HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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well, we could have a meager tropical storm that fizzles and we could have a real menace in the works. tropical storm chris is on a track that should take it near florida in about 5 days. that's assuming that something doesn't kill it, or that some unforseen break in the ridge traps it out in the atlantic.
my personal take is that it will work it's way into one of those upper col regions with outlfow channels from upper lows nearby, as the official forecast has noted, and that it will ride mostly west under the ridge in an intensification regime. modest shear and subsidence are being introduced to it in progressively weaker quantities, and it has survived them for days as a developing system and become organized in spite of them. to me, all this adds up to a hurricane hit on the atlantic coast of florida.. probably the southern half of the peninsula, but maybe a little north of the official track. that's what i was floating with some people yesterday afternoon, and that's what i'm not-so-comfortably going to float on the forum now.
mike c doesn't really dig the mongering, overzealous sorts of forecasts... and this is definitely beyond the official position the site would take...
but i'm thinking we'll see a double landfall hurricane out of this... the ridge fixed over the interior southeast with a weakness progged over northern mexico... think it'll work it's way across the northern gulf and make another hit on the western gulf coast (with more emphasis on texas than louisiana).
anyway, this'll all look real dumb if the storm winks out, but is what i expect will happen if it gets itself together.
HF 1636z01august
hey now, 60 odd reads and no replies? surely somebody disagrees... or has a better idea.
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 01 2006 06:33 PM)
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Posts: 184
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Doesn't seem like it's fizzling or "winking out"...so unfortunatly you seem to be right on track so far. I believe there's one more message to come out from recon...hope that info gets put into the models in time for the 18Z runs.
BTW...good for you for putting it out there like that.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Well except for an big uh-oh moment last night after James' dissipation forecast, thinking I must be really wrong to be so far on the other end of the spectrum, I've been bullish on this one since Sat morning, and pretty much in lock-step with Stace's discussions.
Earlier, this weekend, I emailed someone I thought it would 'go the distance' and likely make it to the GOM. I have more confidence in that scenario now than ever, and unless it gets mowed down by an ULL encounter, I expect it to reach major hurricane status and be a bit of a nail-biter.
Note another pop of convection now pushing north over the center (about 0100Z).
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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