Ed Dunham
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Monica crossed the York Peninsula of northern Queensland (near Cooktown) a couple of days ago at 95 knots. Today she is in the north central Gulf of Carpentaria moving slowly to the west and she has become quite a storm. Sustained winds are now at 125 knots and central pressure is down to 916mb. Monica is expected to slowly weaken as she moves just north of west and skirts the north coast of Australia over the next few days.
ED
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ltpat228
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Quote:
Monica winds are now at 125 knots and central pressure is down to 916mb.
ED
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/sp200623.html
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Bloodstar
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NRL is reporting it at 145Kts and pressure at 892MB. at 0830Zulu time. Whatever islands are out there, are about to get whacked hardcore at the top of Australia. and the eye, if anything has continued to get more distinct and cleared out. T numbers are up to 7.5 (up from 7.0 6 hours ago, and 6.5 12 hours ago) 150 to 155KTs may not be out of the question by the next update 1200 Zulu or so)
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
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Bloodstar
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Yeah, I'm replying to myself...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt26.html
Objective T number is at 7.8 (which would imply 877mb Pressure and 164Kt winds).
They have an adjusted T# at 7.6 but according to their graph... wow. 188mph sustained?
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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At 23/12Z, Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica was located at 11.7S 136.5E and she was moving slowly to the west northwest. now has central pressure at 892mb and pegs the sustained wind at 145 knots (about 165mph). Monica is expected to move west over the next couple of days remaining just offshore northern Australia. Quite a storm!
ED
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Storm Cooper
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TC Monica
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Margie
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I've been watching since Friday morning. Yeah she really bombed as soon as the convection was able to wrap all the way around. Last night around 7ish, 8ish I was wondering why still at 125kts, both and the sat images. I guess doesn't put out bulletins as often as ? Last night she was clearly headed annular, as can be seen from this morning's (for us) IR -- the reduction in convection outside of the ring, reduction of the diurnal max of the cirrus outflow bands, the buzzsaw look.
Wondering if the outflow is what is making the difference (such a big factor with Kat and ). Convection concentrated so close to the center that the portion of the that is over land does not seem to be much of a factor --maybe just the tiniest bit, looking at the 1042Z microwave...the area of strong convection completely round now, not oval like 8 hours earlier, but just a hint maybe of the two main spiral bands starting to come back on the edges of the convection (the IR however looks close to a perfect plate shape) Has she maxed out in intensity until passing the peninsula and getting more completely back over the water? Isn't it close to the diurnal max there now, around 3 or 4 am.
Here's a great link to Gove radar...the presentation of the eye on radar has not changed since last evening, but there does appear to be more intense convection this morning than 12 hours ago, as would be expected.
http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR093.loop.shtml
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Sun Apr 23 2006 03:39 PM)
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HanKFranK
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hasn't been an unusually active season down in the australia area, but monica is very intense and ought to feed the debate over whether tropical cyclones are getting stronger worldwide. i don't buy it personally, but that is one hell of a cyclone. good news is, it has to travel near shore before going in, region is not exactly dotted with settlements, and eyewall processes ought to take this storm down a few notches before it finally comes in. the amsu imagery suggests that an outer eyewall is forming, and later today or tonight the inner one will probably snap and allow the storm's windfield to flatten and loosen up some. the bad news is, when this thing goes through the darwin area it may have -like effects as opposed to camille-like effects, as the old storm of record there is tracy from 1974, which was small and extremely intense (much like camille). even if the storm winds weaken a great deal, there ought to be significant storm surge damage near the coast. i would not want to be below 20' above sea level if i had to deal with monica.
that thing is hauntingly pretty. very symmetric, annualar profile.... reminiscent of isabel.
HF 1723z23april
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Margie
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Objective T number is at 7.8 (which would imply 877mb Pressure and 164Kt winds).
They have an adjusted T# at 7.6 but according to their graph... wow. 188mph sustained?
The adjusted T# is now up to 8.0 (1633Z), and the est RMW has dropped a tad. History:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/23P-list.txt
Now the T-number is up to 8.0 at 1833Z, the RMW down another bit:
8.0 / 868.6mb/170.0kt
The enhanced IR doesn't look nearly as picture-perfect as a couple hours ago.
Attached the 1610Z microwave pass...still pret-ty darn impressive ring of convection.
