Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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UPDATE - 11AM EDT, Saturday, September 4, 2010
...TROPICAL STORM EARL MADE LANDFALL NEAR WESTERN HEAD NOVA SCOTIA
AROUND 10 AM EDT...1400 UTC. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE PROVINCE...
UPDATE - 10PM, Friday, September 3, 2010
At 04/0130Z, 9:30PM EDT, Earl was located at about 39.6N 70.1W and he was moving rapidly to the northeast. Earl should pass offshore at least 80 miles southeast of Chatham, Massachusetts, around 1AM EDT on Saturday, as a strong Tropical Storm heading toward eastern Nova Scotia.
Original Blog
Although the tropical Atlantic has become quite active in the past couple of weeks, a weakness between the Azores/Bermuda High and a Continental High over the Northeast has kept Tropical Storm Colin and Hurricane Danielle well out to sea and away from the east coast. The pattern is slowly changing and Hurricane Earl, while staying primarily at sea, is going to sideswipe the coast from North Carolina to Massachusetts before he moves inland over Nova Scotia.
At 5PM, Hurricane Earl was centered about 235 miles east of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas. Earl was moving to the northwest at 17mph with sustained winds of 135mph and gusts to about 165mph - a Category IV major Hurricane. Hurricane Earl will continue to move northwest and then north as it comes under the influence of a trough of low pressure moving through the midwest that will eventually shove the storm off to the north northeast at an increased rate of forward speed while wind shear and cooler waters will slowly weaken the hurricane as it moves north northeast just offshore. A convergence zone could develop between the trough and the Hurricane and add some strong thunderstorms into the mix for western New England. Hurricane Earl should pass about 350 miles to the east northeast of east central Florida around midnight tonight. Earl should pass close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina in the early hours just after midnight on Friday morning and head north northeast - passing about 160 miles southeast of Springfield, Massachusetts, and 25 miles southeast of Chatham, Massachusetts, around midnight Friday night with tropical storm force winds extending about 125 miles to the northwest of the center at that time. Just a small shift to the west in the forecast track could bring hurricane and tropical storm conditions to a greater portion of the coast from North Carolina to southern New England. The following Warning and Watches are currently in effect:
Updated at 04/21Z, 5PM EDT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM POINT TUPPER AROUND CAPE BRETON TO BRULE
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA TO LOWER
DARNLEY
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BURGEO WESTWARD TO BOAT HARBOUR
Folks along the east coast from North Carolina to Nova Scotia need to closely monitor the progress and track adjustments of Hurricane Earl and be prepared to follow the instructions of local Emergency Management personnel.
Tropical Storm Fiona was located 145 miles northeast of St. Thomas at 5PM moving to the northwest at 20mph with sustained winds of 60mph. Fiona should begin to move more to the north and remain at sea and slowly weaken, dissipating in four or five days just south of Bermuda.
UPDATE: Fiona has weakened to a remnant low pressure system that will dissipate over the weekend. Earlier this evening cancelled the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda.
Tropical Storm Gaston is a new tropical cyclone located over 1,600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles moving west at 15mph with sustained winds of 40mph gusting to 50mph. Gaston should maintain more of a southerly track as a strong high pressure ridge re-establishes itself over the Atlantic basin. Gaston should move west to west northwest and increase to hurricane strength by Sunday. Probably a system that will need to be monitored closely next week.
ADDED: Gaston was downgraded to a tropical low at 02/5PM EDT, however, regeneration is still possible this weekend.
Yet another strong tropical wave exited the west African coast today (Wednesday) and it should intensify to a Tropical Depression by Friday or Saturday. The next name on the list is Hermine.
ADDED: System has been designated as Invest 99L and early model runs move the system off to the northwest.
Busy, busy! If a storm is heading your way - are you ready?
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Sep 04 2010 09:35 PM)
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