Bloodstar
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At this point, I'm thinking there won't be much to worry about with Noel. It's still a cohesive LLC and Cuba isn't a wide island, but it's going to have trouble keeping together if the system remains decoupled.
Now Mind you, if it maintains a LLC and is decoupled, it could just chug west and perhaps regenerate, but at this point I'm not holding my breath. (We need rain in the North Georgia area and we need it bad)
What a sloppy looking storm. heh
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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LoisCane
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i think for a weak tropical storm its looking incredible
considering it went across cuba all day, its exploding on the north side and the pocket is huge
hasn't followed the plan so far.. why now?
where is this big front by the way, as i said earlier on my blog if you look at the WV since this morning it has gone flat and high pressure is to the north of the storm.. the storm turned west when the orientation of the frontal boundary went fron nw to se to w to east...
the shortwave in texas is not impressive, there ..but not impressive
i say it eventually curves but where and when
timing is everything
very very very windy in miami tonight, the gradient is strong because the storm is strong
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Lee-Delray
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We jus lost power here for about 20 minutes. The wind and the rain will make it a blinking night. I just found out my generator works.
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jessiej
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It looks like the out flow on the WV loop is hitting the wall before 79 degrees. The 8pm update only moved it 0.1 degrees west in the last 3 hours. This might be the turn to the north/northeast that is anticipated.
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Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005
Edited by jessiej (Wed Oct 31 2007 12:52 AM)
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scottsvb
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The center actually got down to about 20.7N around 1pm eastern then went to about 21N so it wobbled WNW or NW but only at 4-5mph and with the 11am adv from point to point they kept it as W at 5pm...now its still moving the same direction and speed of 4mph. I think any more west movement will be slight in nature. Satellite and water vapor imagry shows the midlevel high cuts off near 79W so it wont get past that. As said earlier...maybe 78.5-79W.A NNW motion at a slow speed tonight and a general pick up of speed on Weds to the NNW then curving ahead of the trough tomorrow night NE thru San Andros Island and eastern Grand Bahama....this should become a moderate-strong TS with winds near 60mph but also then become extra-tropical on Thursday.
I dont feel TS warnings or watches should be issues for SE Florida..some showers might get come onshore though in bands.
NEXT!!!!
scottsvb
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danielw
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Looks like the combination of Noel and the High over the Eastern US are giving Southeastern FL plenty of worries at the moment.
FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1000 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172>174-310300-
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
W PALM BEACH MOCLDY 78 70 76 E25G35 29.99R
FT LAUDER-EXEC PTCLDY 77 69 76 NE16G29 29.94S
FT LAUDERDALE MOCLDY 82 70 66 NE22G33 29.92S
POMPANO BEACH MOCLDY 79 72 78 E25G31 29.95R
PEMBROKE PINES PTCLDY 80 70 71 NE28G33 29.96R
OPA LOCKA CLOUDY 80 70 71 NE20G30 29.93R
MIAMI MOCLDY 79 69 71 NE14 29.93R
MIAMI BEACH N/A 80 73 79 NE41 29.90R
WEST KENDALL PTCLDY 78 71 79 NE18G26 29.92R
HOMESTEAD HVY RAIN 76 72 86 NE29G37 29.92R
STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
LAKE WORTH 77 70/ 17/ 20 1015.4R
FOWEY ROCKS 80 81 50/ 33/ 36 1012.8R
SETTLEMENT POINT 79 50/ 26/ 28 1014.8R
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danielw
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Camaguey Aeropuerto, Cuba (MUCM) 21-25N 077-51W 118M
Oct 30, 2007 - 08:54 PM EST / 2007.10.31 0154 UTC
Wind: Variable at 2 MPH (2 KT):0
Visibility: 4 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: overcast
Weather: light rain
Temperature: 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point: 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity: 88%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.62 in. Hg (1003 hPa)
ob: MUCM 310154Z VRB02KT 7000 -RA BKN009 OVC060 25/23 Q1003
Santiago De Cuba, Oriente, Cuba (MUCU) 19-58N 075-51W 55M
Oct 30, 2007 - 08:52 PM EST / 2007.10.31 0152 UTC
Wind: from the SSE (150 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 KT) gusting to 35 MPH (30 KT) (direction variable):0
Visibility: 4 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: mostly cloudy
Weather: light rain; Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature: 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point: 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity: 88%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.74 in. Hg (1007 hPa)
ob: MUCU 310152Z 15020G30KT 100V210 7000 -RA FEW008 SCT015CB BKN020 27/25 Q1007
Camaguey Aeropuerto, Cuba (MUCM) 21-25N 077-51W 118M
Oct 30, 2007 - 08:54 PM EST / 2007.10.31 0154 UTC
Wind: Variable at 2 MPH (2 KT):0
Visibility: 4 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: overcast
