MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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5PM Update
Hurricane Watches are up from Longboat key southward on the west coast of Florida and from Titusville southward along the east coast of Florida. This means hurricane conditions may be felt in those areas within 36-48 hours. Warnings may be issued for portions of the watch area tomorrow as approaches. is nearly offshore of the Yucatan now.
Wilma is forecast to be a category 2 or 3 hurricane when it makes landfall on the western coast of Florida, and will be moving very rapidly, so that there won't be much time for it to weaken all that much before reaching the east coast. The timing is still during the day on Monday. The forecast track was shifted a bit to the north. But remains mostly the same as before. Affects will be felt thoughout the watch area.
Tropical Storm Watches are up for points north of the hurricane watch area.
Again,most of the Florida Peninsula will feel some effects from
Original Update
Tropical Storm Alpha has formed. Breaking the record number of tropcial storms in a season set this year and in 1933, and for the first time exhausting the list of names for the season. It is expected to make landfall over Hispaniola. The 5PM advisory will reflect this.
is still drifting slowly over the Yucatan, continuing to weaken. It still has not cleared the peninsula. It has a small chance to gain strength again when it gets into the Gulf, so the Category 1-3 range for landfall later remains the most likely. has been undergoing a large eyewall replacement cycle, so the new eye is actually partially over water. The remains of the old eye still fill the center.
No change on timing, and track.
More to come later in the day.
Tropical Storm Alpha Discussion
Report Conditions from in your area here
Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.
(full size)
Image courtesy Weather.com Click here for full size image
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from Cozumel/Cancun (Includes Photos)
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Cancun Radar Animation (Flhurricane mirror) (Note: Radar hasn't sent a new image since 7:30 it will still continue to check, but the radar may be down due to )
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL
Lee County, FL
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)
Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.
Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is heading toward South Florida see some of his live streaming video and audio here
Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real )
Barometer Bob
WebCams
Royal Resorts Webcams in Cancun
The Royal Sands Animated WebCam (Flhurricane Mirrored)
Reply and let us know of other links.
Wilma
* NEW * Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of - Static Image
Wilma Microwave Imagery Animation
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots
cimss page
Tropical Storm Alpha
* NEW * Animated Model Graphic of TD#25
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of TD#25 - Static Image
cmss page
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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NRL is reporting that Tropical Storm Alpha has formed:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...es&DISPLAY=
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Miami, Florida
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Looking at the latest visibles, appears to be nearing the NE tip of the Yucatan, and is moving slightly faster now, though still very slow to the NNE. Rain bands are beginning to strengthen & build to the E and NE again, and I would not be surprised to see her strenghten to a low end Cat 3 again during the next 24 hours before she begins a weakening trend towards the Florida SW coast.
Think the forecast is right on track with a Naples-Ft Myers area hit and being at a high end Cat 1 or low end CAT 2 at landfall IMHO.
Hope everyone in S. Fla is taking this seriously as I think there will be a large area of tropical force winds with Hurricane gusts in addition to the direct path area with sustained CAT 1 or 2 winds.
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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tpratch
Moderator
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Loc: Maryland
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Cross-posting the graphic:
Will likely do a heading update when the next hours' radar image goes live.
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HURRICANE EYE
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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I beleive that her outer eyewall has partially been over water this entire time, this is why her structure has been intact, and that the is halfway done by the colapsing of the inner eye wall seen on the microwave loop someone on here posted yesterday, sorry dont know how to post a url.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Looking at some of the 18Z models on Accuweather[pay area], Most of the tropical suite shifted north for that run. MLB was hinting at at an error being to the north. Will be intersting to see what comes out of at 5:00. All of the forecast paths had been running right through the middle of these models. Suspect there will be a slight forecast shift north. Not large. Probably parrellel to current track; but shift to north side of the Big O instead of south.
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Jim
Edited by Rasvar (Sat Oct 22 2005 08:02 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Not sure if this got posted in the old thread, but here is the latest recon (about 50 minutes old). According to it, the has finished and it is just a matter of clearing out the remnants of the old eyewall. 75NM eye...and just 2 days ago we had a 4NM eye...wow.
