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Area for development tagged in the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf), 20% development in next 5 days (may increase later into next week)
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 226 (Zeta) , Major: 289 (Laura) Florida - Any: 975 (Michael) Major: 975 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Thanks [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #63359 - Sat Oct 29 2005 11:25 PM

Beta certainly looks better than Cat 2 (so named in the 11pm) on IR right now. The eye seemed smaller (until the 0245Z, that is) and strong convection finally symmetric around the core.

I guess we won't know exactly how strong she is at landfall because outside of the two afternoon recons there were no others scheduled. The area of hurricane-force winds was extremely small (30nm), and remains that way in the advisory, but appears on sat that they might have spread further out.

Starting to get that sick train-wreck-in-slow-motion feeling. How many times have we gone through this, in the 2005 hurricane season.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Beta: Category 2 [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63360 - Sat Oct 29 2005 11:36 PM

I don't suppose there is time left, or the chance they'll want to put another recon in the air now?

update -- It's clearly a major hurricane on sat imagery now.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Sun Oct 30 2005 12:19 AM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Beta: Category 2 [Re: Margie]
      #63363 - Sun Oct 30 2005 12:57 AM

might be closing on 3. t-ratings are 5.0 and that's what it's set at.. but those are a little old. earlier i was thinking it would be making landfall about now, but it's not accelerating any more like i thought it would, as well as the fact it's moving wsw at about 240-245 and not due west. looks like the landfall may end up being closer to puerto limon than puerto cabezas. very compact storm... chances are not high the worst of the wind will cross an urban center.
gotta take issue with this quote from the 11pm disco:
THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD MOTION IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND THIS TURN
WAS BRILLIANTLY FORECAST BY THE GFDL AND BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS.
i don't know what planet avila has been on the last couple of days, but GFDL and the whole mess of globals have had this thing going due west from the get go.. and there was about 48 hrs of northward drift they simply didn't capture. not sure how that constitutes 'brilliant'. if the early GFDL was to be believed the storm would already be in the pacific ocean.
speaking of which, if the GFDL is really brilliant then beta will end up making it across to the pacific... as run after run it goes across. a lot of the other globals have it moving ashore further north and drifting through honduras, along a fat cross section of central america. the current sw motion is more in line with the GFS/gfdl crowd, and those models tend to push the storm further wsw and across (though admittedly the GFS has it too weak and kills it after a few hours onshore). i'll stay with the inland camp, but am keeping the possibility in the back of my mind. not a very big storm, and there's nothing to overtly suggest it will survive, even if it makes cat 3 in the next few hours.
the whole 91L mess to the rear has sort of spread out.. a lot of moisture went streaking off on the outflow jet from beta, but some of the residual vorticity is floating along near jamaica. beta will be losing influence over the area, and there is a strong convergence zone in the nw caribbean. final word isn't written on this thing yet, though it has very little chance of doing much.
new 92L looking no worse for wear. there's more convection, but the low cloud motions don't suggest any tightening of the circulation. there could be more going on in the flaring northern part of this feature, as cloud debris is obscuring the low level field. this system is very slowly getting more organized, though globals still don't see much anything to it. it's going to be moving over the warmest waters in the basin within the next two days, so if it's going to develop it'll likely happen before too much longer. there's another energetic low amplitude wave back near 30w, which the globals have roughly the same opinion of. westerlies are finally really chopping up waves above 10n out near the cv region, so the ability of defined waves to feed under the rather resilient subtropical ridge shielding the caribbean is on the wane. pattern shift is underway, and it will probably result in more of the basin becoming closed to development (outside of those nontropical-origin cutoffs that happen from time to time regardless of how the basin looks).
as things stand there's a modest potential for a follow-on to beta next week, with an extremely slim chance of a second. there's also a low but present chance that beta gets into the pacific as a viable entity and garbles the upper pattern evolution that most models are showing.
later everybody.
HF 0457z30october


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Beta: Category 2 [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63364 - Sun Oct 30 2005 01:09 AM

I was beginning to feel very alone watching what appeared to me to be a major hurricane about to make landfall.

Yeah I caught that in the discussion too and wondered what little story was behind that. I wonder if it had anything to do with Stewart's earlier writeup on the models.

I realize the eye has not cleared out completely but look at the shape. I've never seen a hurricane this season slough off all of the irregular edges of convection to achive that symmetric puffed donut look, without being a major hurricane and usually not until they get to Cat 4 intensity (had to edit here...this reads ambiguously but no I was not saying Beta is now a Cat 4, no way, only that I've only seen that shape before on Cat 4s).