That comparison to Camille-Kat vs. Tracy, very interesting!
As I emailed a friend earlier today -- both facinating and frightening.
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Margie
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Let's start a trend (reply to self...).
Um...estimate of RMW has been shrinking all day, and now it appears on the enhanced IR image that the storm is about to slough off some convection to the ESE and consolidate the convection a little more, become a little more compact. Also the brightness on the in the IR is more symmetrical than yesterday and more intense. Looks like that T number is right on (note that it maxed out the scale!), and it will be interesting to see what puts out in advisory 15 for the max sust winds (anyone want to hazard a guess?...165?).
Also not certain on this but it apears that it did move out over the water a little rather than curve in towards land. Also continuing during the past hours to move into an area of lower shear. The 1km zoomed (GEO) sure looks just as good today as it did yesterday. Waiting on the next highres MODIS image.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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danielw
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Here's an excerpt of the latest BOM Advice on Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 61
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 am CST Monday 24 April 2006
A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between CAPE WESSEL and DALY RIVER MOUTH, including DARWIN, the TIWI ISLANDS, COBOURG PENINSULA and JABIRU.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest between DALY RIVER MOUTH and PORT KEATS.
The CYCLONE WARNING between NHULUNBUY and CAPE WESSEL has been cancelled.
At 7 am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 5 was located about 80 kilometres north of ELCHO ISLAND, 180 kilometres northwest of NHULUNBUY and 520 kilometres east northeast of DARWIN, moving west at 13 kilometres per hour. The
cyclone will move further west and closer to the coast later today. The cyclone is then expected to weaken slightly as it passes over the COBOURG PENINSULA
tonight, but will still be a SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE as it moves across the northwest DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLANDS area during Tuesday.
The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 350 kilometres per hour (217 mph) is currently affecting the islands off the northeast Arnhem Land coast and is expected to cross the north coast between MANINGRIDA and
CROKER ISLAND later today, and approach DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLAND area on Tuesday afternoon.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour (99.2 mph) are currently being experienced on the remaining islands about the northeast Arnhem Land coast, and should extend further west to CAPE DON by tonight.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour (62 mph) are currently being experienced on the northeast Arnhem Land coast, and will extend westward ahead of the cyclone, reaching the northwest DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLANDS area on Tuesday morning.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDDP0002.txt
Wind speeds in bold are my rough calculations~danielw
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 7 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.3 degrees South 135.5 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 13 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 350 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 915 hectoPascals
Edited by danielw (Mon Apr 24 2006 12:27 AM)
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Margie
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Ok the SSMIS just came up on the web site (attached). The core is something else...completely symmetric (also looking similar on IR).
I just reviewed the (short) archive of CI#s on CIMSS and this is the first TC that has maxed out their scale (at 8.0)...not Isabel nor nor came close.
JTWC forecast #15 is out.
* * * * * *
Well that was the last hurrah, looking at more recent IR and microwave. Still pretty much steady state, and still impressive, but it appears it has topped out on the intensity earlier this evng as expected.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Mon Apr 24 2006 04:03 AM)
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HanKFranK
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the current forecast track for monica takes the storm in well east of darwin. there's enough land between that i'd expect darwin will only get gales and maybe hurricane force gusts. probably a category 1 type surge through a tidal cycle or two. jeff masters article brings up larry and glenda, which have both been quite intense. they've had quite a set of memorable storms this go-around. fortunately australia doesn't have a megatropolis-type city on its cyclone-vulnerable coastline... with the sydney, melbourne, brisbane type cities in the middle latitudes facing away from the warm tropical waters. there's only so much trouble they can cause.
HF 0544z24april
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Margie
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Agree -- the core is quite small. It continued to hold up really well looking at the microwave, although the intensity looks to have dropped. kept the max winds at 155kts with #16, but I thought 155kts with #15 was conservative. Looking at the CIMSS history for the T number, they estimated it was still packing sust winds of 140kts even after the eye was completely over land.
I thought it would come apart a little more prior to landfall, but even at landfall still looked pretty darn impressive on IR (attached). And it looks like that one outflow channel was still there.
It is coming ashore in what appears to be an extremely unpopulated area...according to the Encarta map, Boucaut Bay and Hawkesbury Point probably receiving the highest wind, and only one settlement there, inland, Maningrida, that appears to be a small one. It is really taking a hook south and it looks like Darwin will miss the effects almost entirely.
