mojorox
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 46
Loc: Orlando
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Well they just canceled the inland hurricane warning for Orange county(NWS melbourne). Now it is just an inland TS warning...
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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: San Angelo, TX
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Quote:
Ok, will never ask this question again but what can we honestly expect to see in St Pete/Tampa area?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw
That is THE best source of info for our area. unlike most tv mets who usually put their opinions into their "official" forcast, this is original cold, hard facts. It will tell you exactly wat to expect in your city. Just click in the approximate area of where you live in your county and it will give you the info for your city. Hope that helps.
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Matt
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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This statement was issued on the School Board Website
Lake County Schools is closely monitoring Hurricane 's projected course. They will be meeting this morning to decide whether to close schools on Monday, Oct. 24.
We will post the decision on this website sometime after noon today.
Check their site later today for updates there
www.lake.k12.fl.us
Anyone heard anything from Lake-Sumter Community College, I see Valencia is closed.
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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TO try and steer away from the Accuweather flame war potential, I'll disclaim the folowing.
JB called almost every storm in the GOM this year a potential NO event. To give him credit for (when the impact wasn't NO) is like giving a stopped clock credit for being right twice a day.
I'm not saying the man is not intelligent. I will say, however, that the 's guidance has a far better track record than that from the folks at Accuweather. This is my personal opinion and no way reflects the views of the . In short, go with the and National Weather Service. If they issue warnings, you would do well to heed those warnings.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Quote:
Tornadoes for sure, check out the differences in the dew points from north to south:
48 Tallahassee
57 Gainesville
75 Orlando
78 West Palm Beach
81 Miami Beach
The frontogenic signature is actually only average (not that you were asking) but you most certainly do have a disproportionately intense llv thermodynamic gradient evolving in lieu of the fropa (mid/upper Fl Penn)
This is intriguing....The mid-levels seem to want to support a frontal position somewhat N of Gainesville, but that's not unusual because all cfronts will tend to wedge somewhat underneath their own mid-lvl support. To mention, some of those cooler dp poolings are probably because SE Georgia has some topography lending to "cool air damming" - a phenomenon more associated with the upper East Coast but taking place in SE Georgia and the Carolina coastal plains nonetheless. This air was given special impetus in moving S because of departing gale center situated over ACK, MA this morning; now racing into the Gulf of Maine. May seem like a stretch to say that but the former process was actually set into motion earlier yesterday evening (got keep the temporal relationship in mind here..)
...Anyway, thus there is a frontal slope in the area with a potent circulation (.a.ka ) riding up the boundary from SW to NE. This has super-intense short duration rainfall event for the NW side written all over it... Typically, the NW quadrant of a hurricane is the rain side anyway, and the SE wind, for systems moving NE... (W/E for systems moving N..etc). It looks as though you have some compounding factors that would suggest an extreme flood potential for areas along and actually just N of the llv frontal position, as is moving (most likely) right across the Lake Ok. area and exiting S of Cape C. Those areas will have elevated convective elements of tropical origin, nested amid a phenomenal isentropic lift scenario... We could be talking blinding rain - even more intense than typical for these scenarios. Not sure what the l moisture is like in those areas NW of 's track but it may not matter if much fall rates. The saving grace is that she's accelerating in keeping with strong U/A impulse tumbling down into the Ohio Valley... This closed area has furthering complications up the East Coast.
...This scenario has been covered by HankFrank several times of the last few days but I can't help my self... Sufficed to say, Eastern New England is not out of the woods... In fact, closer inspection of all the models, which clearly have converged on a powerful hybrid/Nor'easter for our area up here (potentially damaging one), shows that she's technically still warm core while she's passing near 70W/42N (Cape Cod or just off-shore there). Meanwhile, there is U/A warm frontogenisis signature materializing S of our area, classic transitioning signal. The thing is, as is typical for systems of this nature, she will be moving along so quickly by the time she's nearing she's likely to exceed her transition rates so it does seem she'll have vestiges of a warm inner core... This is actually a blessing for those who would rather not experience a dramatic short-lead warning wind event, because that means that her pgf has not been expanded; her baroclinic acquistion hasn't completed. I don't see how she can complete the transition fast enough to keep up with her very quick translational speed given model solutions such as the . It shows a cyclogensis vis-a vis the U/A low, with a weakening sling-shotting around the eastern flanks at ludicrous speed. In other words, she's likely a still a distinct entity fighting off the morphology, but finally conceding well NE.
