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Models are starting to notice trof in the Gulf. Could become yet another TD-like system this weekend, even if not named. #txwx
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 333 (Nicholas) , Major: 349 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1403 (Michael) Major: 1403 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Bill a Classic Hurricane, Still Most likely to Stay Out to Sea
      #86319 - Mon Aug 17 2009 06:43 AM

9:15PM EDT Update 18 Aug 2009
Aircraft recon has found 125MPH sustained winds, and a low pressure. This makes Bill the first Major hurricane of 2009.

The National Hurricane Center put out a special update to report this and the 11PM advisory will likely reflect that.

6:10PM EDT Update 18 Aug 2009
Hurricane Bill is a strong Category 2 Hurricane and may become a Major Hurricane (Cat 3) later tonight. Aircraft recon recently found a pressure of 958mb, down some from earlier.

Thankfully, the forecast keeps it away from the Leeward Islands and the US Mainland, Bermuda and the Canadian Maratimes may have to deal with the storm later.



Bill is moving West-Northwest currently and the National Hurricane Center seems to have a solid bearing on the track. It will likely begin to slowly move more northward over time and curve away from the Southeast Coastline.

I've been looking for valid reasons to discount the forecast and really haven't found any. Admire the storm from afar and be glad it is not forecast to landfall like it is. We'll keep watch, but confidence it will stay away from the US Mainland is high.

The remnants of Ana are around the northern coast of Cuba, they are still worth watching to see if anything comes of it. There is a <30% chance that it will redevelop, or a new low will form out of the area.

8:15AM EDT Update 18 Aug 2009
Hurricane Bill may become a Category 3 hurricane later today, as it moves west northwest and eventually more northwest today.



Looking over projected conditions and water vapor imagery it appears that Bill will be drawn more poleward (elongated N/S) soon, and the models are tightly packed for a recurve scenario. There is plenty of model support for this. So thankfully, still this morning, Bill looks most likely to not affect any mainland areas (with the possible exception of the Canadian maratimes as a weaker system)

For Bermuda, things are less clear. Those in Bermuda will want to keep a close eye on Bill.

We'll keep watch in case this changes, but there is currently nothing to suggest that.

It looks like the remnants of Ana will enhance rainfall in Florida, Wednesday night into Thursday. A very low chance of any reformation <30%, exists.

Key West Florida Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Miami Florida Radar Loop (Latest Static)

4:45PM EDT Update 17 Aug 2009
Ana's last advisory was just issued at 5PM, it is now an open wave. It may bring rain to us in Florida Wednesday night or so, but reformation isn't all that likely.

Hurricane Bill has maintained 90mph winds, and is moving northwest. Other than Bermuda, it poses no threat to land.

The remains of Claudette has slowed in forward motion and is dumping a lot of rain along the Panhandle and Alabama.


Original Update
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall on the east end of Santa Rosa Island around 12:10AMCDT (1:10AM EDT). It never got stronger than a 50mph Tropical Storm and pressures never really dropped all that much for the storm. It will be a rain even for those in Alabama, Mississippi and western Tennessee.

Bill has become the first Hurricane of the 2009 season, yet is still looking like no threat to land with the possible exception of Bermuda. Those in Bermuda would be wise to keep track of Bill over the next several days It is expected to strengthen to a Major Hurricane. One model outlier is the UKMet which takes it further west (but still away from land, it traces the western edge of the cone)

. Ana may be an open wave, the National Hurricane Center is considering dropping advisories on it again, but they are waiting until a few visible satellite images are ready. It is currently moveing west northwest in the eastern Caribbean, south of Puerto Rico.

Northwest Florida Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
San Juan, Puerto Rico Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

The remnants will likely go over land of the Major Antilles and enter the straights of Florida, but as a remnant low assuming Hispaniola does not destroy it. At that point conditions won't be the best for any type of reformation, and it could just bring an enhancement to rain. If it does hold together it may be a little stronger, but the upper level low ahead of it probably will keep it in check.

