MikeC
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11:00 PM EDT 2 August 2011 Update
The official forecast didn't change much at 11, just extended out further another point, but following the curve, it's going to be close, but odds still favor the east of US landfall side, but it will be dangerously close and must be watched closely. It may be close enough for Tropical Storm watches to be put up in part of East Central, or South Florida Late Thursday or Friday. Luckily the western side of the storm in a northward traveling system is usually the weaker side. It still will likely bring very rough surf to the beaches along the east coast.
This advisory now places Georgia, North and South Carolina, and Southeast Virginia inside the cone of uncertainty. Anyone in the cone should be keeping up with developments on Emily.
However, for those in the Bahamas, as there are now Tropical Storm Warnings up for the Southeast Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands.
New Full Update tomorrow morning.
6:00 PM EDT 2 August 2011 Update
Based upon the 5PM National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Emily has increased slightly in strength, but is still relatively disorganized.
The track forecast is becoming more obvious that it will stay offshore of Florida and the United States though, but the Bahamas will likely be dealing with the system, as there are now Tropical Storm Watches up for the Southeast Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands. It still has to cross Hispaniola, and heavy rainfall is expected. It is still possible for the storm to get torn apart over Hispaniola.
Despite the odds favoring no US hit, there still remains uncertainty with Emily's future track and strength, and this is not an "all clear". The situation will still need to be monitored, especially tomorrow and once the storm exits the Caribbean.
Heavy Flooding was experienced in Martinique and Guadeloupe from Emily, check out the StormCarib link below for more information on that.
Feel free to reply to ask questions, or make observations.
Want to read Speculation, and best guesses? Check out the Forecast Lounge.
8:30 AM EDT 2 August 2011 Update
Recon found the center a bit south and east of the official 5AM position, within the heavy convection, which is likely an indicator that Emily may gain some strength today. This will likely cause the forecast track to move further eastward later, and decreases the chance of a Florida landfall. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty left as far as how much further west Emily gets before starting to bend northward, though. So it is expected that the cone to continue to have parts of Florida in it today.
Those in the islands, however, may have to deal with a stronger system, especially as it approaches Hispaniola.
5 AM EDT 2 August 2011 Update
The morning forecast from the National Hurricane Center has arrived, and the forecast track has shifted west, in the short term, but has a tighter recurve element later, keeping it just offshore of Florida, but most of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina remains in the Cone of high uncertainty. The system is expected to remain weak, and now is forecast to remain a Tropical Storm as it stays offshore of Florida later in the track. However, the amount of uncertainty in the forecast beyond 3 days is very high, both for position and intensity.
Shear from the north northwest is currently impacting the system, and the low level center seems to be west of the main convection, in short Emily is not very healthy this morning. This weakness makes the forecast much more difficult for the hurricane center. Recon aircraft have yet to check out the system this morning, but will later in the morning.
What this means for Florida, less chance of a hurricane, but still something to keep watch on. If the system manages to hold itself together (it still may fall apart), then once it nears the islands it could strengthen some. Most likely though, it will remain weak throughout the next 4 to 5 days or so, but the uncertainty level with that is high. It will be important to monitor it throughout the week. Much depends on how intense (or not) the storm is, and intensity is the least understood element of hurricane forecasting.
Emily's forecast is likely to change again, and it is too soon to tell if it is in Florida's favor or not.
Outside of Emily, there is a wave in the eastern Atlantic that may develop next week, but nothing really elsewhere.
Feel free to reply to ask questions, or make observations.
Want to read Speculation, and best guesses? Check out the Forecast Lounge.
BoatUS
Dominican Republic Meteorological
Martinique Radar Recording Emily/91L Approach (flhurricane)
Long term recording of Emily Floater Water Vapor Imagery (flhurricane)
Long term recording of Emily Floater Visible Imagery (flhurricane)
Long term recording of Caribbean Water Vapor Satellite Imagery of Emily (flhurricane)
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee
11PM EDT 1 August 2011 Update
The 11PM mostly keeps everything the same, the track adjusted slightly to the right. There is a great deal of uncertainty, indeed the official discussion brings up the weaker system keeping it further west, vs the stronger system heading north into the ridge weakness sooner. In short, not much different from the earlier advisory.
Initial thoughts are that Emily will stay to the east of Florida. Looking at the 500MB setup in the 12Z Euro, the pattern looks a lot like the 18Z , with a weakness developing in the western Atlantic. Not a huge trough, per se, but enough of a weakness to take Emily slowly northward after coming out of the Greater Antilles. But this really depends on how far west it goes, if it is further west than the forecast track states in the morning, Florida gets back into it again, if Hispaniola does not destroy the system.
As far as intensity is concerned, just gradual slow either maintenance or slight strengthening for the near term. Upper air just isn't good to support any rapid increases. Maybe a few random bursts from time to time until it gets out of the Caribbean.
However, most of the state of Florida is in the cone, and it is important to monitor this system closely.
We'll update in the morning.
Original Update
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft have finally closed off a circulation center in the wave area known as 91L, with winds supporting Tropical Storm force. Thus, Tropical Storm Emily (2011 edition) is born.
