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punkyg
Weather Watcher


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Loc: sanford, florida
Ingrid in central Atlantic
      #78134 - Sun Sep 09 2007 10:11 AM

91L was declared a little earlier, but its not too late to make a thread.


Edited by MikeC (Fri Sep 14 2007 04:27 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 91L in central atlantic [Re: punkyg]
      #78135 - Sun Sep 09 2007 10:16 AM

Here's another african wave nearing the Central Atlantic, this one is fairly far south. I'm not expecting another solid west tracker like Dean and Felix, but it's a bit too early to tell at the moment.

What do you think this one will do?


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punkyg
Weather Watcher


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Re: 91L in central atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #78138 - Sun Sep 09 2007 10:57 AM

I'll tell you this i think it will get past 15n, but not be a fish storm.

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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
91L [Re: punkyg]
      #78140 - Sun Sep 09 2007 12:10 PM

Please delete this post MODs.

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punkyg
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
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Loc: sanford, florida
Re: 91L [Re: ltpat228]
      #78191 - Sun Sep 09 2007 10:36 PM

000
ABNT20 KNHC 100227
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND IT
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 15 MPH.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

Edited by punkyg (Mon Sep 10 2007 05:18 PM)


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
92L Removed [Re: punkyg]
      #78201 - Mon Sep 10 2007 11:04 AM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

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punkyg
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: sanford, florida
Re: 91L [Re: punkyg]
      #78216 - Mon Sep 10 2007 05:21 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg
Well people 91L has gotten better organized since yesterday
so lets get to talking about, when this will become a tropical depression.
i'm thinking maybe wensneday morning.


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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
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Re: 91L [Re: punkyg]
      #78219 - Mon Sep 10 2007 06:33 PM

as 91L continues to get better organized and with no major inhibiting factors looking to prevent development, i ask a few things for the future of this system despite no one having true answers for this far out. first, i have noticed that just about all the models develop this and strengthen it. an earlier GFDL model didnt do much to it and now has it reaching hurricane strength on the latest run and the HWRF model makes it even stronger. as far down the line as anyone can see is there anything that will at least slow or hamper development because from everything i have seen the conditions are ripe for continued intensification. secondly, as the early track models show, this can be pulled a bit more to the north but then be forced back to the west by the high pressure towards the end of the run. again, too early to tell but is there anything way down the line at the end of the runs that would not allow the continued westward push or does this look like it will definitely affect someone along the southeast coast? certainly not wanting to be an alarmist but these early runs on the system as far as the track goes reminds me of what Andrew did. as we know things change constantly and what we think will happen does not happen. still plenty of time to watch this but the early set up of this potential storm has given me a little flashback to 1992.

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hurricaneguy
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Loc: Greeneville, TN
Re: 91L [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #78220 - Mon Sep 10 2007 07:14 PM

A path similar to that of which Andrew took is a possibility. If the storm forms and right now it seems likely it has a chance, it will probably go to the NW or NNW as the GFDL and HWRF show. This would be due to that extra tropical low above the Atlantic drawing the storm northward. However, as has been the trend this season models are hinting a strong ridge could build and block the storm from re curving. This could set up a westward jog. The question is the timing and how strong the ridge could be. Although a fish storm is likely residents on the east coast need to watch this one. Plenty of time to watch this one too and of course what I just said is counting on a development and there is no guarantee with that. My two cents!




--------------------


Edited by hurricaneguy (Mon Sep 10 2007 07:20 PM)


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mountainfrog
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1
Loc: Dominican Republic, SamanĂ¡
Right Turn Up [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #78241 - Tue Sep 11 2007 05:02 PM

As I can see from the computer models the system's track is now more established, well, at least more than it was earlier on.
I must say I do like the curve to the north as we would hate to see an 'Humberto' get near our place (SamanĂ¡, Dom. Rep.).
Of course we'd not want to see any damage done to anybody wherever that L may go.

Saludos
m'frog

--------------------
Everything goes its Caribbean way.


