MikeC
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17 July 2008 Update 4:30 PM EDT
Low near Jacksonville is now designated 96L, may have the best chance to form of all of the systems and definitely needs to be watched to see if it takes hold.
More to come later.
17 July 2008 Update 2:20 PM EDT
There is a low pressure that (96L) has moved from the Gulf to now off Jacksonville. It's probably the most interesting feature this afternoon. It may have to be watched for development over the next several days, but I don't expect too much from it.
Other than that, the Wave in East Caribbean (94L) is still a mess although recon is on its way to check it out now, and the other wave in the western Caribbean (now 95L) is too close to land to develop.
Bertha is still going strong, of course.
Overall despite these areas there really isn't anything all that threatening.
17 July 2008 Update 10 AM EDT
Not much new to report on today. The western Caribbean has a wave that might form before it gets to land, but it's not too likely. The wave in the Eastern Caribbean (94L) looks like it won't develop at all now.
After this, there really isn't much to watch, so it appears the tropics will be quiet again in the short term.
16 July 2008 Update
Bertha is moving generally east, and is away from land areas now, it will last a few more days until it starts transitioning.
The disturbance in the Gulf is most likely going to generate a great deal of rain over Florida, but the fact its so close to land and more of a mid-level system is going to negate most developmental chances. It is not expected to become tropical, but is still worth watching.
The wave east of the lesser Antilles (94L) is looking better this morning, and has the best shot of developing today. If it does not today it enters a much more hostile environment for development and probably will not. We're watching this one the closest today.
Original Update
It may be busy for July, but there is nothing really threatening for land at the moment. Although two of the systems may at some point.
This morning there is Tropical Storm Bertha, moving away from the island of Bermuda to the North Northeast. It is forecast to move generally east, but hook back south a bit before turning to the north, it is also forecast to become a Hurricane again. Bertha already has some interesting statistics.
The wave east of the Lesser Antilles (94L), is still struggling to form, but still has the potential to today or tomorrow. Some models (like the ) still continue to develop it, while others have written it off. The midly favorabie upper level conditions for it are fading, so it may not form.
Chances for development are actually less today than they were yesterday.
Either way those in the lesser Antilles will want to watch it.
Also this morning an area in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico is also worth watching, at least for today. It's not a proper investigation area and conditions there are not all that favorable for development, but the close proximity to land makes it worth it to be watched.
Beyond this, another wave east of 94L may be something to watch later in the week.
Registered users may want to click here to set their location -- by setting your location (lat/long) you will soon be able to get tailored current hurricane info and statistics relative to your marked position.
Event Related Links
Lesser Antilles Radar (Metofrance)
Southeast Radar Composite (loop)
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doug
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94L is still immature, obviously. It has not really developed a low level feeder system and blow off from the tstorm complex to its wnw has interferred with that to some extent. It seems to be trying to grab some from the ssw and some storms may be firing there. No question of where the LLC is however (approx 12 and 44 now)...still very much a baby.
The complex in the E GOM is falling SE along a frontal trough. Surface pressures are somewhat reduced in the area and of course SST's are at their usual July values (mid 80's). There is still the remenant of an upper trough to the east, so I don't think the upper levels will favor development.
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doug
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okihabu
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One question, what is that system due east of Bertha doing. Looks like its moving SW. Or Bertha and it going to merge?
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Chuck Good
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scottsvb
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94L is at 12.8N and 49W....racing W near 22mph. Due to its faster forward speed last night,its losing its W wind....MLC that everyone has been watching is now weakening also...This system could be dead by later this afternoon or become better organized if it slows down some (Although I still dont think highly of this 94L).
I agree with doug on the Gulf....though conditions could become better in the next 24-36hrs to let something get organized. I would think that this area would be the 1st concern due to its prox to Florida. I wouldnt be surprised if this area becomes a storm by later Thurs or Friday..but it won't have a chance to be more than that due to it moving onshore (whatever this does or doesn't become) before the weekend. 4/10 chance
Edited by scottsvb (Tue Jul 15 2008 04:04 PM)
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cieldumort
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A little surprised not to see Bertha being upgraded to hurricane at 11. She's there, but recon isn't. The most recently published print out of SAB is already ages old (15/1145 UTC 35.1N 63.0W T3.5/3.5) And CIMSS is still running automated on her using the curved band method, when it probably should already be interpreting by the eye method, in addition to misplacing her actual center, so those estimates (2.5 currently (2.5!!!)) can be completely tossed out. Why chose to rely on some high-res scatts that are also not up to date, and yet themselves can easily be used to argue for an advisory at or greater than 65 knots, to maintain her intensity at 60 knots, I'll never know... Betcha someone in there right now must be thinking hard whether or not to adjust this between now and 5PM, at least especially given Bertha's still relatively close proximity to Bermuda.