East of Bill is another wave, but it's not very organized at the moment.

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes


Ana Event Related Links


float2latest.gif stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2009&storm=2 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Ana
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ana


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ana (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ana (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Ana

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ana
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ana -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Bill Event Related Links


float3latest.gif stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2009&storm=3 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Bill
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Bill


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Bill (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Bill (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Bill

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Bill
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Bill -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Claudette Event Related Links


float4latest.gif stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2009&storm=4 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Claudette
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Claudette


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Claudette (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Claudette (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Claudette

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Claudette
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Claudette -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane [Re: MikeC]
      #86321 - Mon Aug 17 2009 10:22 AM

Most models, with the notable exception of the UkMet model, are keeping Bill out to sea. Bill will become a major hurricane out in the open water, however.

Bill will probably have a visible eye by tonight.


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Ed in Va
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Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane [Re: MikeC]
      #86322 - Mon Aug 17 2009 11:22 AM

Just noticed some convection to the NW of Ana http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
Part of her circulation or a separate area?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!

Edited by Ed in Va (Mon Aug 17 2009 11:23 AM)


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mikethewreck
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Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane [Re: Ed in Va]
      #86323 - Mon Aug 17 2009 11:33 AM

Ed, I have seen Ana have almost a "reflection" north of her for several days. There always seems to have been a convective "burst" north of the main COC with her. It looks to me like that northern cluster of storms could very well drench Florida soon as the remnants of Ana race along. And I am not happy to be back again in a storm cone, even if it is Ana. Left Tallahassee yesterday just as the CDO of Claudette was approaching. Cool but ominous.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane [Re: Ed in Va]
      #86324 - Mon Aug 17 2009 11:34 AM

Ana may be one to watch later, it's in that odd situation where even the NHC admits it probably doesn't deserve to be classified, and it's really a 50/50 split if it survives or not. If it makes it past Hispaniola relatively intact it will be worth watching again.

The general mess in and around Ana will want to be watched if it gets into the Gulf, though. If that happens, there will likely be some shear, but not enough to keep it from developing, probably just keep it weak.

Hispaniola has torn up storms much stronger than Ana.


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JMII
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Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane [Re: Ed in Va]
      #86325 - Mon Aug 17 2009 11:37 AM

Ana is getting sheared apart, but she was barely a TS even at her strongest IMHO, she has been a mess from day 1. To her NW are two features: the one closest to FL looks to be a large upper level low (which explains the strong E winds 'round here) and the other is just a blob of rain with no organization. Its going to be rainy in the islands for the next few days as all this stuff tracks NW-ish.

Bill has a little more dry air to over come then he should really pick up some power and hopefully stay well offshore as predicted.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane [Re: JMII]
      #86327 - Mon Aug 17 2009 01:22 PM

Is that the first glimpse of an eye in Bill on the 1615 UTC IR AVN image?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg


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JoshuaK
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Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane [Re: JMII]
      #86328 - Mon Aug 17 2009 02:03 PM

I'm looking at various satellite loops of Ana, cyclonic turning still seems to be present, but if there is a surface circulation, it's weak at best, probably too weak to support TD status.

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Ed in Va
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Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane [Re: JoshuaK]
      #86329 - Mon Aug 17 2009 02:06 PM

Since the NHC and others (Dr. Masters) are waiting for the UKMET model to come into line...when is it updated again? Does someone have a link...why was it removed from the FSU site? http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Lee-Delray
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Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane [Re: Ed in Va]
      #86330 - Mon Aug 17 2009 02:12 PM

From the last UKMET, it seems that they are coming into the fold though the GFS moved a bit west.