* * * * * * *
I fished around on the Australian BU web site and found some coastal weather station readings. The airport at Maningrida (which is a little inland at the base of a large estuary) reported a high gust of 80 kts as the core was just moving inland towards the southwest, and NW of their location, with the lowest pressure at 986.4mbar, but then stopped reporting, possibly because they lost electricity or because of surge.
After looking closely at all the sat images, it does appear that the closest approach of Monica to Maningrida was at about 6:30pm their local time (about 0930Z) when they did record the lowest pressure. If so, they never did get the highest winds from the extremely small core of the hurricane.
I did some more research and found out that Maningrida is an Aboriginal community of 2600 people (they have their own website too).
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD60700.shtml
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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HanKFranK
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next up, the developing cyclone in the bay of bengal. looks too far west to be a cross-equatorial twin of monica.
HF 1349z24april
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Tropigal30
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Hi all
Was searching for some decent imagery myself and came across this site:
http://independentwx.com/
Towards the bottom of the site are some links to great radar images.
I think it's going to blow itself out, and hopefully not get bored and head back for the coast the other side of the peninsula to Maningrida ...
But I think Darwin will be mostly unaffected. Lots of cleanup where it is headed though if it goes through the camping and caravan / resort areas ... not such strong structures.
Will update with the local report tomorrow.
Tropigal 30 from Darwin 
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HanKFranK
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Looks like the surface center kept chugging westward. Close to the Darwin area now, and it might just go back offshore. Convection pretty much went poof, though, so it has some serious rebuilding to do in any case.
That tropical storm in the Bay of Bengal will be serious trouble if it moves due north through the week. Most of the globals broaden it and spin it down, take it up towards Thailand. Just keep it away from Bangladesh... that place is like a couple hundred New Orleanses without any levees.
HF 0545z25april
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Margie
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Maningrida airport weather station back online and reporting, as of about an hour or so ago.
The low that was all that remained of the remnants of Monica has moved back over land and is not expected to regenerate.
Jeff Masters blog posed the interesting question that we are all left wondering about now. Just how strong was Monica? In retrospect, I think I got a little overexcited by those CIMSS AODT estimates maxing out.
02B (Mala) predicted by (warning #5) to curve NEward towards land and not gain much in strength.
* * * * * *
Question on windspeed conversions. Is 12% the correct conversion factor for going from 10-minute windspeeds to 1-minute windspeeds? It appeared that wind gusts are the same for both (3-second gusts).
This is the first time I have looked at conversions to km/h and also the rating of hurricanes by max gusts. It was a little strange. Those scary numbers boiled down to something more familiar: i.e, 350km/h gusts equating to 217mph gusts, equating to SSHS strong Cat 3 -- 130mph sust winds, makes the pressure of 915mbar within a reasonable range. Of course during this same time rated the storm quite differently.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Wed Apr 26 2006 08:29 PM)
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danielw
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Margie, You've been looking at the AOML site, haven't you.
...One complication with the use of the 1 min averaging time for the standard for sustained wind in the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific tropical cyclone basins (where the United States has the official World Meteorological Organization tropical cyclone advisory responsibilities) is that in most of the rest of the world, a 10 min averaging time is utilized for "sustained wind". While one can utilize a simple ratio to convert from peak 10 min wind to peak 1 min wind (roughly 12% higher for the latter), such systematic differences to make interbasin comparison of tropical cyclones around the world problematic...
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D4.html
http://www.warnercnr.colostate.edu/class...sion_charts.pdf
http://www.csgnetwork.com/windspeedconv.html
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Margie
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No actually I didn't go to the AOML website, but probably should have. I was fishing around for something to use to do the conversion, just to try to get to a SSHS category, and I did find some info on vs JMA windspeed conversions. I found the 12% to be more common but also saw 15% mentioned as well.
I had found that 2nd link you mentioned but I had noticed it only went up to 30mph and I was looking for much higher windspeeds.
I didn't have that third link, and have bookmarked it -- thanks!
It was just real interesting to see that the AU wind gust / barometric pressure relationship was pretty consistent with our idea of a high end Cat 3, but that at the same time, both and were seeing a much stronger storm both in terms of sustained windspeed and pressure.
Margie
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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