Adam S
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What are the chances that Invest 90E develops and hits south Florida?
(This post and most of the posts below it are better suited to this Forum. The Other Storm Basins Forum is the place for discussions on systems that are not in the Atlantic Basin. While I realize that some models do intensify this system and move it into the Atlantic Basin, the odds of achieving that reality are currently quite small since no tropical cyclone exists at the moment.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat May 29 2010 04:29 AM)
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Doombot!
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Almost zero.
Assuming by "developing", you mean anything to be concerned about (cat 1+), I'd say 1:1,000.
Edited by Doombot! (Thu May 27 2010 03:36 PM)
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CoconutCandy
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(Original Post Title: "Disturbance Expected to Become TS 'Agatha' ")
The 2010 Hurricane Season appears about to begin in earnest in the Eastern Pacific, with marked signs of increasing organization within a broad area of disturbed weather that the has been monitoring for several days. This is quite normal for this basin for this time of year, as climatology clearly dictates and is the reason for this basin's hurricane season beginning 2 weeks earlier, on May 15th.
The has recently reissued a ATCF (tropical cyclone formation alert) just as the has increased the probability of cyclogenesis to 70% and model runs are now being initiated. The system has become quasi-stationary, with models diverging dramatically with regard to track, though SHIPS intensity does have it nearing Hurricane strength by day 5, assuming it stays in the EastPac basin, thus permitting gradual strengthening and not coming ashore within this time frame.
The greatest danger at this time appears to be strong onshore winds depositing copious rainfall over El Salvador and areas westward along the Mexican coastline, and along with the torrential rains the strong possibility of flash flooding and mudslides for those affected areas.
Were the disturbance to intensify to Tropical Storm as expected, it would be christened 'Agatha', the first named tropical cyclone of the Northern Hemisphere 2010 Hurricane Season. (Africa to Dateline)
Finally, it's worth mentioning that at least 3 of the models (LBAR, HWRF and BAMD) has this system tracking across Mexico and into the southern GOM with the LBAR even taking the circulation directly across southern Florida. Even the is indicating a tendency towards the SWern Caribbean. But these scenarios are a long shot at best, as a storms' transit across Mexico usually spells it's demise, and upper level wind conditions in the southern gulf may not be favorable, just yet, for such a regeneration to occur. Although unlikely, it certainly bears watching, as early season systems like this have been known to 'jump basins' in recent history.
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Edited by CoconutCandy (Sat May 29 2010 07:26 PM)
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danielw
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I almost moved the post to the Other Storm Basins Forum.
But with that many models forecasting NE movement into the GOM or W Caribbean it needs to be posted here.
Current Forecasts indicate a 60% probability of development and Forecasts indicate a 61% probablity.
Edited by danielw (Fri May 28 2010 05:54 PM)
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Doombot!
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Now up to 70%. I ammend my prior odds from 1:1,100 to 1:250. Overland crossings are bad for organization, then to get something "strong" preseason is rare, then to hit a specific target is tough.
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CoconutCandy
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The Invest 90E that the has been monitoring for several days has organized and strengthened sufficiently to become the first named tropical storm of the Northern Hemisphere 2010 Hurricane Season.
Overnight convection was sufficiently deep and sustained enough near the rapidly developing circulation center embedded within a broad 1005 mb area of low pressure and formed a small Central Dense Overcast (CDO) feature, evident on animated satellite imagery and usually the harbinger of a deepening phase in storm dynamics. Also clearly in evidence in more recent daylight imagery is a nicely established outflow, especially in the NW semicircle, where the cirrus outflow debris is assuming the classic 'feathery pattern', another feature I've noticed that frequently coincides with an organizing and deepening trend, from depression to storm or storm to hurricane, for example.
And very deep, bursting and continuously cycling convection continues unabated at this hour, despite midday being the so-called 'diurnal convective minimum', when thunderstorm activity generally subsides to some extent. Should current convective trends continue, there is a chance 'Agatha' could strengthen substantially more than is currently forecast. In fact, SHIPS Rapid Intensification Model now suggests at least a 40% probability of 'explosive intensification' (rapid deepening) of 'Agatha' over the next 24 hours.
