MikeC
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8PM EDT 29 July 2011 Update
Chances for additional development of Invest 91L have increased to 50%. For additional info on this system see the Storm Forum .
ED
5PM EDT 29 July 2011 Update
Some of the rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Don is reaching Brownsville now, but actual center landfall north between Brownsville and Corpus Christi will occur late tonight.
The wave in the Central Atlantic hasn't changed much during the day, and still has a 30% chance for development over the next two days. The northern Leeward islands will want to continue to watch this system. What do you think the wave in the Atlantic will do? Let us know in the forecast lounge
Original Update
Tropical Storm Don's last day over water is today, and it is expected to make landfall very late tonight into tomorrow morning, probably in Kenedy county, TX, or just north of Brownsville. If the system sees any more movement to the west than expected, points in extreme Northeast Mexico could also go under a Tropical Storm Warning.
The system still is being sheared, and still has to deal with dry air, which will likely keep it from strengthening too much. Some strengthening is expected before landfall, but the limiting factors will keep it from going too high. Although there is a chance that convective bursts may occur as it approaches land so rain could be very heavy in spots.
The rain is being sheared mostly to the south of the system, points north of the center of landfall will not receive as much rain as points south.
Don will be monitored throughout the day, Those in the warning area should know that the hurricane center fully updates Every 6 hours, which includes (Times CST# 5AM, 10AM, 5PM, 10PM, and also issues intermediate advisories when there are watches/warnings up at 7AM, 1PM, 7PM, and 1AM. If a very rapid change were to occur they will issue a special statement #Usually after recon findings#, these are rare, but could happen anytime. So you can schedule checks around those times.
The wave in the Central Atlantic is now being tracked as 91L, it is expected to move into or close to the Caribbean, and has a 30% chance for development. If this were to become a named system before August 1st, it would put us at 5 named storms by the first of August, which has only been topped by the 2005 season recently. For comparison, 2004 the first named storm #Alex# did not form until August 1st.
Those in the Eastern Caribbean islands will want to watch the wave closely as it likely will develop before nearing the islands. This system has very few negative factors and will likely become this year's first hurricane. If so it would be named Emily. There is more speculation on this system in the forecast lounge.
Level 3 Radar/ Don Approach South Texas #HCW# flhurricane recording
Long Term Floater Recordings of Don:
Visible Floater Recording of Don
Water Vapor Floater Recording of Don
Rainbow IR Floater Recording of Don
Don Approach Related Links:
Color Sat of Gulf
Emergency Management:
Texas Division of Emergency Management
Texas Emergency Management Reports
AEP Texas Power Outage Map
Local Media/Television
Corpus Christi:
KRIS TV 6 #NBC Corpus Christi#
KZTV 10 #CBS Corpus Christi#
KIII TV 3 #ABC Corpus Christi)
Brownsville:
KGBT 4 News Brownsville
KRGV Newschannel 5 Brownsville
KURV 710 News/Talk Brownsville
Houston:
KHOU the CBS affiliate in houston, is former Hurricane Center director Neil Frank's station, and likely will begin streaming once warnings are up in the area
Channel 2 NBC affiliate in Houston
ABC 13 in Houston
Houson Fox 26
Radio
KTRH Rado News/Talk station in Houston with streaming
Other Houston area radio
Newspapers
Corpus Christi Caller-Times
Houston Chronicle
Brownsville Herald
The Monitor
Valley Morning Star
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Jul 29 2011 08:21 PM)
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MikeC
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Added Level 3 Radar/ Don Approach South Texas (HCW) flhurricane recording
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MikeC
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Based on the current movement looks like landfall will be around 9PM CDT. I'm recording the radar, but no webcams as it will be too dark (and not really enough to record).
91L is dealing with two vortices in the same general area, which has kept it from really forming today, so 8PM should continue the same chances or slightly higher. Once this is worked out there will likely be an increase in development chances. The leewards need to watch this closely, and probably Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands later. The Lounge on 91L has
more information on speculation beyond it.
If anyone is near Brownsville or Corpus, let us know here how conditions are in your area.
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MikeC
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Unfortunately the recorded radar images stopped around 7:30, but amazingly most of the rain "went poof", and dried out quickly. I haven't seen that with a tropical storm on radar before, where it happened so quickly after approaching the land. The center hasn't even made landfall yet, (it is very close, you can see it on the Corpus Radar (Looks like they switched to clear air mode to pick up the noise).
Unfortunately for rain, Don was a bust for all but Baffin Bay southward to Mexico, even then it didn't last all too terribly long.
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
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That was definitely the fastest I have seen a Tropical Storm fall apart. It had not even made it inland before all of the strong convection collapsed. It all happened within a 2 to 2.5 hour period.
Tropical Storm Hermine last year lasted a LOT longer than Don. (Granted Hermine was a strong Tropical Storm.)
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
Edited by WesnWylie (Sat Jul 30 2011 12:08 AM)
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Allison
Weather Guru
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Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Can anyone speculate about why Don fell apart so spectacularly? Was it the dry air that had been choking it from the north? Some other factor?
We're all very disappointed here in South Texas. This was a huge let-down. We've had traces of rain this morning, but of course, nothing like what was (eagerly) anticipated.
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Allison
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MikeC
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Quote:
Can anyone speculate about why Don fell apart so spectacularly? Was it the dry air that had been choking it from the north? Some other factor?
We're all very disappointed here in South Texas. This was a huge let-down. We've had traces of rain this morning, but of course, nothing like what was (eagerly) anticipated.
As far as I can tell it was a rush of dry air from the northeast Gulf, combined with the shear and dry air over texas. The rush was enough to completely decouple the system (it was tilted already the entire time it was in the central and west gulf). That last bit was enough to break it apart, then the dry air just did it in.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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As Don approached the coast it encountered dry air aloft near 95W (its still there). Although Don was a small system, the outer circulation of Don probably had been drawing this dry airmass down from east Texas for quite a few hours as the tropical storm moved closer to the coast. The high temperatures in Laredo were 106 on the 27th, 105 on the 28th and 102 on the 29th with dewpoints in the high 50s to mid 60s. Picking College Station as an example further to the north where the dry air would have originated, the high temperatures for those same days were 103,102 and 99. With northerly winds aloft that were enhanced by the circulation of the storm, the dry air over east Texas (surface and aloft) wiped out the convection before the cyclone reached land in south Texas. Normally in east Texas the summers, under southerly flow, are hot and humid. This year the southerly flow is there at the surface, but its been dry aloft.
Rainfall totals from Don:
Corpus Christi 0.02
Harlingen 0.20
Brownsville 0.63
ED
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