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Low in W. Carib now up to a 60% chance for development, Florida will be on the wet side of the system NE Gulf and Florida should watch.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 227 (Nate) , Major: 245 (Maria) Florida - Any: 255 (Irma) Major: 255 (Irma)
 


General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins

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CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
Tropical Storm Boris Gathers Stream
      #80183 - Fri Jun 27 2008 11:59 AM

Yep. It's official. Tropical Storm Boris has formed in the EastPac.

Yesterday, although invest 94E was organizing quite nicely, it lacked the sustained, deep convection required to earn it the 'depression' moniker.

But then, starting around 05Z last night, a *huge* convective flareup began in the SW quad and quickly blossomed into a potent band of very strong thunderstorms, wrapping around into the east semicircle and pulling into and over the LLC of the disturbance.

It didn't take too many hours of this deep sustained activity near the developing warm core to lower pressures just a tad further, and viola! Tropical Depression 2E was declared at 5am EST. True cyclogenesis likely occurred some hours earlier, as the tremendous release of latent heat of condensation was converted to mechanical wind energy that eventually worked its' way down to the surface boundary layer, and a tropical cyclone is born. One of nature's most amazing phenomena.

And that intensely strong convective burst has continued unabated since then, with extremely cold cloud tops of -80 C and colder. This has apparently dropped the surface pressure even more and is reflected in the wind field stiffening to sustained tropical storm force with even stronger gusts below the strongest 'supercell' thunderstorms, as you would expect.

The initial intensity forecast for TD 2E was for it to max out as a minimal TS, or 35 kts. But now, as the storm is rapidly gathering steam, the experts' diagnostic reasoning is calling for Boris to strengthen up to 50 kts., and sustain that intensity for at least 3 advisories.

But, as is usually the case with EastPac systems, the NHC advisories on newly developing systems tends to underestimate to forecasted peak intensity, especially for the first 4 or 5 advisories after a TD has formed. I've noticed this a lot. Intensity forecasting is very tricky business, especially with all the model inputs that are considered and all the vagaries of mother nature, sometimes throwing us a curve when the models were expecting the slider.

And I don't think it's out of the question for Boris to earn the status as the first hurricane of the northern hemisphere season, typhoons notwithstanding. Especially if it tracks more westerly than forecast and stays within the confines of the crucial 26 C isotherm and the impending northerly sheer isn't prohibitive. I think a hurricane more likely than not. We'll see.



Per the latest advisory discussion from the NHC:

Quote:



"AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO BASED ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS IS THAT BORIS COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 36 HRS AND REACH A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY."





Here's a link to the University of Hawaii's Weather Server, which provides unique imagery of many basins. I like to put it in 'Rock' mode and slow the animation speed just a tad. Enjoy!

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sata...amp;overlay=off

Anyways, this is really a no-big-deal storm in a no-big-deal basin (except when the cyclones impact Mexico or Central America), and it's just more 'interesting', than anything, to watch the cyclogenesis process take place and follow along to see what becomes of the systems.

The very best that Boris could do is bring some much welcomed and beneficial rains to the Islands as a decaying remnant circulation in about a week to 10 days time frame.

And keeping an eye on Invest 95E, too, as this system seems to have a pretty good shot at storm formation as well. A TCFA was recently issued, and it's convection is also on the increase. This system is closer to the Central Pacific, and would be in our 'neighborhood' even before ex-Boris would arrive. Oh, and did I mention? We need the rain !!


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Tropical Storm Boris Gathers Stream [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #80185 - Sat Jun 28 2008 11:22 AM

Well it looks like Boris has peaked, and should now start to slowly spin down with the shear impacting him from the NE. boris doesnt have much in the way of deep convective banding, rather just a 'blob' of convection. This could be disrupted by the shear and could lead to perhaps a quicker weakening than currently forecast. To the west of Boris we alo now have the 40mph Tropical Storm Cristina, who looks quite decent on the lates sat imagery. But with stable atmospheric conditions the long-term future is not good for this one either!

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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DarleneCane
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Loc: Miami Beach, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Boris Gathers Stream [Re: Rich B]
      #80187 - Sat Jun 28 2008 05:37 PM

Is it possible that the MJO is in the area of both of these storms?
They seemed to have spun up fast in unison as if something there suddenly changed after a quiet period.

The last time I looked it said the MJO was hard to define but it was moving in that general direction.

--------------------
Scratch my back with a lightning bolt
Thunder rolls like a bass drum note
The sound of the weather is Heaven's ragtime band


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CoconutCandy
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Reged: Fri
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
Tropical Storm Boris / MJO Thread Split [Re: DarleneCane]
      #80193 - Mon Jun 30 2008 03:27 AM

Quote:



Is it possible that the MJO is in the area of both of these storms (Boris and Christina)?

They seemed to have spun up fast in unison as if something there suddenly changed after a quiet period.





Thank you for your question and excellent observations. I'm sure many of you have been wondering about this.

I will *attempt* to explain a bit more about the MJO in a NEW post (thread) in the "Hurricane Ask/Tell" forum. Please look for that thread to be continued there.




Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jun 30 2008 05:57 PM)


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