Bloodstar
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I say this because the storm has a definite eye like feature.. attachment included. in addition a Scat wind feature seems to indicate 50 - 60Kt winds on the outer portion of the storm. Latest T numbers are 4.0/4.0 which would seem to indicate that the storm is near 65Kt winds. the ADT gives T numbers at 4.7 http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt16.html
I'd say yes at this point. Just curious if what i'm seeing is what other people see.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Margie
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This morning, officially, yes.
JTWC warning #7 has sust winds 70kts and steadily brings it up to a weak Cat 4 in 48 hours. also labeled 70kts. Looks like convection is starting to wrap around the center on the microwave pass, and it appears to now be in an area of low shear, after the last couple days. Good outflow on the west -- can someone explain why the outflow is so lopsided? I am seeing a little outflow to the SE (closer in) but none to the NE. I can see something is enhancing it on the west and north, and it looks like a ridge (dry clear air), but I still don't know enough about troughs and ridges to get it.
91S not looking so shabby either.
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I don't get it...the strengthening in warning #7, which was surprising to begin with, has been replaced in #8 with a very moderate forecast increase in intensity over the next 48 hours (from the existing 80kts, to 90kts). However, this, just as Mala is starting to look like the core is coming together. Most of the sat images except IR are old, so it'll be interesting to see how things shape up over the next 12 hours.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Apr 28 2006 12:55 AM)
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Margie
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It looks like Mala is really coming together very quickly. It looks from the vis, IR, and water vapor images that she could be bombing. The latest microwave image showed a complete ring of convection around the eye but still some spiral bands. On the visual the has that flat white dappled look. The eye seems wider and more well-formed on the visual than the IR.
The CIMSS AODT estimate seems on the low side (4.8 with Vmax of 85kts).
I still don't understand the intensity forecast with #8. With the next warning will they have to go back up on the intensity forecast to close to what they had with #7?
Trying to figure out what they're seeing to limit intensity increase -- dry air from the NW?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Margie
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I wake up to a min Cat 4; Mala is at 115kts.
JTWC #9 has intensity peaking at 125kts and making landfall shortly afterwards at 120kts -- not good for the folks in its path. This looks like the upper bound for certain. The microwave isn't looking quite consistent with the impressive vis sat image.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Margie
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NRL set Mala at 125kts, I think around 1400Z.
Looks like an may be completing and the eye has not yet cleared out on IR. TMI microwave imagery from around 1400Z showed a ring of strong circulation much larger than the previous distinct eye (which has now clouded over). Very scary looking.
Guess no one else is watching Mala.
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A couple hours later, it looks like Mala definitely peaked, and is starting to be impacted by land and drier air before the can complete. Some land area is already being affected with the strong outer ring of convection before it has had time to weaken, the city of Bassein on the floodplain of the Irrawaddy River, and it appears that Sandoway may get hit pretty hard.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Apr 28 2006 06:39 PM)
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Margie
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That came so close to completing (see attached microwave that just came out recently). But it had definitely peaked and it seemed like shear was having an effect. I thought that 10 to 20 kts of shear wouldn't be enough to impact it, but it seems like it is.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Bloodstar
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well, if there is good news, the storm didn't have a chance to really get its legs underneath it like it could have. It's still going to hit hard though, and in fact appears to be making landfall even as I type this. So it's hitting with estimated 115Kt winds and pressure at 927mb according to the estimates. U Wisc had about 117Kt winds and T numbers at 6.1 at landfall. though it was weakening for the 8 hours before landfall, so I suspect the winds were lower.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Margie
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Loc: Twin Cities
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JTWC warning #11 which coincided with landfall estimated winds at 100kts, a Cat 3. There is one story out on the AP with prelim damage. A lot of roofs off, but it is hard to translate that into windspeeds unless you know the building code. It did hit a relatively unpopulated area.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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danielw
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Margie, the attachment you posted has a really good resolution. The ticks on the map overlay are in 1degree squares (smaller squares). That would place the diameter of the Eye at nearly 45miles across.
Large storm surge!
The only thing that might have been in their favor is the lack of rain indicated, on the satellite image, East of the storm...prior to landfall.
That ...might, help the trees stay upright. But the windspeeds that I saw prior to landfall were at least, N ATL Cat3 range.
Seems like CNN reported a significant storm surge.
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