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CoconutCandy
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Eastern Pacific Starts Percolating / Invest 94E / MJO Fizzles ??
      #80171 - Wed Jun 25 2008 11:27 AM Attachment (340 downloads)

Aloha from Beautiful Honolulu,

Greetings all. Here goes my first post of the new season.

Well, I've been watching since Mid-May. No doubt about it. Things are starting to get very interesting!

Since mid-May, I've watched as the 'crucial' 26-degree isotherm has steadily tongued it's way westward from Mexico and Central America out into the vast expanse of the Tropical Eastern and Central Pacific Oceans.

It's quite remarkable to see just how closely correlated the extent and intensity of the ITCZ depends on the underlying sea surface temps (SST's).

In short, the ITCZ in the EastPac has *dramatically* expanded in extent and intensity compared to a month or so ago. Of course, all this is quite normal, as we enter the Summer Season and the oceans begin to warm in earnest.

And other seasonal factors appear to be shaping up, as well, including a generally and increasingly favorable upper-level environment and stronger cross-equatorial flow from the southern hemisphere; hence the recent flare-up and westward propagation of a now rather active ITCZ, now extending all the way out into the Central Pacific over the past few days.

My, what a difference a month makes!

For all you 'Met Techies', here's a little something regarding the so-called Madden-Julian Oscillation, which I gleaned from the Tropical Weather Discussion for the EastPac, from a few weeks ago: (Remember, this is from about 2 weeks ago!)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FINALLY...REAL-TIME NCEP RE-ANALYSIS DATA INDICATE ANOMALOUS CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS AT UPPER-LEVELS EITHER SIDE OF THE DATE-LINE AROUND 20N AND 20S.

A STREAM OF ANOMALOUS WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...WITH ANOMALIES OF 20 TO 60 KT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...EXTENDS FROM THE DATELINE TO FAR E AS 120W. THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW PRECEDES A MODERATELY STRONG MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN...WHICH IS SLOWLY HEADING EAST.

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS ARE ELUSIVE AT THIS TIME...THE CURRENT MJO SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INDIAN OCEAN AND WESTERN PACIFIC IN THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO...LIKELY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY.

THE EXPECTATION IS THAT A SIMILAR INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE VERY END OF JUNE OR THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And, as Hurricane29 pointed out here this past Sunday:

Quote:



"Interesting to note if the current SOI trend continues it could be a sign that the atlantic basin may not be to far away from coming to life. With an MJO pulse set to move in about 2 weeks time frame, things might get interesting."






Here we are at the end of June. And guess what? There are now several *strong* waves with deep bursting convection, at least one of which might well undergo cyclogenesis over the next few days.

The eastern-most wave, currently the subject of Invest 94E, was mentioned by cieldumort in a post here a couple days ago:

Quote:



"I am giving some consideration to recent FSUMM5 runs, which have suggested that an Eastern Pacific system forms and runs NNWD, which might make one think it could follow the same route that Alma took before her remnants helped jump over into the Caribbean to help form Arthur. Indeed a new low pressure center appears now to be forming in the vicinity of 90W 7.5N, (now near 99W) ( ... with most models ... ) driving it decidedly west, of course. ... Should the disturbance in the far eastern pacific develop further, and I suspect that it very well might, it would be the next named system out there."






The latest discussion continues to hint at the likely possibility of TC formation, as the amplitude of this wave is sharpening and effecting the ITCZ:

"TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AROUND THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING AS THE ITCZ IS
BECOMING MORE INFLECTED."

It appears to be organizing by the hour, now that we have a good daylight visual on it, and if trends continue, I suspect there may be a TCFA issued for this disturbance within a day or two.

Another wave is now seen between 120W and 125W, and, although smaller, has some very deep convection also, and apparent increasing organization over the past few hours.

Systems that form 120W, or farther west, are of greater interest to Hawaii than storms forming closer to Mexico. All storms that form here usually head "in the general direction" of the Hawaiian Islands, although very few arrive with much punch left in them after crossing over slightly cooler waters and, more importantly, SW shear that usually protects these Islands from incursions of marauding cyclones from the EastPac.

================================================



Finally, I'll wrap up here with a "late-breaking" note regarding the Madden-Julian Oscillation, from the Climate Prediction Center.