Tropical Storm Warnings up for:
Dominica
Guadaloupe, Desirade, Les Saintes, Marie Galante
Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
and the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Watches up for:
U.S. Virgin Islands
St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Haiti
The current forecast cone takes the storm across the Caribbean and crosses over Hispaniola, which may serve to weaken (and hopefully destroy) the storm, but not without causing a great deal of trouble for Haiti.
Thursday it is projected to near the Southern Bahamas, and travel along the southwesterly side. Saturday it is projected to approach south Florida, and be very near the coast near west Palm beach Saturday late afternoon into evening. The average error at this far out is 250 miles either direction, so it is not a certain thing by any means, especially after 48 hours. Those in the potential cone area will want to make sure review your plan and hurricane supplies before the rush at the end of the week if this forecast verifies.
If the initial 7:30 PM official forecast were to pan out, Emily would move up the spine of the state, and potentially exit near Daytona Beach, which would include most of east Central Florida in the dirty side of the system. It is likely to change somewhat though, hopefully to the far east. (Although further westward motion is possible, those in Tampa and West coasts will want to keep an eye on it as well). If it were to change, it would most likely move further east toward the Bahamas, but it is important to stay informed to see what happens to the forecast, especially when the system eventually leaves the Caribbean.
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typhoon_tip
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Fascinating meteorology apparent with 91L's naming. Late this afternoon, a small plume of colder cloud tops erupted around the NE quadrant of the low level swirl that had been ejected out of the overnight general region of ill-looking convection. This then wrapped around the N side continuing to develop, and has apparently recently subsumed the vortex altogether.
I believe that prior to this recovery in development 91L was both too large, and too close in proximity to SAL. The former retarded development because it had more than one vortex vying for development and these interfered with one another; the latter is a dust/dry air concern. During the day, numerous arcus clouds could be seen emanating from the occasional convective elements, and this is consistent with dry air entrainment.
With the low level circulation accelerating away from these two mitigating factors, it is interesting to see this rapid response. We'll see if it persists, but with ample oceanic heat content and sufficient anticyclonic motion noted in the u/a analysis, there doesn't appear to be any hugely mitigating circumstance for the time being. That may be why a lot of the intensity guidance still insists on Cat 1 or 2 status conflicting with the land masses along and west of the Puerto Rico archipelago.
Edited by typhoon_tip (Tue Aug 02 2011 12:10 AM)
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danielw
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Tonight's Upper Air Sounding, Skew-T from Le Raizet, Guadaloupe shows dry air at the 400mb level or about 22,000 feet. That's the narrow angle that goes off to the left side of the diagram between the 400 and 500 mb marks on the left sidebar.
Lines close together indicate moist air and lines spaced apart are drier air.
This data is taken from a weather balloon launched from the ground, and is the opposite measurement of the atmosphere compared to a Hurricane dropsonde. The dropsonde falls through the system, and the weather balloon rises through the system.
The wind barbs on the right side bar are cyclonic, possibly/ probably storm connected, up to the 200 mb level where they become anticyclonic to a height of 100 millibars, or about 50,000 feet.
I believe this type sounding is conducive to some intensification. A Met could probably give us more information along that line.
Anticyclonic winds above cyclonic winds gives the system an exhaust or ventilation.
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LoisCane
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Emily has continued to ramp up throughout the evening. Sort of mesmerizing to see if she maintains this overnight.
I noticed that green is beginning to pop out on the funk top
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/ft-l.jpg
If that continues we could have a much stronger storm by morning. There is a diving trough right now, it will be interesting to see if Emily pulls more to the north away from her stubborn westward movement.
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MikeC
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The 11PM mostly keeps everything the same, the track adjusted slightly to the right. There is a great deal of uncertainty, indeed the official discussion brings up the weaker system keeping it further west, vs the stronger system heading north into the ridge weakness sooner. In short, not much different from the earlier advisory.
My initial thoughts are that Emily will stay to the east of Florida. Looking at the 500MB setup in the 12Z Euro, the pattern looks a lot like the 18Z , with a weakness developing in the western Atlantic. Not a huge trough, per se, but enough of a weakness to take Emily slowly northward after coming out of the Greater Antilles. But this really depends on how far west it goes, if it is further west than the forecast track states in the morning, Florida gets back into it again, if Hispaniola does not destroy the system.
As far as intensity is concerned, just gradual slow either maintenance or slight strengthening for the near term. Upper air just isn't good to support any rapid increases. Maybe a few random bursts from time to time until it gets out of the Caribbean.
We'll update in the morning.
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danielw
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It appears that the westward movement is keeping her alive. Based on the SAL dry air to the north of the storm.
Lois referred to the 'green' on the Funk Top satellite enhancement. I've included the latest Funk Top shot below. It basically indicates the towering higher cloud tops.
The mid/ upper level of Emily should have cleared the mountainous terrain of the Islands, for the most part. The current Center appears to be in the doughnut shaped area to the left of the Green or Blue. Depending on which shot you are viewing.
What is strange is the indentation on the western/ front side of Emily. I believe that the storm is ingesting dry air at some level leaving the satellite signature looking like the cookie monster took a bite out of the western side of Emily.