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
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Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: punkyg]
      #78269 - Wed Sep 12 2007 01:52 AM

Sound asleep, I suddenly woke up and ambled over to my computer, in an oddly counter-clockwise fashion. Looked at a couple of Central Atlantic sat pics, and suddenly felt somewhat depressed - pun VERY much intended.

My observation of 91L is that today the first approximation of a CDO occured, and moreso was maintained during today's diurnal min. cycle. Often times we will see these larger "gyre's" evolve off the African coast , with multiple low level vorticies competing for low level convergence. Its seems appearant that at least a somewhat "stacked" low to mid level circulation has evolved and unless upper level conditions deteriorate, morning satellite should confirm the likely formation of a depression. My guess is that there may be no rush to classify 91L as such, until mid day or perhaps later. Though anticyclonic over all, there may be some slight southerly shear aloft yet, but should the convection be persistant, and given a little better evidence of banding, it should only be an issue of "when", rather than "if" a depression will form. In fact, , once established, I would be surprised if not named Humberto within 12 hours of officially classified as depression. Then comes the fun part......... the big "where" question. There will be plenty of time for that, and I for one have no reason to rush yet into whether or not someone's Aunt Hollie will or will not, have her picnic ruined by Cat. 7 1/2 conditions - 11 days out from now! My short term and general observations would be the following:
Given this season's overall persistance of steering, I would be surprised if this system were to develop just to simply turn N.W.'ward and just keep on going ( this year 'ain't 1981 - "attack of the killer fish spinners" ); eventual recurvature this time of year is certainly possible, but premature to yet judge either way yet. Given the larger envelope size of 91L, at least significantly larger than the previous Tropical Pimple -Gabrielle, I feel pretty confident that the Global and Dynamic models should have a pretty good handle on this one. Just need to wait for a good inialization, perhaps late tomm. or Thurs. Finally, as this interesting chunk of Tropical Trouble evolves, rather than focus exclusively on what some Canadian Rockies trough may drop into the upper U.S. midwest in a week, one might want to look farther EAST. LIke the arcade game Asteroids, there's a bunch more "bad rocks" comin'. Some of the models are forecasting an even more significant system to form just to the east of 91L. Now, I don't know if its the MJO moving east, Climotology, bad Karma, or simply a series of potent waves coming off Africa, but the significance of another somewhat close proximity storm forming just to the east of 91L ( if a large-scale circulation ), would very potentially impact the steering of 91L.. such impact would tend to "steer" the western-most storm more westward, or at least less "poleward". If in fact this system does continue to develop into Humberto, I do not believe it will will be another "westward runner", nor do I believe only a "fish spinner" only to threaten Bermuda. I do believe there could be a real downstream concern for the Bahamas and thus could be a nail biter for the Southeast U.S.

One final thought - I normally give the Canadian model little thought or attention. For the most part, it is of my opinion that this model is composed of lab rats diped in ink, and then let loose to run. The typical frantic formation of tropical systems are simply where those rats jumped and ran, for that particular model's 12 hr. run. This said, given the prediction of an over active Sept/Oct., along with whatever latent La Nina impact, and especially taking into account climotology, this over sensative model may prove somewhat more credible over the nest few weeks, than its overall history ( relative to historical tropical cyclone genesis forecasting ).


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: TD#8 in central Atlantic [Re: punkyg]
      #78291 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:13 AM

TD#8 is moving much slower than most systems out at that longitude, at the rate it's moving it wouldn't be until late next week it could affect anywhere in the US. It'll still be east of the islands on Monday, it seems.

It's going to have a pretty good battle with shear too. Because of all that it's most likely going to be a fish spinner type system, but it'll depend on how conditions are this weekend into next week.

It'll likely be a fish spinner because of all the opportunities it will have to be picked up by fronts, it likely won't touch the Caribbean islands either. But both of those statements are speculation really.