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SINCE AGATHA WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF AT LEAST 30C AND WITHIN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ... ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS REASONABLE. THE SHIPS MODEL IS INDICATING A NEAR 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ... AND THIS POSSIBILITY WILL BE CLOSELY ASSESSED FOR THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE IF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OFTENTIMES WEAKENS.
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Also of significant interest is the fact that this marks the 10th year of the last 11 (missing only in 2009) when a Pacific tropical cyclone formed in the month of May, which is the most (nearly) consecutive years in which storms formed in the month of May, perhaps a reflection of the multi-decadal increase in tropical cyclone activity we've seen, beginning in 1995.
The last storm to form in the EastPac during the month of May was Tropical Storm 'Alma' in 2008, which holds the all time record for developing further east than any other Pacific tropical cyclone on record. (Also, 'Alma' made landfall further east than any other Pacific tropical cyclone, and remains the ONLY storm to do so on the *Pacific Coast* of Nicaragua.)
Tropical Storm ALMA in 2008
It should be remembered, too, that it was partially the remnants (remnant mid-level circulation?) of the dissipated 'Alma' (name since retired) that crossed into the Atlantic basin that gave rise to an early season Tropical Storm 'Authur' in 2008, just a scant 2 years ago. 'Alma' is the most recent former Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone to in any sense "cross into" the Atlantic basin.
Tropical Storm ARTHUR also in 2008
Quite interestingly, despite the official forecast to dissipate 'Agatha' inland over Mexico in 3 days or so, the model guidance remains quite bullish and increasingly in consensus in bringing the remnant, perhaps mid-level, circulation into the Atlantic basin on a trajectory towards southern Florida or even into the GOM. Let's hope there is NO early season storm in the Gulf, which would greatly exacerbate the already terrible situation with the BP oil spill.
Note in the above graphic that several of the models are the 'outsiders', notably the (blue), which meanders the system in a tight cyclonic loop just offshore, without making any landfall at all for the duration of it's model run, and the (red), which likewise has it remaining largely offshore on a lethargic northward course, bringing it to landfall very late in the forecast period.
Finally (for now) it's worth noting that on this day in 2001, Major Hurricane Adolph maxed out as a strong Category 4 Hurricane with 145 mph sustained winds, making it the strongest May Eastern Pacific hurricane on record.
Edited by CoconutCandy (Sat May 29 2010 07:54 PM)
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Storm Hunter
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This storm has the potential to become the first storm of the atlantic too! All eyes need to pay attention to this system... and see if it makes it across to the carib or GOM.
PS: Good to see stewart on duty this morning at and to kick off the Pacific Hurricane season... Great dicussions this morning written by him
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat May 29 2010 03:51 PM)
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CoconutCandy
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As you may know, Tropical Storm 'Agatha' came ashore near the Guatamala/Mexico border and quickly dissipated as a tropical cyclone, but not before taking a dozen lives, due to flash flooding and mudslides.
The remnant circulation of ex-Agatha, in the form of a surface trough, is now draped across Central America and extending NE-ward towards Cuba.
The area of greatest 'positive vorticity' within this surface trough has, within the past few hours, seemingly exited it's overland trek and now appears to be located in the Gulf of Honduras. Recent IR satellite imagery is revealing a large blowup of convection in this area, and should this intense convection continue throughout the day, it wouldn't surprise me if the TPC and begins to make note of it in their Tropical Weather Outlook and/or Discussions.
The latest model runs I've seen while 'Agatha' was still a Depression fell into 2 general camps, with one camp tracking it across southern Florida and the other, more grim possibility, taking it up into the Notherhern GOM, certainly not a scenerio that anyone would like to see, considering the ecocrisis currently unfolding there.
Let's hope and pray that, should this system 'regenerate', it gives South Florida a nice drink as stays well away from the Northern Gulf.
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