scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Bob I still dont see any model change that you said in the 12Z runs. did but thats been off this year. Still a path towards the west then across the western tip of Cuba towards the western gulf seems likely and not florida,although they keys will probably gets some feeder bands.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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the new has Gustav heading toward the central LA coast as a cat 4.....one of the keys is how far west the storn tracks in the next 48 hours before heading northwest again.....the takes the storm to near Gitmo then due west for a day or so.....with the ridge bulding to the north, one would say a farther west track pushes the storm toward Texas...more east towards Mobile....it is all going to depend on how strong the ridges are
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Quote:
the new has Gustav heading toward the central LA coast as a cat 4.....one of the keys is how far west the storn tracks in the next 48 hours before heading northwest again.....the takes the storm to near Gitmo then due west for a day or so.....with the ridge bulding to the north, one would say a farther west track pushes the storm toward Texas...more east towards Mobile....it is all going to depend on how strong the ridges are
Can anyone explain why it has not turned more west yet?It is already off the earlier forecast track.I would think that if it does not make the turn tonight,all bets are off.Wonder if it is going to ride the outer ridge of the High.This could start to get a bit tricky later tonight and tomorrow.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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the ridge is not expected to build until later today..the track has Gustav continuing northwest to Cuba before turning west....it is not far off the track either, but the models due take it west in the next 12-24 hours
Looking at the latest sat imagery, Gustave is moving west northwest
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
Edited by pcola (Tue Aug 26 2008 07:04 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Gustav has the potential to eventually become a major hurricane, but currently only rhe is forecasting that sort of intensity. The 12Z HWRF has backed way off from its previous runs, apparently because of increased land interaction along the forecast path compared to previous runs. SHIPS has yet to forecast Gustav to reach major hurricane status and actually suggests weakening by around 4-5 days. None of the global models do much with Gustav and seem to be more interested in the other disturbances currently out there in the Atlantic.
Right now, it is mainly climatology (past history) and the that argue for Gustav becoming a major hurricane (assuming of course it does not get hung up over land). Both are compelling reasons to be concerned, but it should be noted that the forecast guidance as a whole is sending mixed signals about Gustav's ultimate fate.
Calling Gustav a "potential " is extremely premature. There have been literally hundreds of "potential s" in the last 50 years, but only one real deal.
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WeatherNut
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I believe the west turn has already begun over Haiti. If fact, following the center as best I can on vis sat...there is now almost a wsw direction. The center looks to be hugging the south coast right now and if this motion continues, it might be over water south of Haiti which does not bode well for Jamaica.
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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The 2PM models have tweaked slight and now have the storm closer to the southern Cuban coastline. Overall it looks like the high is digging further SE which might open the window to turn N sooner then forecast. However for now the models are all still in agreement up until Friday AM, then things start to spread out. As time moves on the real question is if the flow over FL now will help reinforce the high and keep Gus down south as it moves west. The seems to think so... and they are the experts so I tend to agree with them. Further down the road even the models can't figure out what will be happening out in the Gulf, thus everyone in the from west FL to east TX needs to pay attention. Should have much better picture of things come early Friday AM.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Quote:
I believe the west turn has already begun over Haiti. If fact, following the center as best I can on vis sat...there is now almost a wsw direction. The center looks to be hugging the south coast right now and if this motion continues, it might be over water south of Haiti which does not bode well for Jamaica.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
The 5:00 update is out and it is STILL moving NW.We will have to see what happens tonight,as far as the movement goes.She still looks very healthy and SHOULD be back over water tonight.I think most people thought she would have made that westerly movement by now.If she is still moving NW on the 11:00 update,I would imagine we will have a track change.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Gustav is going in a more wnw direction..it still says northwest because of the position over the last 4 hours. not what is actually happening now....and it is heading very close to forcast track
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Quote:
Gustav is going in a more wnw direction..it still says northwest because of the position over the last 4 hours. not what is actually happening now....and it is heading very close to forcast track
The info came from recon as far as what direction she is moving.When there closer to land recon will spend a lot of time in the system.So the wind speed,pressure and direction is pretty accurate.So as of 5pm she is still heading NW.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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pcola
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Gus is turning to the west though..the heading at 5 was 305 degrees, vs 315 degrees yesterday and 310 this am.....when its heading is 300 degrees or less, it will officially be wnw, and over the last hour that is evident..also, the last to position plots show movement .2 degrees north, .4 degrees west...........
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Hugh
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Quote:
Gus is turning to the west though..the heading at 5 was 305 degrees, vs 315 degrees yesterday and 310 this am.....when its heading is 300 degrees or less, it will officially be wnw, and over the last hour that is evident..also, the last to position plots show movement .2 degrees north, .4 degrees west...........
If I didn't know better, looking at the AVN satellite loop, I'd say Gustav's LLC was trying to reform southwest of Haiti, back in the Caribbean. It's a very odd looking storm right now. Convection does not appear to have weakened overall, but only over the land areas (not surprising)... so it will be very interesting to see what the overall impact is to the core.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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the latest still does not show an intense storm, but it does show Gus heading into the gulf, but farther east than the ....that should be available shortly
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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As long as the models continue to flip flop back and forth, there's no telling where it is going to go.
The is interesting, but too weak I believe.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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DonaldT
Registered User
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Looks like this could be "Katrina Two" in the making.
God, I hope not....
I don't think Louisiana could deal with that a second time.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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just because a hurricane gets in the gulf, it is not ..it happens every year...Katrina was a very sprcific set of circumstances
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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It appears that Haiti is currently winning the battle versus Gustav, but how long that will last remains to be seen. What's that big blowup of convection over Puerto Rico? And, is it just me, or is Gustav not really moving at all right now?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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hwood
Unregistered
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I have been lurking for a few years reading the info on this site and have always wondered something, which may be coming into play with Gustav. Gustav has been a fairly small and compact storm from it's birth, yet I believe it is starting to grow in size even though it is getting weaker over land. Was wondering if any mets could chime in and comment on whethere land interaction could aid in the growth of a storm's size at times. My theory is that the compact storm gets disrupted, thus causing the wind field to expand. Once back over water it may take a bit more time to consolidate again, but could make the storm grow in size?
Point I am trying to make is..if Haiti or Cuba does not kill the storm, it may actually make it bigger. A bigger storm could cause the models to change.
I may be way off track, but we are all trying to learn here.
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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The 11PM forecast has Gustav as a Cat 4 hurricane within 72 hours. As for the projected track, it now aims almost directly at New Orleans.
I sure hope that New Orleans has rebuilt and that this time the city and the state will begin immediate preparations for a major hurricane possibly making landfall on or near New Orleans.
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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Often when a storm like Gustav hits the mountains of Haiti and land mass they tend to bounce off "funny" and not always where you expect them to. There is something about the interaction with land and especially in an area like this where the land mass isn't big and suddenly it's in the water again. The path of a storm has to be smoothed out over time.
Radar from Cuba looks like it has started moving wnw however it's a hard radar to read and he is still dealing with the effect the sudden interaction with land had to his center.
Both in strength and size and we need to wait it out a few hours, six or so to see just what Gus is all about.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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