzy mind due to medical complications
Cheers,
ED


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Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
Re: Never count on a Field Goal
      #6135 - Sun Oct 13 2002 09:40 PM

Really surprised no posts tonite. Looking at IR floater it would appear that a depression has probably formed near 17N ,81w. I would say looks like movement around 10 and just west of due north. I sure hope this post to board and someone will give me some feedback on these thoughts. Dolphins going to have to really work tonite to beat those Broncos.
Hurric


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
South Florida mentioned to stay alert
      #6136 - Sun Oct 13 2002 10:18 PM

Statement as of 10:30 PM EDT on October 13, 2002
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A weak surface low located to the east of the Nicaragua/Honduras border continues to show signs of organization. This system has the potential to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 to 36 hours. An Air Force reserve reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the area again tomorrow afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall associated with this system will affect Jamaica...the Cayman Islands as well as portions of Cuba during the next day or so as the low moves to the north. All interests in the above mentioned countries including the Bahamas and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system.



--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Hurric- a reply
      #6137 - Sun Oct 13 2002 10:41 PM

Here's what the TPC had to say at 9:00pm:

1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N82W MOVING NW 10 KTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS AREA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED NE OF THE CENTER FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 77W-82W.

I would note that they say 14N 82W. If that's the case, then at least some of the models run this afternoon started out wrong. NW at 10 would also throw them off. I'm still thinking this thing isn't going to come flying out of there as fast as some thought. Also, the low that was (or is) to become a noreaster on the east coast isn't just going "to form" there, a low has broken off a wave in the bahama's and should get tangled with the cold front coming through the area. I mention that only to point out that some of the longer range models seem to have the right idea, but got some minor details wrong. At this point, most would point toward Cuba taking a shot of some kind and then out through the bahama's. But first we have to see a system get named, and the Key West forecast would lead you to believe we're not going to see one:

...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE SWRN
CARIBBEAN...WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THE DISTURBANCE OUGHT TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER SFC LOW TUESDAY EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...THEN ACCELERATE NE.

??????? Who knows why something moving NW at 10 would do what KW says? Maybe they have a pretty good handle on it. Your guess is as good as any of ours.

Joe in Jax
Won't even talk about the Jags. Bad weekend for North FLA football.............


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