...However, the other extreme, the 00Z , it offers an intriguing solution, which I cannot ignore. Typically, the has a longitudinal bias, particularly N of 30 degree that is true... It is thus intriguing to me that it indeed has the less depthy H500mb pattern Monday/Tuesday concerning the Ohio Valley trough...yet, it is more successful in apparently morphing with Mid-Atlantic in situ cyclogenisis... Almost wonder if that's some kind of exotic confidence. Should the more amplified H500 type solutions pan out, it is possible that would start racing N and then actually take on more NOGAPian SFC soltuions; dramatic hook, morph in (alla solution) into a real stemwinder...
Observing the wv imagery provided at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html ....shows a very powerful secondary potential vorticity field, when extrapolating the intense U/A impulse that is rotating through the SW Lakes...toward the SE.. It is not entirely certain how effectual this arrangement will be at 54 hours in actually inducing strong Mid Atlantic cyclogenisis... but this could be scary. Since the lions share the baroclinicity was not displaced seaward by the current attenuating gale center, there is a very large cyclogenisis potential lingering up and down the entire area of New England to N Florida really... The trigger vorticity advection does not have to be that impressive with such dynamic, and the U/A impulse will have decent mid lvl jet nosing into the lower Del Marva, as steering feild ENE of the 70W lon line will probably situate more S to N than currently depicted (going on the assumption that the models are typically underdone with heights in the western Atlantic). Yet, here we have a strong gyre with very cold mid-llv heights tumbling SE, with situated alarmingly close by in the Gulf...?
Bottom line...these elements are quite forboding. In a vague way, kind of reminds me of the 1991 Gracy - Perfect Storm scenario, although there isn't enough block NE (I don't think?) to cause a lingering hyper system.
It's gonna be a fun ride... I'm almost thinking about hitting the Cape with a some kind of video camera and being really irresponsible and stupid... Anyway, the 12Z guidance is crankin' out as I type... Be interesting to see if the deeper solution along the New England coast theory pans out... Right now, as is, and based on 00Z and 06Z guidance average across all clusters, it looks like a moderate impact Nor'easter with room for deep considerations... Just interested in if the 12Z guidance avails of those potentials and bores a hole in the atmosphere near my lat/lon...
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Here is a specific link to your area forecast
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.ph...5&map.y=147
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Joshua
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 43
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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Quote:
Ditto!! Please enlighten us
Most likely the type of conditions you would see during a strong tropical storm. Depending on where you are, you can see something around 45-55 mph with custs higher. Nothing like hurricane sustained winds, but it would be best to clean up outside 
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Not sure who is in charge of the Accuweather forecast; but that does not even agree with JB's. I did get a chuckle at the 68G110 for my location. They have gone to whacked out on this one.
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Jim
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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Posts: 125
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Looking at the WV imagery you see the trough that will be steering quite clearly, along with the high building in behind it.
The cold front that was over Tampa has reversed and is now a warm front buckling northward. This front's motion, and the speed with which the axis tilts more N-S will determine the eventual path up the coast.
It certainly appears that the impact in Florida of the actual center will be more to the south than I had expected - however, this does not mean that you're "clear" north of there by any means. The weather is likely to be downright NASTY anywhere near and south of the frontal boundary, and with that boundary now moving northward, the possibility exists for the turn more poleward will occur sooner rather than later.
In any event it looks like my view is a bust, although the fat lady has not yet sung on this. The slower moves, given the retrogression of that front, the more northward she will turn.
I would not breathe a "sigh of relief" until this storm is past. The acceleration that was prognosticated was predicated on a diving southward frontal boundary draped mostly E-W. We now have, at least over Florida, a regressing northward-moving one, which may dissolve, and the gradient that's behind it has a much more poleward tilt to it. This may slow forward motion some, which is both good and bad - good, in that it will prevent as much amplification from forward motion to windspeed, and bad, in that it may draw the storm a bit further north.
Marco Island looks to be "ground zero" from the 's point of view. This is horiffically bad for the Keys, given the windfield of this storm, in that it will essentially "rake" them on the dirty side, especially if the track deviates a bit further south. If further strengthening does occur, there will liklely be widespread trouble there.
Looks like I'm going to eat my crow on a somewhat-more-northward impact point, but that's ok. I just hope that those further north don't see the interaction that will kick off too many tornadoes. In some ways the retrogression of that front may be a blessing in this regard, in that it may take some of the energy out of what would otherwise be a bad tornado event. Bottom line is that the N-S tilt I expected to develop didn't on time - which augers for more eastward than poleward motion.
But, it does look like its going to happen - just another day late (the story of our lives on this storm - everything feature-wise always seems to show up later than expected!)