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: TD#8 in central Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #78296 - Wed Sep 12 2007 12:09 PM

Tropical depression 8 has finally developed out of a strong tropical wave in the central Atlantic.

It has a chance at making Hurricane status in 7 days, meaning this is a slow mover. It will intensify to either Humberto or Ingrid (depends what happens with TD9 near Texas, next analysis). The storm in a few days will hit a good area of unfavorable conditions for development which should keep the storm at TS strength. I like the NHC forecast track but here is my own track.. my first run which I am 45% sure on right now.

I am very confident in the track for 5 days.. as a strong cold front that is draped over just north of the Carribean should block any recurve out to sea. The storm should at least get to the Bahamas with no problem, then it could start to curve north near Florida then out to sea due to the strong incoming cold fronts from Canada. This also means Fall has arrived! Now there's also a chance that the storm with hit Florida as a category 2 or 3 hurricane and move in the Gulf and strengthen into a 4 or even a 5 since we had no storms in that area of the Gulf yet. So stay tuned.
Not wishcasting, just going by what I've been seeing with the pattern.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Wed Sep 12 2007 12:21 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: TD#8 in central Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #78301 - Wed Sep 12 2007 12:57 PM

With TD#8, to add, we might have a situation where it gets sheared back into a wave again, and it would regenerate later further west. I forgot to mention, the out to sea idea was dependent more on it strengthening faster than forecast. Since it's going to be entering into a higher shear zone.

This one is a week and a half to two weeks out because of forward motion, a heckofa lot could happen.


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


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Re: TD#8 in central Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #78323 - Wed Sep 12 2007 04:46 PM

With TD 8's slow movement, I think we need a provision for naming a storm that exists in two different hurricane seasons.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: TD#8 in central Atlantic [Re: Ed in Va]
      #78328 - Wed Sep 12 2007 05:41 PM

Tropical Depression 8 is nearing Tropical Storm status according to the NHC. The forecast track sounds very reasonable, including the forecast strength.. wind shear 25 - 30 knots are running from the Carribean to east of Bermuda. The storm should stay at TS strength.. once it nears the Bahamas, the shear may lighten up enough to strengthen into a Hurricane. the ridge COULD be weak enough to start pulling it north, then maybe east just west of the Bahamas.. I still stand strong on that prediction.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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punkyg
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: sanford, florida
Re: TD#8 in central Atlantic [Re: allan]
      #78406 - Thu Sep 13 2007 07:12 AM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg
Man i can make out TD8's center easily.
its between the convection and the ball of convection.
but i expect it to fire some convection today and tonight so i won't freak out yet.


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: TD#8 in central Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #78425 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:30 PM

Shear is getting the best of the mid and upper level circulation but I am not seeing any impact on the LLC which is very impressive in this loop. I just don't see this system opening back up with this much energy at the surface. As far as near term development is concerned shear looks to be a factor all the way to 70W. As slow as TD-8 is moving that could change.(time sensitive)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist

Edited by craigm (Sat Sep 15 2007 09:06 AM)


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M.A.
Unregistered




Re: TD#8 in central Atlantic [Re: craigm]
      #78435 - Thu Sep 13 2007 05:40 PM

Hello to all. I have been a ghost reader of the board for two seasons. I wish to thank everyone in charge for such a great informational site. Very good job. I have a question for a Met concerning the latest sat loop.
I have a pretty good understanding of how things work. My question is on something that I cannot explain to myself. On the sat loop it looks as though there is a weaker low pressure circling around the more dominate TD#8 COC. This appears to be in the upper levels. Is what I am seeing part of the circulation of TD #8 that has been torn off in the upper levels by shear? I have never seen this before. But with the way the season is going so far, I guess there has been a few things that no one has seen before. I would appreciate any enlightenment you can offer. And what if any affect will this have on the development?

Thanks for such an informative site.


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JayJ
Unregistered




Re: TD#8 in central Atlantic [Re: craigm]
      #78440 - Thu Sep 13 2007 09:11 PM

NRL is now showing TD#8 as Ingrid.

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