GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Ok, I have to ask. I have refrained from weathermongering since the onset of Cane season due to a variety of reasons, one mainly being the financial aspects of trying to call storms early. But, this one looks like its got Jerry's name plastered on it with a surprise visit by Monday morning through Tampa Bay area, with the look of an Erica, or another Cat 1 look to it. I think it will be just strong enough to let the Civil defense workers bust out their practice evacuation routes and/or spend the morning cancelling school and public services. It will give my work place the opportunity to cover up some work equipment in the morning in time for the evening shift to come in and uncover it......fun..... different for this season.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4112
Loc: Orlando, FL
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94Ls surface low looks like it'll encounter shear once it gets into the Bay of Campeche, so i'm doubting this will even develop now. Still worth watching, however. Conditions may become more favorable later still, and the fact it is in the Gulf makes it even more unpredictable.
This is probably the most likely to develop of the waves, but i doubt it'll get too strong.
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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Well, it's not Jerry. *LOL* The one in the north Atlantic received that designation. The models are showing it being a Tex-Mex storm. Why do you think it's going to be a FL storm?
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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A rose by any other name smells as sweet. Shakespeare
I did get the name wrong but I think they did not want a catchy name plastered to a threatening storm.
They used to not name nonthreatening storms, if my memory recalls. Ok lets name it the K name which I will have to look up.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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They used to not name storms, period, if you go back far enough. Then, they only named storms that they knew about, since it was pre-satellites when they began naming them I believe.
As for 94L... the actual LOW center is not likely to be much of a threat to anyone, but just looking at the continuous flow of moisture coming out of the system and into the central Gulf region, it's impressive in terms of the amount of rain it's going to provide. I don't think it's likely, but I wouldn't be shocked if the LLC were to reform, either, close to the massive convection.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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But you didn't say why you think 94L is going to be a FL storm when the models are pushing it west? (With the exception of the CLP5 model, which has hooked EVERY single storm to the right of the track of all the other models. *LOL* )
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Lets not harp on the issue - remember, in the Forecast Lounge rationale is not required.
ED
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4112
Loc: Orlando, FL
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This system has gone from "most likely to develop" to least likely. It mostly avoided the Bay of Campeche and is in the Central Gulf now, it still could form, but chances are falling.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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oh its got its act together this morning... just a little shear from the SW, but that should weaken.... looks to be heading WNW
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4112
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
This system has gone from "most likely to develop" to least likely. It mostly avoided the Bay of Campeche and is in the Central Gulf now, it still could form, but chances are falling.
Then they suddenly shot up after I wrote that. In fact it's doing all the right things, may be even called by 5PM if not sooner if recon gets in there.
This one is in light steering currents which most of the time would put it wildly tracking, but the high forecast to build north of it will push it generally west if not south of west into Mexico. Upper air seems to indicate it won't get to anything stronger than Tropical Storm strength, either.
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srquirrely
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: SARASOTA
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Something that looks alot like a tropical wave seems to be wanting to form over Lake Okeechobee...
I know it's a big lake, but with our current drought conditions I doubt if it's big enough !
Is this possible? Is the Florida peninsula not big enough to be considered land ? :?:
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 441
Loc: Georgia Tech
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Well, it feel apart in the afternoon but so far tonight it looks like it's building some moderate convection around the center the site has sat shots from GOES-11 that isn't under blackout so you can see the developing convection to the SE of the center, to the North, and over the center. Looks to be a little shear over the storm, but less than before, the convection certainly isn't organized enough to call it a depression, but it should keep it around for a bit longer. (as the mantra of the ages, persistence in convection is the key)
If it has convection around the center in 12 hours... that's the key for development, otherwise it'll have to hope to pulse again. (it's moving slowly enough to have a few days to get it's act together, so maybe it'll be better for it to wait... heh)
I can't even hazard a percentage on development, I just know it's not there right now. but it could be in 24 hours.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2019.
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