Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
I keep staring at that loop. I still don't see a vortex. I see quite a bit of disorganized convection, but nothing else.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
|
|
Quote:
I keep staring at that loop. I still don't see a vortex. I see quite a bit of disorganized convection, but nothing else.
Take the visible loop from the floater. Then look at only the first 9 images. Rock them back and forth and I THINK I see a bit of a spin directly southwest of Jamaica and appearing to move wsw away from it. Is that the western one?
--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
|
hogrunr
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
|
|
Take a look at the RGB below before the day/night transition...To me, the RGB is always the easiest image to see the LLC on.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html
|
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
|
|
Quote:
Take a look at the RGB below before the day/night transition...To me, the RGB is always the easiest image to see the LLC on.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html
Yeah....when I said the 'first 9 images' above, those are all the images before the night line comes across. It is there. Just not much around it yet.
--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
Take a look at the RGB below before the day/night transition...To me, the RGB is always the easiest image to see the LLC on.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html
Yeah....when I said the 'first 9 images' above, those are all the images before the night line comes across. It is there. Just not much around it yet.
Well, I *now* see a spin... SOUTHEAST of Jamaica... just offshore. Southwest, I see clear skies, with absolutely zero rotation. I see the exact same feature no matter which satellite I look at 
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
The interesting thing about the area southeast of Jamaica, is that it may wind up taking over. It could even be considered a new possible invest area (It's not really even the same wave), but I'm not sure how that would be handled -- probably just continuing as 93
If this area kicks up then it changes things as far as the track discussed in the article.
Mostly it means the model runs this morning are all but worthless... again.
Also the recon flight for today has been canceled.
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
If it's not even the same wave then I'm totally lost, because right now, that's all that is left of whatever 93L once was. Then again, I'm not seeing the conducive condtions that the says are present, either - I see a lot of shear.
This might still develop, but I'm thinking the probability is closer to 5% than the 40% the places on it.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
jasonch
Unregistered
|
|
I realy don't see what the big deal is. I know the models are saying something is going to develope but i just don't see it. To much shear. Alot of times when there is talk of something that will develope and it constantly has problems doing so most cases it don't. Even it it does develope it will probably be just before it crosses the yucatan and then all bets are off because it will be on land. I give a 0% chance of develping. I certainly don't see a cat 2 hurricane.
|
stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 73
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
|
|
This morning it looks less organized and that the thunderstorm activity is more scattered than it has been.
The rotation I saw yesterday around 17/79.5 appears to be gone although it's kind of early to tell, but there certainly isn't any weather there.
There are reasons storms seldom form in the central Carribean and there are reasons storms don't form often in June. I guess we're seeing why.
Several models had this thing taking off, but the had it doing zilch. It looks like the was right.
|
hogrunr
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
|
|
Quote:
The interesting thing about the area southeast of Jamaica, is that it may wind up taking over. It could even be considered a new possible invest area (It's not really even the same wave), but I'm not sure how that would be handled -- probably just continuing as 93
If this area kicks up then it changes things as far as the track discussed in the article.
Mostly it means the model runs this morning are all but worthless... again.
Also the recon flight for today has been canceled.
Attached a picture showing the area of spin that is present today. It is embedded in the largest areas of convection for now. There is some shear present, but according to CIMSS , it's only under about 10 knots, which is pretty low. There is higher shear to the north, but as the keeps saying, it is forecast to improve.
I think this wave, or multiple waves, however you want to look at it, has been a nightmare for people looking at it, let alone the models. All of the models are still initializing much to far south and west for the are of spin that is present this morning.
Also, a drastic increase in vorticity is present where the new area of spin is located.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...zoom=&time=
Edited by hogrunr (Thu Jun 24 2010 02:09 PM)
|
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
|
|
This morning I had to leave the floater and just zoom in from the caribbean sector to that area east of Jamaica. Lots of chaos going on in there and tough to see any patterns. I see the spin south east of Jamaica, but it doesn't seem to be persisting in the later frames. Impressive convection due south of Haiti and something could certainly be cooking beneath that. Overall, though I have to agree with those here that are not impressed with this system overall. It is really having a tough time getting going although it isn't going away any time soon.
--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
|
WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
|
|
There is definitely spin at 16n76w on the CIMSS visible satellite
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...0000&loop=0
The thing that has been missing all along is vorticity. Everything else seems to be in place. If it can get some spin and convection then I think it should develop. The problem is the system cant get vertically stacked
--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
The only low level spin is a very broad spin that seems centered very near the coast of Houduras/ Nicuragua. Otherwise it seems to be an open but active wave with an excellent signature.
--------------------
doug
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
There is nothing @ the surface or close to the surface east of Jamaica.. 93L is SW of there moving slowly W with no convection around the LLC with a trough extending south of there. Everything E and SE of Jamaica is in the midlevels.
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
Quote:
The only low level spin is a very broad spin that seems centered very near the coast of Houduras/ Nicuragua. Otherwise it seems to be an open but active wave with an excellent signature.
agree... i attached a image to what i see... I'm dropping my chances on 93L... due to it being close to the coast... and i still see some shear to the NW of surface area.... but the overall pattern of the surface area i have been tracking is much easier to define then the last two days... I am starting to think we will get a second area of this wave to the north or maybe into the GOM.. some piece of energy will spit off this wave and form in NW Carib.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html
PS: i'm still puzzled by the lastest run of the 12Z ( 12z run )... is still throwing the system up the the central GOM...
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Jun 24 2010 05:45 PM)
|
Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 99
|
|
The surface spin off the coast of Honduras/Nicaragua is definitely a dominant feature so it will take a while for this system to organize. I'm not too excited about its future at this point.
|
stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 73
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
|
|
Scott, that's how I saw it yesterday, and little has changed today except there's more weather around some kind of mid level circulation at about 16/77.
Nothing is getting better organized from what I have seen for three days now.
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
As of Thursday afternoon, while 93L has had several transient circulations in the past (mostly in the mid-levels) it is becoming clear that a much more prominent surface low is taking hold roughly around 16N and 82W, and conditions have finally once again become increasingly favorable for further development, provided the system remains over enough water, for enough time.
NRL has raised a for 93L.
--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)
|
stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 73
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
|
|
Thunderstorms geting closer and closer to the "center" of the broad circulation near 16/82. There is high pressure aloft here and things might pop tomorrow.
We'll have to see is the TS substain themselves. Pressure is shown as 1008mb.
|
WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
|
|
Pressures at buoy 42057 have fallen 2.2 mb over the last 3 hours (and still falling) so something is going on in that vicinity
Edited by WeatherNut (Thu Jun 24 2010 09:27 PM)
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