94L is looking better, to me. I'm still placing it a tiny bit southeast of where scott keeps placing the LLCC.. , but then again, here's yet another one where some recon wouldn't hurt. Current T numbers strongly argue for a hair-trigger upgrade to numbered TD, should just a tiny bit more organization.. particularly, organized convection, occur
Most recent T numbers for 94L from SAB:
15/1145 UTC 11.8N 48.3W T2.0/2.0 94L
15/0545 UTC 11.8N 45.1W T2.0/2.0 94L
14/2345 UTC 11.9N 44.2W T2.0/2.0 94L
14/1745 UTC 12.1N 43.1W T2.0/2.0 94L
14/1145 UTC 11.9N 42.0W T1.5/1.5 94L
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scottsvb
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Your just seeing the MLC Vortex that is desolving...but the LLC is difficult to locate the exact .1 ... I have it now near 12.7N and 49.5W as of 1230pm. Recon would be nice tomorrow if it holds its own....not sure though.I think the SAB is locked in the the MLC.
BTW Gulf ... A surface low is near Cedar Key...moving SSW slowly... A MLC (due to last nights T-Storms) is over the eastern gulf... If the LLC continues out over the eastern gulf and develops T-Storms near the center...I wouldnt be surprised if they send a recon in later tomorrow.
Edited by scottsvb (Tue Jul 15 2008 05:11 PM)
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doug
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Hi Scott: not too sure I agree with your assessments. 94L is pretty much where the previous post placed it. It does look better now than this a.m. and is clearly attempting to tap lower latitude moisture to support TStorm development, and that looks a little better established this P.M. Looks a little sheared, which may keep verticle development in check and contribute to its pace of development being slow or lacking...still think it is better than 50% that this moves from interesting to classified.
GOM: the discussion has this nailed...difluence and interaction with frontal troughs.. the surface low remains on shore over land. I think any point of development is potentially about 150 miles off the west coast and south of Panama City if any is going to occur at all...that seems to be where all the action is now.
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doug
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scottsvb
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94L is now along 13N and 50.5W as of 230pm......at least thats where I get my info at..  Its racing around 23mph @ 280dg so just slightly N of due west.
GOM weak low is aynolised near Cedar Key.... Doug you could be correct on south and west of Panama City..or could be off the coast of Clearwater tonight... just matters how far S this thing moves over the next 12-24hrs before the ridge off Florida and the Bahamas starts taking this back N towards the Panhandle.
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allan
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That area in the GOM is quite interesting and some models form a low pressure system with it. If it gets any more symetrical with some convection, it deserves to be at least tagged an invest. 94L looks to be gaining convection on the last few frames. For some odd reason this is surprisenly familiar to a storm that no models predicted to form but had formed last year. It became one of the most powerful storms in the Atlantic history! It happened almost a year ago.. I believe the is doing the right thing and keeping a medium potential for development. However it's got a nice wall of shear that it should run into soon. So I guess we'll see what happens in the long run. Tropical disturbances in Africa are looking good to, no doubt, a fairly active year.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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doug
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Well now, the situation on our door step is actually getting interesting...the radar suggests broad cyclonic rotation centered somewhere off shore of Pinellas/ Pasco...the visible might indicate a reflection of that but closer to southern Pinellas...hard to tell
The mid GOM is being influenced by an upper level weakness that seems to be rotating east then NE in the next 24 hours.. will this be a spark to surface development? Without a surface low the upper feature would generate some potential for severe TStorms in any event. If there is a developing surface feature (and BP has beeen relatively low for several days) then it is very close to the land mass at present.
interesting.