It just started moving faster. The curved coastline it is approaching is allowing the inner core to remain intact closer to landfall.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Sun Oct 30 2005 01:31 AM)


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Annie Oakley
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 1
Loc: Austin Tx
Re: Beta: Category 2 [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63365 - Sun Oct 30 2005 01:29 AM

Uhhhh...this is to HankFrank-this is my first post here but I have to say (and I hope I don't get in trouble) that whatever you said in your post is so awesome to me-in fact-all of the posts here just blow me away! I am a weather novice and not young. I am from Texas and the hurricanes really get me going but the way ya'll talk just leaves me breathless. I love the intensity of it all. I know I sound scary like a Halloween freak but I really mean it. If I had it to do all over again I would have studied weather and even then I probably couldn't even touch this! Thanks to all of you dedicated weather watchers. I also am in a position to help hurricane victims and believe me, if only more people would pay attention to what the hell is coming their way. Anyway, I am now a devotee of this site and of weather of all kinds but hurricanes are my favorite for some reason. Maybe cause I used to read a lot of Jack London books-I love the sea. This waas a ramble but justto let you know that at any time you can effect a change in a person's life or intersts. Thanks! Oh, HankFrank the way you said all that-I wish I had a recording of it cause it was so poetic and beautiful to me.

that's weird. try and stay on topic on this forum. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Oct 30 2005 01:40 AM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Beta: Category 2 [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63366 - Sun Oct 30 2005 01:44 AM

The last two frames as everything but the inner core ripped away, the eye cleared out considerably. Just offshore now is a very small strong core.

It appears Beta will fall apart very rapidly and intensity will drop off very quickly once onshore, then the rain event will continue.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Chemstud2004
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2
Loc: Durham, NC
Final Intensity analysis [Re: Margie]
      #63367 - Sun Oct 30 2005 01:47 AM

I've been a visitor on this site for 3 years now and this is by far the best site for discussion and learning about these marvels of nature.

That being said I thought I'd finally put in my 2 cents about Beta. (My first post so please don't be too harsh )

We will likely never know its intensity as it pushes onshore...we should have an idea of its minimum intensity but clearly do not have the technology even at that time to accurately predict the actual intensity without reconnaisance data. Even so I'd like your thoughts on the following without making this sound like a Wishcast:

What we know....

1) pressure near 979 mb at 4pm Saturday from recon reading and flight level winds not quite reading the estimated 90MPH advisory value.

2) Small eye feature developing according to recon at that time improving in structure over previous 12-24 hours.

What we can guess at...

1) A pinhole-type eye structure has finally formed and consolidated itself on IR and Dvorak imagery over the past 6 hours surrounded by -80 to -85C cloud tops. The few storms that form such a feature average between a 4-8 mb/hr drop in pressure until steady-state dynamics take over (Gilbert, Wilma). Beta probably has 6 more hours of significant/explosive deepening in store, at least until frictional effects take over, but with a very small radius of maximum wind, the core should not weaken until essentially onshore or unless it stalls.

2) Unlike the abovementioned monster storms that bottom out....Beta will unfortunately make landfall near or at its most intense wind/pressure.....I would make a comaprison to Iris, which also had a 5-6 mile eye prior to landfall in SW Belize with rapid intensification to Cat 4 status and a tiny inner core structure.

3) Winds may not catch up to pressure intially and up until now because of the rapid organization/deepening but I'm afraid it will by landfall...

4) The winds could be stronger than expected near the eye for its pressure due to the tighter than average pressure gradient for its pressure (again due to the tiny wind core)....this means that Cat 4 winds could be supported by pressures as "high" as 940-950 (Charlie and Iris were about 945mb at 145mph). Also, Wilma deepened by more than 80 mb in just 12 hours with a similar eye structure, albeit better outflow channels so who knows how strong Beta is or may get.

Best guess:

Without an anemometer and a barometer at the Nicaraguan coastline, if the strengthening trend continues, a rough estimate of intensity may be:

Current pressure/wind: 940-955mb (my guess is near 950 mb) with max wind to 110 knots (winds still catching up)

Landfall pressure/wind: 915-945mb (my guess is near 935 mb) with max wind to 130 knots (should be able to catch up with pressure drop by then)

Love to hear your thoughts....I'm just an analytical chemist using the lifehistory of storms over the past 23 years to generate an intensity forecast....it is truly a rare event in this day and age to NOT know such a realtime scenario with a landfalling major (assumed) hurricane in the Atlantic basin since no new recon missions will likely be scheduled for this storm ( no need for the 2pm recon on sunday since landfall will have occurred by then).

In any event my prayers will go out to the families affected by this tragedy. While land area affected won't obviously be as large as Mitch, the localized devastation could be easily as bad.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Final Intensity analysis [Re: Chemstud2004]
      #63368 - Sun Oct 30 2005 01:54 AM

They will post it at the 1am.