Weather: light rain
Temperature: 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point: 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity: 88%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.62 in. Hg (1003 hPa)
ob: MUCM 310154Z VRB02KT 7000 -RA BKN009 OVC060 25/23 Q1003
Guantanamo, Leeward Point Field, Cuba (MUGM) 19-54-23N 075-12-25W 23M
Oct 30, 2007 - 08:55 PM EST / 2007.10.31 0155 UTC
Wind: from the S (170 degrees) at 33 MPH (29 KT) gusting to 39 MPH (34 KT):0
Visibility: greater than 7 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: overcast
Temperature: 81.0 F (27.2 C)
Dew Point: 77.0 F (25.0 C)
Relative Humidity: 87%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.74 in. Hg (1007 hPa)
ob: MUGM 310155Z 17029G34KT 9999 BKN030 OVC090 27/25 A2974 RMK PK WND 16034/54 SLP071 T02720250
Aeropuerto Jose Marti, Rancho-Boyeros, Habana, Cuba (MUHA) 22-59N 082-24W 75M
Oct 30, 2007 - 08:55 PM EST / 2007.10.31 0155 UTC
Wind: from the NNE (030 degrees) at 13 MPH (11 KT):0
Visibility: 3 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: mostly cloudy
Temperature: 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point: 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity: 88%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.85 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
ob: MUHA 310155Z 03011KT 6000 BKN015 25/23 Q1011
Holguin Civ / Mil , Cuba (MUHG) 20-47N 076-19W
Oct 30, 2007 - 08:51 PM EST / 2007.10.31 0151 UTC
Wind: from the SSE (150 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 KT) (direction variable):0
Visibility: 5 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: overcast
Weather: light rain
Temperature: 75 F (24 C)
Dew Point: 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity: 94%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.71 in. Hg (1006 hPa)
ob: MUHG 310151Z 15008KT 090V190 9000 -RA SCT020 OVC090 24/23 Q1006
Varadero, Matanzas, Cuba (MUVR) 23-08N 081-17W 3M
Oct 30, 2007 - 08:52 PM EST / 2007.10.31 0152 UTC
Wind: from the NNE (030 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 KT) (direction variable):0
Visibility: 4 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: partly cloudy
Temperature: 75 F (24 C)
Dew Point: 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity: 88%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.85 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
ob: MUVR 310152Z 03008KT 360V090 8000 SCT008 24/22 Q1011
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cieldumort
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This ship report is close enough to the center (likely from within a band, and somewhat less influenced by the pressure gradient interaction with the High than say, Miami) such that, along with the significantly improved satellite appearance tonight .. along with any other data that comes in tonight, may actually nudge 's hand at upgrading Noel at 2AM. It is clear that Noel's LLC has been close enough to offshore of the southern Cuban coastline, or perhaps infrequently even just barely offshore, that Noel has most likely been able to draw a fair amount of energy up from the Caribbean, despite being largely over land.
Here's the impressive ship report from 0100Z
SHIP 0100Z 25.30N 77.40W E 49.9 knots 29.71"
If this gets verified to having occurred within a squall it's probably fair to say that some of the outer bands are producing winds up to 60MPH (at least within the region still getting some extra kick from the pressure gradient).
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weathernet
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Well, sitting here catching a partial 11:00pm advisory, I have to admit was fully anticipating a westward motion of the "magical mystery cone"; contrary, it has shifted eastward. Motion now reported to be Northwest at 5mph. I still believe we'll see a westward shift.
Interestingly, I am not seeing the de-coupling of the low level and mid level that I might have anticipated. Moreso, and I realize that I am the "outlier" against popular thought, I believe that Noel will either continue to move between West and WNW, perhaps a short term NW motion, but then back to a slow West, eratic or practically stationary motion. Just now looking at the 0Z NAM, I cannot help but notice a double barrel high - one to Noel's east and one to the west. 36 hour 500mb shows a trough hanging southwest, yet the flow ahead of it is not Southwesterly?! Overall Eastern flow appears zonal, and beyond a weakness swinging out in 36 hr., I believe Noel is gonna hang around a while. Not gonna guess where he's going, but i'll truly be surprised to see the long awaited north turn ( albeit am probably the only one who will be ). Just to take it one step further, should a unanticipated turn to the WSW insue, than I believe that the upper air would be conducive for fair development if remaining just south of W. Cuba. All this would mean S. Fla. to potentially get copious rains, while on the Northern periphery.
Then again......if i'm wrong, it should become obvious within 8 hours.
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dem05
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Okay. It is 11PM, the new advisory is out and I have some interesting footnotes...This is one of the few times that I will reference a text product we all can read outside of the thread...But it is time to build a case of clarity in light of some possible confusion???
Please note...I love and trust all the guys at the ...They are the best minds in Hurricane forecasting that we have.
