MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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We've adjusted a few things for more record traffic, hopefully the site will hold out ok this afternoon. We're scrambling for a better solution until all the new hardware arrives.
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Recon approaching Ike from NW. See attached along with a bunch of spag.
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
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Loc: SWFL
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Quote:
Andy,
Cell phones are charged and gas tank topped. Just won't pack suitcases and kitties til last minute. I really prefer not to leave them and I know shelters won't take them.
Many counties now DO have shelters that will allow you to bring pets. You should never leave pets when you evacuate.
Check with your local Red Cross and Office of Emergency Management for the municipality/county you live in.
After , many places started creating pet-designated shelters to save lives for this very reason.
Not all shelters are pet-designated, so check ahead NOW and plan to check in early if you leave.
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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sailor
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: cape cod
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JB agrees with you that this is already a Hurricane. If this just brushes the NC coast look out in New England for storm surges in Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay as they will be East of the center just like Bob and Gloria.
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cate
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Florida
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Quote:
Well Cate, I see you are not accepting private messages.
You say your mobile home, , Jeanne and ...and you seem to know what it's like going through all 3 of them, correct?
I lived on Jensen Beach in 2004 and and Jeanne's eyes went right over my home while clipped me as a Cat 1 from the S/W!
Where do you live in Florida, Cate?
I have received two or three pms from people on the board, but if you'd care to email me directly: cate58wood@aol.com.
I live in Hobe Sound (between Stuart and Jupiter) and, yes, we were in the eye for all 3. Not fun! My plans are up in the air right now, until we get a firmer fix on Ike, but my basic preparations are done. I have lots of friends in Jensen Beach, especially members of the VFW on Savannah Road. You guys "up there" had a lot to deal with during Fay. I take it you had already moved before Fay? I'm sure you watched the reports, tho. Yuck. I think it's my fault. My hubby and I were visiting Hamburg NY when the famous October snowstorm hit! And we lived there during 'the Blizzards...part of the reason we moved to FL and were greeted by Erin..
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Hanna is looking more like a tropical cyclone again, as it seems to be redevloping an inner core and some banding features. Max winds have come up a little bit today, but the pressure has been slowly rising this afternoon, so it is not immediately clear if it will become a minimal hurricane. Recon data suggests that there is still something of a disconnect between the surface center and the flight-level center, so there is further organization that needs to occur before there would be any substantial intensification. Time is running out for that to happen.
Recon data thus far seems to indicate that Ike's winds are in the 95-100 kt range, right at the cat 2/3 breakpoint. It looks like it is in the midst of an eyewall replacement cycle, so some further weakening is possible. Ike is currently in a sheared environment and will also be passing over relatively cool waters in the next 36-48 hours, so it is not clear how strong it will be as it approaches the Bahamas. Ike's ultimate path is still rather uncertain, but it does seem increasingly likely that it will get far enough west to impact parts of the U.S. and/or Cuba.
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cate
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Florida
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Quote:
We've adjusted a few things for more record traffic, hopefully the site will hold out ok this afternoon. We're scrambling for a better solution until all the new hardware arrives.
Mike, we live on SocSec, but this is my "go-to" site during hurricane season and just sent a $20 donation via Paypal (bernworth) and wish I could afford more. You all do a terrific and much appreciated job.
Thanks,
Cate
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Raymond
Weather Guru
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Loc: Germany
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Some additions for Ike:
I agree, the highest surface winds should be around 100 kt. In the second vortex message they speak again of an eyewall only open NW. So there seems to be some improvement, because, on the first message they didn´t speak of an eyewall existing ( that means there is less then 50 percent of an eyewall around the center). And it´s no eyewall replacement cycle, because there is simply nothing to replace the eyewall with no bands in the NW half of the huricane. The shear simply bites into the eye from the nothwest and makes it more or less open there.
So Ike fights really hard to hold his structure together.
Track: Now all models have shifted westward and forecast landfalls in different spots of the gulf side of Florida.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Looking at the models it seems that the will keep the 5:00 PM close to the 11:00AM. BAM series as usual its doing a dance. Most of the others see SW Florida and up the west coast of FL or close to it.
My question is how strong will it be and will it stay small?
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Too early to call yet IMO. 3 days yes, just have to pay attention and pray to the Seminole Indians !! 
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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native
Weather Guru
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Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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Good question about the size Lee. I was wondering the same thing. Though, I noticed in the 5pm disco that even given the disruption from the shear, et al. that his envelope as grown very slightly. Hurr. force from 35 mi. from center to 45 mi. and Trop.Storm. from I think 105 mi. to 120 mi.
Does anyone know if there's some sort of scientific equation that can forecast/estimate windfields? I'd be interested in knowing.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Just a note, there is a mandatory evacuation for visitors/non-residents for the Florida Keys starting tomorrow.
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Raymond
Weather Guru
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Loc: Germany
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Convection of Ike is much more symetrical again. The NW-half of the storm has regained some strength. I would say, we will see the eye clearing out again. These are signs for a slight reintensification!
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Native, I thought the hurricane winds were out 45 miles the other day and only 35 miles today. If Ike travels up next to the west Florida coast each mile is going to count.
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native
Weather Guru
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Loc: SE Florida
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That's a negative Lee.
Today's 5am and 11am public advisories were 35 hurricane and 105 tropical. BUT you are right, yesterday at 5pm they were 45.
If you go to 's site a click on Advisory Archive (on the left) you can go back to any advisory/discussion/map since the storm became "named" a follow it's evolution along.
Although, when he was "just" a tropical storm, at one point the Tropical Storm force winds extended out 175 mi. from center.
Kooky question: When we start getting 3 hourly updates...is it still only the 5 & 11 am/pm hours that they update the forecasted track and the 8 & 2 am/pm hours are just "intermediates" with no forecasted track updates?
I know they update speed, movement but do they do the tracks too?
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Loc:
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Usually not, but I believe that one of the Fay updates did have a change.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Yes 8 & 2 are position updates; they will also include new warnings if needed.
If Ike hits the US it will be the sixth storm in a row.
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Here is a loop of the basin I don't usually use but it paints a fairly good picture as far as what the overall flow, surrounding Ike, looks (feels) like without any underlying backup. Feel free to comment.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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DarleneCane
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Miami Beach, FL
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When a person looks at that satellite link that was posted or any of the ones that are similar to that it looks as if the flow is from the Bahamas up to the NW into Florida.
People are very skeptical of the SW movement Ike is supposed to have and are worried. I don't see it on the loop yet. Not a real SW movement or WSW but more a south of west movement.
It looks as if a person took a knob and turned it round half way to the right and everything turns a bit towards the west or wnw. Look at Hanna who seems to be moving more west. The flow from Ike goes down a bit and then turns up around 10 pm on a clock. That would be northwest.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
If you loop this you will see what I am talking about. If Ike does not start to move more south and he keeps moving fast as he is then would they pull the cone up a bit to the north?
Any information would be helpful. Thank you.
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Scratch my back with a lightning bolt
Thunder rolls like a bass drum note
The sound of the weather is Heaven's ragtime band
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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: NC
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OK let me ask a question about Hanna, did I read the recon info correctly, they just found a surface wind of 77.1 mph, would appear she is now a hurricane? Can anyone shed some light on this for me?
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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