What's Next? - Invest 95L - FLHurricane.com

Excerpts from the Morning AFDs at various NWS Offices around the GOM.

Slidell,La AFD LIX
FARTHER SOUTH...ANOTHER MORE DIFFUSE SURFACE
BOUNDARY/TROUGH IS EVIDENT JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. AT 4 AM...A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS ANALYZED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR SHOWS DRIER AIR WORKING
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST AREA AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPEARS TO HAVE A BIT OF A KINK/NOTCH THAT
COULD SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID LEVEL LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS THE NEXT
3 TO 6 HOURS AND ANALYZE THE 12Z RAOB/UPPER AIR DATA AND FUTURE
SATELLITE DATA TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENT
THAT THE MODELS KEEP ADVERTISING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF.

Key West,FL AFD KEY
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE BAHAMAS SOUTH OF 24N AND WEST OF 74W SEEMS TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN HAITI AND THE
EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED AMONG
ENHANCED...DEEP LAYERED...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TODAY...BEFORE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

Tampa Bay,FL AFD TBW
AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY
CONVECTION AS WELL AS POSSIBLY LEAD TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND SO WILL CONTINUE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH POPS.

THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACTUALLY MAKE
IT AND WHETHER OR NOT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA AND MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 00Z NAM
DOES DEVELOP A WEAK LOW OFFSHORE OF TAMPA LATE FRIDAY AND PUSHES IT
WESTWARD. IN THIS SCENARIO DRY ENE FLOW MAKES IT INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE AND PRECIP IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
COMPARED TO THE 18Z RUN...THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT A FASTER PACE
AND IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER. THE 00Z ALSO DEVELOPS A LOW OFFSHORE OF
TAMPA ON FRIDAY BUT MOVES IT MUCH SLOWER TO THE WEST...RESULTING IN
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS. HOWEVER...A CLOSER LOOK AT THE 00Z
PRECIPITATION FIELDS SHOWS THAT A DISPROPORTIONATE AMOUNT OF THE
PRECIP FORECAST BY THE WITH THIS LOW IS NON-CONVECTIVE
PRECIP...WHICH SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND MAKES ITS SOLUTION
SUSPECT. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z RGEM HAS A 1009 MB LOW WELL SOUTH OF
APALACHICOLA BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING
OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. THE PREVIOUS 12Z HAD ONLY A VERY WEAK
LOW DEVELOPING WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OFFSHORE OR
JUST BARELY TOUCHING THE BEACHES ON SATURDAY. THE 21Z SREF HAD
SEVERAL MEMBERS DEVELOPING LOWS OF VARIOUS INTENSITIES PUSHING
WESTWARD AS WELL.

Tallahassee, FL AFD TAE
SO...WHAT TO BELIEVE? THERE SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY STRONG MODEL SUPPORT
OF AT LEAST A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING LATE TODAY AND PUSHING WESTWARD
INTO THE GULF. MORE IMPORTANTLY...LATE NIGHT RADAR SEEMS TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF SMALL SCALE MESO-LOW OVER DIXIE COUNTY DRIFTING VERY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH EVEN A FEW BANDING FEATURES OCCASIONALLY
PRESENT. AS A RESULT...AM BUYING INTO THE IDEA OF A WEAK LOW MOVING
WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT AM NOT CURRENTLY
BUYING THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUE MENTIONED ABOVE.

Mobile,AL AFD MOB
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST BY SATURDAY AND JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG IT IN SOME FORM OR THE OTHER.
GFS STRONGER WITH THE LOW MOVING IT VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND
ESSENTIALLY STALLS IT OVER THE MOBILE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WHERAS
THE TAKES IT WESTWARD MORE QUICKLY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW...PASSING IT TO THE WEST BY
SUNDAY. WE WENT CLOSER TO THE FASTER AND WEAKER GIVEN
SOMEWHAT BETTER PERFORMANCE ON LOCATING LARGER SCALE FEATURES OVER
THE PAST WEEK...BRINGING IN A LITTLE DRIER AIR TOWARDS SUNDAY FROM
THE NORTHEAST AND TAKING THE LOW MORE QUICKLY TO THE WEST THROUGH
SUNDAY.

Jackson,MS AFD JAN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MANY MANY QUESTIONS IN THE
LONG TERM AND ALL REALLY REVOLVE AROUND THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE
GULF FORECASTED BY SOME MODELS. AT 12Z SUNDAY...MOST ALL MODELS
AGREE IN A 1010-1012MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI COAST/NEAR NEW ORLEANS. THIS IS ABOUT THE ONLY THING
THEY AGREE ON AND FROM THIS POINT...SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE NAM
TRACKS THIS FEATURE TO THE WEST. THE ...WHICH HAS BEEN THE ONE TO
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOP THIS FEATURE...MEANDERS THIS FEATURE IN THE
SAME LOCATION UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE IT LOSES ITS UPPER
SUPPORT AND BEGINS TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH. IT THEN MOVES NORTH ACROSS
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND LINGERS. THE NEVER REALLY DEVELOPS
THE FEATURE MUCH INTO A LOW...BUT RATHER A WEAK LOW/OPEN WAVE TYPE
FEATURE AND TRACKS IT PROGRESSIVELY WEST. WHILE I CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION
GIVEN THAT WATER TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM AND DISTURBANCES CAN
ORIGINATE OFF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...FEEL THAT THE HAS BEEN
A LITTLE MORE ON TARGET WITH REGARD TO CURRENT TROPICAL LIKE SYSTEMS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE IN THIS DIRECTION THROUGH THE LONG
TERM BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

...CLOSED UPPER LOW MIGRATING WESTWARD ACROSS THE N. GULF...

FINAL PREFERENCE: 00Z/12Z OR 00Z NAM/GFS WITH A DAMPENED
SOLN

THIS MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEMS TO EMERGE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
FLORIDA WITH SOME MODELS DEPICTING THIS ENERGY DRIFTING WESTWARD
IN TIME. BY SAT. EVENING...THE 00Z/18Z/12Z VERSIONS OF THE NAM
FORECAST THE WEAK CLOSED LOW TO BE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST.
THE DETAILS BECOME A LITTLE BIT VAGUE BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE FORECASTS A SOLN WHICH FEATURES THE
UPPER/SFC LOW NEAR NEW ORLEANS BY SUN. EVENING/NIGHT.

THE HAS ALSO SHOWN DECENT CONTINUITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT RUN PLACES IT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FL PANHANDLE AT 04/00Z WITH THE SFC LOW BEING BEST DEFINED WITH
THE 00Z/12Z MODEL RUNS. THIS GENERAL SOLN IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
THE 00Z NAM...BUT IT SEEMS FEW OTHER GLOBAL MODELS FAVOR SUCH AN
EVOLUTION.

TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE 00Z/12Z SUGGESTS AN ELONGATED UPPER
TROF OVER A SIMILAR REGION WHICH THE 00Z NAM/GFS DEPICT A STRONG
CLOSED LOW CENTER. MEANWHILE...AMONG OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE...THE
00Z UKMET AND 12Z /UKMET FORECAST AN H5/SFC LOW AS WELL...BUT
FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE WESTERN PENINSULA OF FL. WITH RESPECT TO THE
ENSEMBLES...THERE IS MEAGER SUPPORT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CYCLONES
ACROSS THE GULF AS ONLY A COUPLE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT THE
FEATURE. THEREFORE...THE POSITION SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND 12Z WILL BE PREFERRED...EXCEPT THE
MODELS ARE MUCH TOO DEEP WITH THE SYSTEM.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Jul 02 2010 02:15 PM)

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