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doug
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cieldumort
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Eastern GOM is suddenly interesting. There's no doubt about it. Closed low pressure - at least in the low to mid levels - is now clearly establishing itself just offshore of west-central Florida, and there are some indications that something might slowly be trying to take at the surface, as pressures have been a little bit low in the area.
This is an area of low pressure that is developing along a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, along the second in a series of cold fronts which have dropped well south and pulled up somewhat stationary. At this time, the cyclonic flow of offshore showers and thunderstorms is already well evident. Should this continue, it may start to become relatively easy for surface pressures to continue to fall right there and/or the other possibility is for a pre-existing area of surface low pressure that has been onshore to get effectively, perhaps suddenly, yanked offshore.
Time-frame wise, this disturbance may not have enough time over the waters before being itself pulled back onshore, to become much more than a named storm, but as always, this is not a given.
Whether or not a tropical or subtropical cyclone actually develops, this system still has lots of potential to produce copious rains from numerous squally showers and storms. It is undoubtedly land-locked, and the Florida west coast and/or peninsula would be its quickest and easiest targets.
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Hugh
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Incredible... a tropical storm building in the GOM, and the has not said a word about it.
Grant, it's not there yet, but the weather channel has picked up on it, some models have picked up on it, and it's got much better convection than 94L has. And it's right in our back yard.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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cieldumort
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I'll tell ya. That eastern GOM feature is just itching to get a surface low brewing, perhaps as soon as sometime very late tonight or Wednesday.
Meanwhile, back in the central Atlantic with what is our Invest 94L, with a clear and present surface low, SAB continues to post an astounding series of T numbers for a system which hasn't been given an upgrade to TD.
Updated list:
15/2345 UTC 12.5N 51.7W T2.0/2.0 94L
15/1745 UTC 12.1N 50.1W T2.0/2.0 94L
15/1145 UTC 11.8N 48.3W T2.0/2.0 94L
15/0545 UTC 11.8N 45.1W T2.0/2.0 94L
14/2345 UTC 11.9N 44.2W T2.0/2.0 94L
14/1745 UTC 12.1N 43.1W T2.0/2.0 94L
14/1145 UTC 11.9N 42.0W T1.5/1.5 94L
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Freezey
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I totally agree with you about 94L&especially the low next to FL in the gulf. The storms from it have gotten more intense with storms in my area eversince it formed.
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Is it me or am I the Only Person who thinks the NHC Needs Some Better names to go along with our Present Day&time.....?
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shamrock
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You're suprised the hasn't mentioned anything? I'm in Ft Myers and local weather folks who stress hurricane preparidness and hold seminars have barely even mentioned the system right off our coast. BTW, 7.4 inches of rain since saturday and judging on the radar, still counting.
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metwannabe
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I can clearly see some circulation on Fl west/central radar. Thunder storm activity has blossomed this evening too. I would think this would be something would be very concerned about. Didn't Humberto last year go from nothing to hurricane in about 36 hours just about as close to land? I know enviromental conditions are not the same but with it this close, any reason why not addressing this yet? 
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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Freezey
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Oh darn.I wish i would have kept the article from today that said they might be headed to check out the disturbance in a recon flight,along with 94L. let me see if I can come across it again.
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Is it me or am I the Only Person who thinks the NHC Needs Some Better names to go along with our Present Day&time.....?
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shamrock
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I think this will be a system/storm which will create nothing more than a bunch of much needed rain for FL and eventually GA. But since I am in the fishing industry and talked to some boats offshore tonight, the winds are higher than are being reported at the sporadic bouys which are still working in the Gulf. Something is definately coming together, albeit might be too close to shore to become substantial.
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danielw
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Quote:
Didn't Humberto last year go from nothing to hurricane in about 36 hours just about as close to land?
Yes, Humberto pulled off a rapid spin up off the La and TX Coast last year.
This system has the opportunity to develop a bit more. The upper air currents are currently favorable for slight intensification. But with the trough nearby the window of opportunity is very narrow.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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watching with super resolution data from tampa radar (KTBW)... and like daniel posted... slight chance... but i think the trough and dry air that came over me to day... will keep it in check.. does look like the much needed rain for Florida is about to make a stop...
PS: sucks have the buoys are not working online... errr
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Jul 16 2008 02:51 AM)
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