Although the MJO reasoning presented above appears to have correlated well with first Typhoon Fengshen forming a week or so ago, and now the increased activity in the EastPac basin, implying a steady eastward propagation of the MJO pulse, this MAY NOT be the case, after all. Read on!

From the latest "Expert Discussion" (June 23rd) from the good folks at the Climate Prediction Center:

( http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf )


- The MJO has become incoherent during the past week.

- Most MJO forecast tools indicate a generally incoherent MJO signal and combined with the most recent observations it is most likely the MJO will remain incoherent during the next 1-2 weeks.

- The MJO is expected to contribute little to the patterns of tropical convection during the next 1-2 weeks.


(Attachment Provided)

-------------------------------------------

So it looks like we may have to 'temper' that previous discussion of a few weeks ago, and may not be able to attribute, after all, EastPac cyclogenesis (if any) directly to a (now non-existant) MJO pulse propagating through the basin.

The MJO pulse event predicted two weeks ago appears to have "fizzled" ??

What are your thoughts on this? Is the MJO "pulse" still propagating eastward, but simply 'incoherent'? Does anyone have a better understanding of the MJO? And what are the implications of an 'incoherent' MJO on tropical storm formation in the EastPac and the Western Atlantic/Caribbean over the next few weeks? Would it be a "Non-Factor"? Thanks for your input and insights.

( Former Coconut Grove, Florida Resident from 1977-1980 )


Edited by CoconutCandy (Thu Jun 26 2008 02:16 AM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Eastern Pacific Starts Percolating / Invest 94E / MJO Fizzles ?? [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #80174 - Thu Jun 26 2008 03:31 AM

Delightful post.

It's abundantly clear tonight that Invest 94E (as tracked by NRL, but not as currently tracked by SSD) is right on the cusp. That there hasn't been a TCFA hoisted up on it already probably has more to do with timing, than with qualification.

This recent AMSUB Color Composite betrays a rather healthy incipient cyclone. Might take a while to see if it gets a name, or not, tho. It's still a bit caught in the clutches of the ITCZ, just yet.

The description of the MJO as "incoherent" interests me. Seems as good a description as any. The past several days I have been thinking of it as "fractured." Not sure just what this means, other than I think it could be deduced that convective activity might tend to break out just about anywhere, or anywhere that one of these "fractures" happens to be at any given moment... but also that such a convective push might be fleeting, and so perhaps not tenacious enough to allow for some of the would-be cyclones to percolate to fruition.

I wonder how long this phase lasts.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Eastern Pacific Starts Percolating / Invest 94E / MJO Fizzles ?? [Re: cieldumort]
      #80175 - Thu Jun 26 2008 03:51 AM

Addition of most recent (as of this post) positions of very well developed Invest 94E and newly-tagged Invest 95E

My own best guesses as to current position and approximate T numbers of each
Invest 94E: 10.5N 104.5W, CI 1.5 and improving
Invest 95E: 10N 116.5W, CI 1.0 and improving

And it appears that SSD has gotten a better handle on 94's location and intensity now:
26/0515 UTC 11.1N 103.8W T1.0/1.0 94E -- East Pacific Ocean
26/0600 UTC 11.8N 116.9W T1.0/1.0 95E -- East Pacific Ocean

My eyes are simply not in agreement with their positions.
Several LLCs exist within each Invest, which is probably making it a little tricky for all.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Admin Note [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #80176 - Thu Jun 26 2008 11:12 AM

As a reminder, the description of the Other Basins Forum states: ' Discussions for Typhoons, Hurricanes, and Tropical Cyclones not in the Atlantic ...'

An Invest is just an area of interest - but by definition it is not yet a Tropical Cyclone. My point is that CFHC does not 'wavemonger' in the Atlantic Basin - and we don't do it in the other basins either.

I'll keep the thread intact because of the other useful information in the posts - but lets wait and see if something develops before we get too carried away with it.
Thanks,
ED


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CoconutCandy
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Cyclogenesis Now Underway / 2 Peas in a Pod [Re: cieldumort]
      #80178 - Thu Jun 26 2008 03:33 PM Attachment (344 downloads)

Quick update on current EastPac developments:

Wave mongering notwithstanding, we have a couple of incipient cyclones out there.