They conservatively left it just short of Cat 3...I'm a little surprised looking at the eye. They surely would have seen the 0515Z before posting the advis. But even with landfall in just a couple hours, and only the inner core intact, NHC still indicated it was possible to get to Cat 3 before landfall, which also surprises me a little, as I think time has just about run out.

So HF your estimate was right on with the NHC's.

0545Z eye continued to clear out, the SW movement will leave it over water just a tad longer...I think it likely the 5am will mention Cat 3 before landfall.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Sun Oct 30 2005 01:18 AM)


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Chemstud2004
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2
Loc: Durham, NC
Re: intensity forecast... [Re: MikeC]
      #63369 - Sun Oct 30 2005 01:59 AM

As I was writing my last post, the satellite imagery showed cloud tops warming and CDO size decreasing.....hopefully the insane intensification seen in some hurricanes this year will not happen now....and hopefully my short term forecast was wrong.....

that's why im a chemist and not a meteorologist....i just play one to get the Holiday Inn discount rates.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Beta 0815Z [Re: Chemstud2004]
      #63370 - Sun Oct 30 2005 03:55 AM

Nice Satellite shot showing the Eye.


Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 30 2005 03:58 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Beta-Major Hurricane [Re: danielw]
      #63371 - Sun Oct 30 2005 04:43 AM

Beta has become the 8th Major Hurricane of the 2005 Atlantic Season.
The 4AM EST Sunday Advisory has increased Beta's wind speed to 115mph making Beta now a Category 3 Hurricane.
Beta is expected to make landfall during the day on Sunday (today). Beta has a very small Eye, with Trop. Storm force winds extending 60 mile out and Hurricane Force winds extending 15miles out.

The last few discussions have hinted heavily at the possibility of Beta's Vortice moving into the E. Pacific. While remnants of tropical moisture spread northward, and at this time, are forecast to be picked up by an extratropical Low, forecast to develop in the GOM.

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 30 2005 05:28 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
San Andreas Island [Re: danielw]
      #63372 - Sun Oct 30 2005 05:51 AM

The last weather report from San Andreas Island was at 0700Z.
Temp 79F ; Dew Pt 73F ; RH 84%
Bar 1008.2mb-steady
Wind SSW at 8mph; Visibility >6miles (10km)
Ceiling 9000ft; Scattered Clouds at 2000ft

At this time that is the only reporting station, close to Beta, that I can find.


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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Re: San Andreas Island [Re: danielw]
      #63373 - Sun Oct 30 2005 06:26 AM

daniel there are now 7 majors in the 2005 season not 8=Dennis,Emily,Katrina,Maria,Rita,Wilma and now Beta.That was an error in the discussion where they mentioned 8.

Thanks, I didn't check double check their discussion~danielw

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 30 2005 06:41 AM)


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Ned
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
Loc: W.Coast Fl.
Re: Beta: Category 2 *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Annie Oakley]
      #63374 - Sun Oct 30 2005 06:53 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(A PM to site officials would have been the better choice for this type of information)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Oct 30 2005 08:53 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST [Re: Ned]
      #63375 - Sun Oct 30 2005 07:35 AM

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM... SOUTH OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS
ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
THIS POSITION IS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR LA BARRA.


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jeangfl
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Thanks [Re: SEFL]
      #63376 - Sun Oct 30 2005 07:55 AM

Thanks to everyone for all of the useful information and support last week during Wilma. Our electricity and cable (internet) finally came on - family (Ft. Myers, Bonita Springs, Jensen Beach) is all safe. Thanks again everyone! You kept me from having a complete meltdown

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weatherwatcher999
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 20
Loc: Southwestern Ontario, Canada.
Re: Thanks [Re: jeangfl]
      #63378 - Sun Oct 30 2005 08:34 AM

000
WTNT61 KNHC 301307
TCUAT1
HURRICANE BETA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EST SUN OCT 30 2005
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HURRICANE BETA MADE LANDFALL NEAR LA
BARRA NICARAGUA AT ABOUT 7 AM EST THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 105
MPH...OR CATEGORY TWO ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
Re: Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST [Re: danielw]
      #63379 - Sun Oct 30 2005 08:39 AM

Unusual for this year to see such a large error in the NHC landfall forecast. Beta is going it way south of yesterday's forecast. Looks like on this track the remnants will backdoor Managua instead of the more sparsely populated areas to the north. Not sure how much punch it will still be packing at that point though. Interesting on the IR how the tops warmed just before landfall.

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Thanks [Re: weatherwatcher999]
      #63380 - Sun Oct 30 2005 08:44 AM

I hope this is not too off topic but is important to me. There is an invest up on NRL. On the tracking chart it has a red box shaped like a window. It appears hand drawn. Is this something that is important or an artifact that was an oops? It is on the 92L invest.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Thanks [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #63382 - Sun Oct 30 2005 08:55 AM

It indicates the area within which tropical cyclone formation could take place.
ED


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