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Hurikid
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Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #86331 - Mon Aug 17 2009 02:18 PM

The latest HWRF also moves more west...maybe something is changing?

edit: So does the GFDL.... i suspect that the Carolinas should still keep a close watch on Bill

Edited by Hurikid (Mon Aug 17 2009 02:22 PM)


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Ed in Va
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Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #86332 - Mon Aug 17 2009 02:19 PM

Hmm...more on models...looks like the 12 HRFW has move quite a bit west compared with the 06 one
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Lee-Delray
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Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane [Re: Ed in Va]
      #86333 - Mon Aug 17 2009 02:25 PM

I don't think a one cycle move is the start of a trend. The models do tend to shift from run to run and you are talking a week out. I am not a met, cannot explain the science, so I only say this from observation.

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LoisCane
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Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane [Re: Ed in Va]
      #86334 - Mon Aug 17 2009 02:28 PM

Ed correct me if I am wrong but a Major Hurricane that strong would tend to me more likely to develop a massive high aloft and continue in the same direction rather than be affected by a weak area and think we should wait to see how strong Bill becomes as... until he does, his own steering dynamics can't be totally figured in to the picture...

Also when you compare Ana, Bill and Claudette on the side bar... that's interesting.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.c...;hour=Animation

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HCW
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Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane [Re: LoisCane]
      #86335 - Mon Aug 17 2009 03:47 PM

What is going on with the remnants of Claudette ? Did she leave an egg behind and is it hatching due south of Mobile, AL ? Looks very suspect to me and if it's still there in the morning I will start getting concerned.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-rb.html

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane [Re: HCW]
      #86336 - Mon Aug 17 2009 04:08 PM

Definate Bear Watch there. but I don't think it will amount to much being that close to shore.

Rainfall is inudating the coastal counties right now and should continue to drift onshore through the rest of the day/ night.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Claudette Inland as Tropical Storm, Bill now a Hurricane [Re: LoisCane]
      #86337 - Mon Aug 17 2009 04:11 PM

Very large (cat 5 type) systems can affect the air around it, but the trough setup for Bill isn't going to allow it. I don't see any reason to doubt the NHC's cone (I've looked) for Bill.

Confidence in the NHC track is high,and they have been on track so far.

Ana remnants is the not so confident one. It'll probably bring a lot of rain to Florida, especially if it slows down around there like it may. (Wednesday or so) assuming some odd shenanigans doesn't happen with a new center of circulation. It slowing down/dumping rain is a real possibility.







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danielwAdministrator
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Ana Deux [Re: MikeC]
      #86338 - Mon Aug 17 2009 04:22 PM

I too am seeing a split storm both on satellite and radar.
San Juan storm velocity at 1500Z showed two separate vortices rotating in tandem. One where the COC is located south of Puerto Rico and another due north of the island and due north of the southern COC.

Large convective complex is now building along the NE Coast of Hispaniola. Dvorak enhancement is showing this to have higher cloud tops than any other area.
If the storm were to split I'm not sure which COC would maintain due to the close proximity to the mountains over the Greater Antilles. Northern vortice should keep a decent forward speed as it would be closer to the ridge and without mountain interference.
Southern vortice would be in a warmer SST environment though. We'll have to wait and see.

Interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands will probably have about 6-9 hours before the really bad weather arrives. Based on the current forward speed.

Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 17 2009 04:30 PM)


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103177
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Re: Ana Deux [Re: danielw]
      #86339 - Mon Aug 17 2009 05:04 PM

As of the 5 PM Advisory, it appears ANA is done.

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Random Chaos
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Re: Ana Deux [Re: danielw]
      #86340 - Mon Aug 17 2009 06:08 PM

A beautiful picture of Claudette taken shortly before landfall:

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2009228-0816/Claudette.A2009228.1830.500m.jpg


And in case no one saw this picture of a hurricane that got posted in our IRC channel:

http://i30.tinypic.com/2uj61r6.jpg


Looks like we might get an Aqua pass of Bill tomorrow early afternoon, but not positive. Terra looks like a wash tomorrow - no daytime overpass of Bill's region. Hopefully we get some stunning pictures!


And finally, here is a NASA topic about Bill's baby pictures: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2009/h2009_Bill.html

Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Aug 17 2009 06:14 PM)


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