It's evident on all of the imagery that I have looked at tonight.
Dry air entrainment at it's best. Once Emily moves the main convection into the Eastern Caribbean the flow across Puerto Rico should diminish some of the dry air. Unless she turns NW.
Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 02 2011 03:02 AM)
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OrlandoDan
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She is looking a bit ragged as of 0646 EDT, with what looks like a cut of dry air intruding from the north and cutting into convection to the west. Only time will tell.
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Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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MikeC
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Just turned on visible recording
Long term recording of Emily Floater Visible Imagery (flhurricane)
Older recordings (Both still active)
Martinique Radar Recording Emily/91L Approach (flhurricane) -- will be shut off at 1PM.
Long term recording of Emily Floater Water Vapor Imagery (flhurricane)
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weathernet
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Looking at this morning's imagary, I could not help but worry that the center might be farther back and closer to ( or under ) the newly bursting convection. In fact, as of 8:00am put out an intermediate that recon has relocated the center to 15.3N and 63.7W. Though reports still claim unorganized, I cannot help but perceive that Emily may now be getting more organized. Despite a possible entrainment of dryer air and some shear at the 300mb level, upper 200mb level outflow looks fairly impressive in nearly all quadrants. Whether or not the system might be becoming more vertically stacked, might also suggest a more right bias with regards to overall motion. The BAMS and BAMM might be then less considered. One thing seems evident, and that is that the overall environment seems to be moistening up.
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adam s
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The next 12 to 24 hours for Emily is critical for the survival of this storm. Emily must win the battle of beating the shear and dry air to survive. If Emily can cross the island hispaniola intact then the storm can reach Hurricane status.
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scottsvb
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Emily looks a lot better than 24hrs ago. Some under cutting Atlantic Basin (I call it) shear at the 300mb levels but she has plenty of moisture to work with right now compared to 1 day ago.
Models though are backing away on development.. especially .
I agree that what she does over the next 24hrs in intensity could determine
her movement in the carribean. Stronger system will begin to move more WNW then
NW into Hispaniola.. a more weaker TS or trough will move towards Jamaica-Cuba and
models seem to shear this out.
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LoisCane
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Yeah, I think the models were run before the new burst of convection and what appears to be her center.. recon will or won't confirm that this morning. The discussion this morning was also written before the first great visibles.
Something is going on with Emily and if this trend continues she may make the trek after all.
Question is which way is she moving. Hard to tell movement when a storm is relocating or still in infancy stage.
The green on funk top last night was followed by a great presentation on both visible and water vapor imagery.
I think we have a keeper... will see. Can't wait to see the discussion at 11 and what recon finds with the data when it's all been gone over.
For now.. .she is the healthiest I have seen her since the split personality phase... can she stay together?
The dust is there, so is shear but that's par for the course with tropical storms in early August.
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scottsvb
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Hard to see at 945am exactly where the center is.. according to recon it was around 15.3 and 63.7W for the 8am adv....
LLC could be on the NW edge of the main ball of convection... but it could of kept slowing down and be in the main area.. hard to tell for me.
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adam s
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Unless we get an exact location of the center of Tropical Storm Emily I would not trust any models at this time. The models for this storm are in disagreement as far as the intensity, location and survival of Emily.
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MichaelA
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Quote:
Unless we get an exact location of the center of Tropical Storm Emily I would not trust any models at this time. The models for this storm are in disagreement as far as the intensity, location and survival of Emily.
The center fix from recon was SE of where they thought it was (which puts it pretty much directly under the ), so that will affect the next model runs and also pretty much makes the previous runs irrelevant at this point. It will be interesting to see what the 12Z runs look like.
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Michael
PWS
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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a is forming nicely, this should be a mute point pretty soon as long as she maintains it
if that is not her center, i cannot imagine what is and if it is... she's got a nice
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ft.html
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scottsvb
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Dont know why I see no pressure reports outside of the vortex report...I guess they have some technical issues?
Anyways... the convection looks nice and all near the LLC.. but if the pressure doesn't respond
and drop.. then makes me wonder if this is more of a low-midlevel vortex and it's just not
fully stacked correctly to the surface. If so, this will degenerate into a trough by 70W.. I guess
today and tonight will tell.
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scottsvb
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Confirmed by the Recon
Displacement of SFC. Center From Flt. Lvl. Center: Surface center is 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NW (310°) from the flight level center
Pressure 1008mb so this may look nice on satellite.. it has not getting stronger.
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MikeC
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Emily is stationary at the 11AM advisory, which unfortunately, means the future still remains cloudy for now. The split system issue from Sunday is still plaguing development even today.
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JMII
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Let's not forget that down the road Emily has to cross a pretty mountainous chunk of land so she might not make it at all. There is also a large area of dry air to the NW of Emily's currently location. Oddly historical data suggests a more westerly path putting her in the GOM. She is looking better with a and some outflow, at one point yesterday it looked like she was going to fall completely apart. Now a more westerly path will allowing for strengthening where the current forecast path of NW (becoming NNW over time) looks to keep her weak. 11AM update indicates she is reorganizing but stalled right now.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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