We now have 2 areas of investigation, with depressions likely to form from both.

94E is becoming much better organized and is no longer classified as an open wave.

From the most recent discussion from the Tropical Prediction Center:

Quote:



"...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 11N104W...OR ABOUT 445 NM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING WNW 15 KT.

THE OVERALL CIRCULATION AND SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE ORGANIZED WITH ONE MAIN CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPING W/NW OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE PAST 5 HRS.

(A much larger banding feature has developed in the NE quad since then.)


THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS ANALYZED WITH THE LOW HAS BEEN REMOVED NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME MORE CIRCULAR."





So, if it's not a wave and it's not a depression (yet), then what is it? A 'disturbance'? A cyclonically rotating mesoscale convective complex? An area of investigation? All the above?

It certainly looks like a cyclone already, judging from an impressive passive microwave image taken not long ago. Have a peek, you'll see what I mean.

( See attachment provided )

Also, another invest has formed, 95E, and it too has a healthy broad circulation, with a couple low level circulations trying to consolidate. Looks like the LLC in the NE quad is the winner.

If both invests do go on to become cyclones, since they are so close together, I wonder if there will be a fujiwara effect come into play between them.

Alas, I getting a little ahead of myself. As Ed suggests, we'll all just have to take a "wait an see" attitude before we 'get too carried away'. I, for one, am not boarding my windows just yet.

But the main point I wanted to make in my first post was, now that the EastPac is percolating, it can't be too long before that tendency 'spills over' into the BOC, GOH or even the GOM. (Shooting from the hip here.)

I will soon post a follow-on to the Madden-Julian Oscillation 'Incoherence' issue in the Hurricane Ask/Tell forum, for those interested in persuing this phenomena in more detail.

Meanwhile, I heartedly suggest that this flare-up of activity in the EastPac may be of greater interest to more people than one may suspect, especially since the Atlantic basin is in snooze mode for the time being.

(Again, a reminder that the primary focus of CFHC is the Atlantic basin. If the EASTPAC Invests develop further, then this is the Forum to talk about them.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jun 26 2008 05:48 PM)


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CoconutCandy
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Impressive, Colorful QuikScat View of 94E [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #80179 - Thu Jun 26 2008 04:28 PM

Just noticed this new image on the Navy/NRL site.

It's a direct passover by the Quick Scatterometer satellite.

QuikScat Storm Page (Scroll down for links to current invests)
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/qscat_storm.pl

Wikipedia article with nice photo of the 'aging' Quick Scatterometer satellite that was the focus of so much controversy last year.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QuikSCAT

The circulation is becoming very symmetrical, despite what the visual satellite presentation currently shows.

Certainly looks like it's getting it's act together quite nicely. 30+ Kt. winds in all quads, and TS force barbs (rain contaminated) in the SE quad. Can you say TD-2E ??

Thought I'd share this little piece of "eye candy" with you before I sign off. Enjoy!





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CoconutCandy
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Cyclogenesis Now Well Underway [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #80181 - Fri Jun 27 2008 12:33 AM

Looks like 94E is on the cusp this evening. I see there is now the TCFA issued, as I expected, since organization has been steadily improving throughout the day. And the short-term upper level and thermodynamic environment is very favorable for cyclogenesis.

As noted in the most recent TWO, a tropical depression may form " ... at any time", if it hasn't done so already. Maybe it needs just a little more sustained deep convection for the T-number classification; those kinds of technical considerations.

But, as shown in the following image, the circulation is quite well defined and already taking on the classic cyclone signature, with hints of the 'clear' warm core developing, with many convective bands organizing in the classic pinwheel structure. Fun things to watch!



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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Cyclogenesis Now Well Underway [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #80182 - Fri Jun 27 2008 03:43 AM

Yeah, 94E has been on the cusp for about the last 24 hours. Typically, a T number from the agencies of 1.5 for a run or two can sometimes be enough to push their hand. This one has been up around 2.0 for several cycles. In general, it just needed to be a little less wrapped up in the ITCZ.

Besides, it's not like we have buoys and recon in there to give extra details about what is really going on. 25 knots is probably more than just a little conservative at this point, but there you have it (TD 2E "25 knots")



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