You can also see the 75NM eyewall has a large portion of it over water: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...CT=1degreeticks
832
URNT12 KNHC 221942Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/1920Z
B. 21 DEG 20 MIN N
87 DEG 05 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2725 MA
D. 85
E. 135 DEG 35 NM
F. 221 DEG 81 KT
G. 136 DEG 51 NM
H. 957 MB
I. 11 C/ 3057 M
J. 14 C/ 3060 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C75
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1824A OB 08
MAX FL WIND 90 KT NE QUAD 1739Z
REMNENTS OF INNER EYEWALL ON RADAR.
Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Oct 22 2005 08:11 PM)
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?wa...Weather+Outlook
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
Edited by Tazmanian93 (Sat Oct 22 2005 08:44 PM)
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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I actually made a comment to Colleen last night or maybe this am, who can remember, that it appeared that ever ever so SLIGHTLY they were shifting slightly N. Of course there could be more
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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KikiFla
Registered User
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Loc: Miami, FL
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Now that we have Tropical Storm Alpha formed..... and with Hurricane in the near vicinty around the same time, does anyone have any idea how these 2 storms will interact with each other once they get in the Atlantic near the Bahamas????
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Not sure if this got posted in the old thread, but here is the latest recon (about 50 minutes old). According to it, the has finished and it is just a matter of clearing out the remnants of the old eyewall. 75NM eye...and just 2 days ago we had a 4NM eye...wow.
957 MB pressure after having been on land for several hours... impressive. Definately not as weak as it could have gotten.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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laureg
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL
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I have what I think is a great question...what if...next year we run through all of the names again (heaven forbid); do we start at Alpha again? What if we want to refer to the Alpha of 2005, 2006, 2007 and so on?
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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
Weather Watcher
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Loc: The Burg < FL
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watching right now .. and they havent called TD25 alpha yet strange i figured they would be first on it b/c they are doing things live today .. im in clearwater .. and weather its a lil south or a lil north from the projected path ... we are gunna have nasty weather monday with the cold front slamming into this strom .. @ noon on news channel 8 thier system was showing heavy winds and rain .. all along the i-4 corider 
Edited by D3m3NT3DVoRT3X (Sat Oct 22 2005 08:20 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Now that we have Tropical Storm Alpha formed..... and with Hurricane in the near vicinty around the same time, does anyone have any idea how these 2 storms will interact with each other once they get in the Atlantic near the Bahamas????
GFDL 12Z model run on 25L shows eventually absorbing Alpha:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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[Sorry, I posted this after the thread switched, so here it is again just in case:]
Does anyone have a good site that provides real time information on where the front really is? The only way I've been able to really track it is by the weather station buoy data, but there has got to be an easier way to see this data. I just don't think that the NWS graphic front line on the GOES loops is completely up to date. From looking once again at the buoy data versus their graphic, it appears that the front is farther north than their graphic shows.
I've looked at the WV loop and it gives me a feel for its location; but unlike the METS who can interpret that kind of stuff, I'm an architect so I need fancy graphics to look at! 
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komi
Weather Watcher
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Is on the way to FLA now .. almoust offshore:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Just to give us an idea of how big this storm is look at Mondays forecast for Northern Lake County. Not quite what people are expecting up here
Monday...Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms. Strong winds. Rain May be heavy at Times. Highs in the lower 70s. Northeast winds 45 to 50 mph with gusts to around 75 mph becoming north 35 to 45 mph with gusts to around 65 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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I do not know of any better?
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/chart.do?loop=true&requestId=1129914741763.716.3
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Parrish florida
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please post a link rather than pasting 3 pages of content please. It's good info, but inordinately long. Thanks -Tom
Edited by tpratch (Sat Oct 22 2005 08:34 PM)
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TinaB
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 20
Loc: Tampa, FL
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Boy, Accuweather sure has changed it's forecast path!! This morning they were almost in agreeance with but now they have moved the center of their forecast track WAY north from earlier. FWIW, I never give much attention the and Accuweather...prefer to stick with , TYVM 
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