11PM Disco Footnote tostart us off:
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA AND THE CAMAGUEY RADAR INDICATE THE
THE CENTER IS NOT FAR FROM THE CITY OF CAMAGUEY. INFRARED IMAGERY
AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THAT INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NOT
FAR EAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS
REMAINED OVER LAND IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT NOEL HAS STRENGTHENED AND
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.
CENTER FIXES FROM SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA
SUGGEST THAT NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE WESTWARD MOTION HAS CEASED.
I call the center fix a compromise...there are two reasons for this:
1. Have a good look at the Cuban Radar, the center is not clearly visible where it is depicted...However, along the north coast, there is what some may argue to be a 1/5 to 1/4 eyewall wrapping around a center of circulation.
LINK: http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB.../cmwMAXw01a.gif
2. Interestingly, the center is not there...and probably isn't at the forecast point either. It may be exiting/have exited Cuba over the Carribean. Please reference this link and visit Vis/IR2 Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp
THE CASE: Sometimes...we hammer down to pinpoint an exact center...As we also knowin Hurricane preparedness, don't focus on the exact pinpoint center of circulation. In this case, some smaller vorticities are possibly circulating around and are visible on radar (more than likely as I saw at least one earlier this afternoon that came intoCuba from the Atlantic). Otherwise, the system has also likely started to loose some of it's main core due to land interaction...on that note, we need to focus on the broader view and look at the overall circulation pattern. According to RAMSDIS, I would say that the overall circulation of Noel contines to the west, dispite radar obs...and if you look at the loop, I think you will agree that the general core area continues westward and is deviod of much activity....Any low, may meander...wobble or move erratically withing the main circulation envelope...even though that envelope is moving in it's own direction.
The 11PM advisory looks to me as more of a compromise between the radar Presentation and the satellite presentation. If you draw a SW to NE line, the 11 PM center will be right about in the middle. Noel is not done either way, but overall, I think the center continues westward based on the larger picture.
Finally, He will turn north...I love those Steering Charts Allan. Always a personal favorite. If you click the +3 and -3 buttons, it is apparent the high is slowly "eastbound and down...Loaded up and truckin'" In it's own way, so Noel will turn.. When? Is going to remain my question as I agree to disagree in a 315 degree forward motion...You can't will something to do something it is not doing....Fornow, a low level circulation is westbound, while other activity exists...
Bottom Line, difuse system with now "crystal" clear answers over the next 12-24 hours...
Edited by dem05 (Wed Oct 31 2007 03:59 AM)
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scottsvb
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There is nothing to push this westward...even the LLF is moving NW and thats what carring Noel...Midflow is NNW then turns sharply NE near 28N and thats forecasted to bend to a easterly direction. The center is broad right now but the general broad circulation has been moving NW since early this afternoon when it got as far south as about 20.7N just after noon time today then the wobbling NW started at 4-5mph.
Overall the split trough boundry is around 78.5-79W so it wont get past that...the LLF and MLF is about 330dg then around by 78.5W it turns almost due N then NE around 27.5-28N
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weathernet
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Just to add to the curious data, contrary to that which would support a northward turn - 0Z run of at 18hr. ( looking at the 500mb level ), clearly shows the short wave in question over the W. Great Lakes region. At the same time, under the zonal flow, comes "Mr. Texas 500mb High" poking his head with an advancement eastward from 18hrs to 48 hours plus. From 18 hours on, the steering level flow is FROM the north in the eastern Gulf, off Key West, and around 80W just south of Cuba. This flow is maintained for a couple of days thereafter. The only component that I can see that would influence a northward motion, is the same one which has yet to bring Noel to such fruition - the 200mb level. Especially given the more shallow system now that Noel is somewhat spread out, and having spent time enjoying the delicious but weighty Arroz con Pollo from Cuba, how does one make a logical case for an immediate turn?
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scottsvb
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only chance that Noel has,,,,,,, is to miss the trough and its not amplified as much as it is now,, and what the models show,, and if Noel is weaker....and if a new center develops overnight and over the water and leaves the existing Noel LLC behind....alot of ifs here..... then it should move SSW and meander in the NW carribean but as a weak LLC. I dont expect all this to happen though.
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weathernet
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Scott,
I am not sure what you are talking about with regards to the steering flow at about 28 degree north being "Northeasterly"?! If you look at the 0Z 500mb analysis, you should notice a northward bulging ridge which by chance is practically parked directly over Eastern Cuba. That 500mb Northeast wind barb you are looking at is at "1:00 o'clock" within this bubble high. You are merely noticing the normal periphery wind flow as would be on any northeast quadrant of a round high pressure ridge.