This leaves me a bit more concerned about the possibility of being left behind by this first front and ending up getting picked up by the second low and its trough now over Ohio. That could be very bad for the NE US States - last night it looked to me like this was unlikely, but this morning, with the front inverting and the possibility of that boundary dissolving, to be replaced by the one behind it, I'm getting more concerned about that again.....
Finally, I've heard little about damage assessment in Cozumel and Cancun thus far - hope they're ok down there......
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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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Thanks for the info Jamiewx. I was on the school board site earlier this morning and there was no information there.
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Looks like so far the is right on.No surprises yet.She is looking better and better on satilite,the winds should catch up with the pressure this afternoon.People in Tampa should be happy now,not upset.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I am beginning to think this could be a far more damaging event in the NE then in Florida when everything is said and done. To me, the biggest question is how much flooding rain is this going to drop on already saturated areas. I hope folks in New England are aware of what the could get. Not a certainty, but there won't be a lot of time to respond and prepare if they wait for it to become certain.
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Jim
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DJINFLA
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Indian River County info:
(this is all taken directly from an email from Nathan McCollum, the county EOC guy)
Protective Actions for Indian River County are as follows:
Evacuations-All mobile homes and manufactured homes are under a mandatory evacuation as of 3:00pm today.
Shelters-The public shelters will open at 5:00pm, today. The shelters are Fellsmere Elementary School, Sebastian River Middle School, Freshman Learning Center, and the Oslo Middle School. The shelters will remain open to anyone until the storm is over.
Special Needs-The Special Needs Shelter which is Liberty Magnet School will be opening at 3:00pm today. Anyone who has registered for the special needs shelter can go after anytime after 3:00pm.
Voluntary Evacuations-Residents who are susceptible to severe beach erosion along the coast should consider evacuating if their is the possibility of undermining. Also, people who live along the Indian River Lagoon that are susceptible to flooding should consider leaving the area as the rainfall totals are unknown. Anyone living in low lying areas can use shelters or simply stay in an area that does not flood.
Bridges-All barrier island bridges will close at 6:00am, Monday.
All government buildings, including schools, are closed on Monday.
A general press conference will be held in the County Commission Chambers at 1:00pm today.
The next advisory will be this afternoon.
On the lighter side of prep. . .the county has temporarily removed some traffic lights (where there are 2+ ights for the same road). Guess their thinking is from the "Lessons Learned Department" after and Jeanne. . .it takes too long and costs too much to replace them. Even more amusing, I've noticed that most porta-potties are laying down. Perhaps the construction companies? The porta-potty fairy? I don't know. I woke this morning and noticed that the 10 or so of them on my street were on their sides. Yes, there's that many on my street, we're not that backwards here in Sebastian! Just a lot of home growth going on lately.
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sylk
Registered User
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Posts: 1
Loc: Winter Park Fla
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New poster here .. this is for Orange county
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1150 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
...HURRICANE CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA...
...NEW INFORMATION...
THE INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR ORANGE COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED BY
AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
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pincty
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 31
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I agree with you tpratch.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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wow...if you read my last post...i agree with you here... seems like we come to the same conlusion perhaps with difference means.
Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 23 2005 04:11 PM)
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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GFS is in. Looks like a little north of Lake Okeechobee.. is interesting too, seems to have moved considerably north and is now slightly north of track.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 73
Loc: UK
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If that question was directed at me then I'm sorry, I cannot help you. It was purely based upon my own personal observations of the current conditions, not on predictive computer models nor anyone else's opinions. I am not a met , neither am I a professional weather forecaster, so it is the responsibility of the individuals themselves to watch, listen to and heed expert bodies such as the . Weather prediction is not a precise science and never will be, so it is to be expected that variation will always be present within any particular set of forecasts. Choose the one that you have the most faith in and stick to it.
And good luck to you all, I'll be thinking of you.
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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KC
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
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For those of you in SW Florida, ABC-7 is broadcasting until 1pm if you are looking for local reports. It's still sunny and humid.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Morning from a sleepyhead. Didn't check anything yet but the wv images, will be brunching while I catch up. Should have counted on Weird to do the unexpected. Looks like she mixed in the dry air, left the outer eyewall as a wind maximum, and is definitely trying to rebuild the inner eyewall (looks like you were right bloodstar), but without too much success. Dry air still holding her in check. Maybe she's going for the 'dreaded pinhole eye' again.
Notice how the strong convection in the NE band tends to keep reforming over the warmer waters of the loop current.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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