As for the "trough line" you are referring to, unless you are looking at distinctly different maps than I am looking at, I have to believe you are referencing the shear zone as well depicted on satellite. However, you are making corresponding comparisons to this point and Noel's forward motion, which again would be typically steered by 500mb level, much less lower level given the more shallow system that it likely is. I might agree that given a potential westward motion, that given this shear, it is possible that new convection may be limited as Noel might move farther westward, but this is not to say that a low level shallow system should be impacted by whats happening "upstairs". For that matter, 200mb depicts an area about 100 or so miles to the west that in about 24-36 hours would seem to be conducive for development.
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weathernet
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F.Y.I. - As of 1:20am, the IR2 ( shortwave ) nicely depicts an approx. 400 mile wide gyre clearly moving westward with the center approaching 80W, and just south of the Cuban coast. Am seeing no associated convection to the west or south, but the huge bulk of convection in Noel's eastern quadrant does seem to be expanding westward. I am however seeing the mid level clouds increasing toward this low level center, and only time will tell if we are seeing the beginning of a de-coupling of the system, or if the northern edge of all the convection over the Bahamas is about to warm significantly and drop off, meanwhile newer convection perhaps attempting to reform close to ( or at least moving west in tandem with ) Noel.
Can't wait to see tomm. vis. pictures. Hmmm, wonder if will be calling Noel's motion at 12Z "northward" or "northeastward" (LOL).
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cieldumort
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A very nice Windsat pass from 2300Z lends a lot of credence to the 0100Z ship report of 50 knots. This ship report came in 240 km from the estimated coc, well-within 's 175 m northeast quad 34 knot range ring, and out of the "right" direction given the location of the report ("right," as in much more indicative of the surface cyclonic circulation than of the "Noel Nor'easter" underway).
There is a bounty of entirely believable 35-45 knot wind barbs in this scat pass, both to the north of the center, as well as to the southeast, within the stronger Caribbean inflow. The distance of the stronger winds from the actual center, along with Noel's several-day interaction with an associated ULL, suggests to me that Noel is still something of a hybrid, which also might help explain why he fared so well over Haiti and the DR.
(Windsat link)
We are in a real data void as far as recon here. It would be quite helpful if they would fly around Cuba, along the southern coast, as well. To continue flights to the north of the island is to give up the opportunity to see how much the center is or is not actually offshore, in the Caribbean, as well as to collect more wind data and get a better handle on the true max. sustained winds (not just those being affected by the High to the north).
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danielw
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I hate to do this, as both of you have presented a great deal of information backing your thoughts and theories.
But... it's the end of round One.
Break time for those of us reading the posts.
I'm a might bit rusty due to the slow season at hand. But it appears that a shortwave has now cleared a Cameron,LA to Brownsville,Tx line. Using the water vapor loop here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
However, if this is the shortwave that is forecast to 'pick up' Noel. I noticed in the last few frames that the southward extension or amplification has ceased at this time. Nearly on the same latitude as Brownsville,Tx. Moving due east would put in near a Naples to Miami line in about 12-18 hours. Close enough to Noel to possibly lift the storm out into the Atlantic.
Also note on the GOM WV loop. Bottom right hand corner is the western edge of Noel's cloud signature. Something... is flattening the western side of the cloud envelope. Very little arc to it at this time.
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danielw
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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT WED OCT 31 2007
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z ( 8 AM EDT Wed to 8 AM EDT Thursday)
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS FORECAST BY TO MOVE NWD TOWARD SE FL TODAY... VEERING NNEWD AND ACCELERATING TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE TROPICAL STORM WILL AFFECT
SERN FL TODAY AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AS OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS OF THE SYSTEM GRAZE THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SE FL MAINTAIN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS SRN FL WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK... THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE A MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM REACHES ITS CLOSEST DISTANCE FROM THE FL COAST.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT WED OCT 31 2007
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE TRACK OF NOEL...IT
APPEARS MOST PROBABLE THAT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF VEERING AWAY FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD NEGATE ANY
APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
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weathernet
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ROUND 2! ( kidding ) - Anyways, probably not a bad idea getting at least 4 hours of sleep tonight!
Daniel, one thought on the dry slot that you mentioned. I think it may be just that - a dry slot, but beyond that, in looking at the 0Z data, and checking all levels from 200mb down to surface, I was able to find a minimal reflection of this feature between 500mb and 700mb. There was however, minimal wind shift noticable at any level with this feature, and furthermore, was not in phase with the stronger short wave over ( or just west of the Great Lakes ). That is to say, that it was not "attached" to any feature out of the westerlies, and underneigth the more or less zonal flow. Just not sure how this feature itself serves as any mechanism for steering.
And.................yawn.......good night..... zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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danielw
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I didn't look that far north on the 'shortwave'. So it is more like a shorter shortwave or pertubations in the zonal flow?
I'm with you guys on the " will it pick it up, or not ". Noel should be named Noend... to the unpredictability.
Any 40mph T.S. with a satellite signature like the current one has my attention.
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