MikeC
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11AM 18 August 2011 Update
The wave in the Atlantic is now being tracked as 97L, those in the Caribbean Islands will want to watch it early next week, and those in the Southeast, including Florida will want to monitor what happens with it late next week.
Speculation on the system can be found in the Forecast Lounge.
7AM 17 August 2011 Update
With Gert gone, attention focuses on the wave in the Caribbean (93L) which may have some time to develop before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula, it will likely be rain maker for central America, but time to organize will be short once it arrives in the west Caribbean.
The wave in the far eastern Atlantic still has odds that slightly do *not* favor a recurve before the continental United States. It so many eyes will likely be on this one next week if the convection in the system persists. The names for the next two systems are Harvey and Irene.
7AM 16 August 2011 Update
Tropical Storm Gert is on the wind down as it accelerates to the northeast into the open north Atlantic. The last advisory should likely come later today.
Beyond Gert, the area in the Caribbean (93L) was destroyed by dry air overnight, and it looks like it will remain weak, it has a chance to reform as a Tropical Storm when it reaches the west Caribbean late this week.
The wave currently off Africa will probably the one being talked about at the end of the week. Model runs on this one are interesting also, implying a possible threat to the Northeast Caribbean and odds favoring it staying more west than south. Strength of the overall system, however, will be the key here. This has not been designated an Invest area as of yet.
Original Update
After a bit of a crazy flare up last week, the only thing left is basically Tropical Storm Gert, which will pass very closely to the east of Bermuda later today.
There were a number of waves tracked last week, two actually developed, but recurved away (with the exception that Gert is uncomfortably close to Bermuda).
Gert has a shot at become the first hurricane of the season, even if away from land at the time.
What comes next? Well the air in the Atlantic remains fairly stable, and the Saharan Air Layer which dried up systems is very strong, so it appears Cape Verde type tracking systems are out for this week at least, and that remains a good sign there. Closer to home is what to watch out for, since anything that does form can do so quickly this time of year. (Indeed that is how we wound up with 4 invests last week, 2 of which formed into named systems)
Yes it is unusually to have this many named systems by mid August, even more unusual is that all have them have been on the weak side, and none yet (although Gert may break the streak) have only been Tropical Storms.
Places this week to watch for convection persistence, Just east of Caribbean including the eastern Caribbean Sea (93L), offshore of the Southeast US Coast, and West Caribbean.
Weather Conditions at Hamilton, Bermuda
Bermuda Weather Radar
Flhurricane Radar Recording of Martinique Radar (93L Approach)
Long term Central Atantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
Long term West Atantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
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It looks like we are seeing a re-emergence of 93L. Lots of convection associated with this wave today. The model runs for 93L have also begun once again. The increased this wave's chance for development from 10% to 20% with their 1:00 PM CDT update.
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
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MikeC
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Added Flhurricane Radar Recording of Martinique Radar (93L Approach)
Also 93L is facing a real monster of a ridge to the north as it approaches the west Caribbean. It's extremely likely this system continues westward into Central America and into Mexico later.
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Edski
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the track models seem to have had this wave figured out from the start. the wave that just came off of Africa appears to be at a pretty low latitude, but I'm not sure that it looks vigorous enough to track anytime soon. my SWAG would be that it takes a similar track/evolution.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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With that high anchored over the GOM, just about nothing is going to go there soon. It has been a very strange summer so far with low level westerlies controlling the weather over FL rather than the usual easterly flow. I miss my afternoon thunderstorms here on the west coast.
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Michael
PWS
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doug
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Good Morning
Dry air off the continent in that section of the SE Carribean is why it is designated the "gravyard" for budding tropical systems. the circulation is in tact and there is a surprising amount of convection filtering in from the north and east, so some regeneration may be possible from today out. I agree with the unusual run of weather over the eastern GOM this year. The pattern has held since June. I am also impressed with the relative weakness of all systems which have formed this year and find it unusual that we are at 7 storms and no hurricanes.
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doug
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JMII
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Quote:
With that high anchored over the GOM, just about nothing is going to go there soon. It has been a very strange summer so far with low level westerlies controlling the weather over FL rather than the usual easterly flow. I miss my afternoon thunderstorms here on the west coast.
Excellent observation. Here on the east coast of FL we've been drenched by storms the last few weeks, all coming in from the west. They are not the "pop up" type of thunderstorms either, they have been forming in a line like a front. Awhile back there was even a small tornado in Tamarac which is highly unusual.
93L has a huge circulation associated with it but between it an Central America is pool of dry air. Interesting to watch all those little eddies spinning out there, but none of them seem to be able to get their act together. Gret is toast, just like Franklin before - both formed way too far north to even have a chance. In fact I'm still trying to figure out how Franklin got named, it never looked like a TS to me.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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To quote a famous line from LIPhil:
"If the topic ain't tropic, your post is toast."
Just a gentle nudge to keep the discussion 'on-topic'.
Thanks,
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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There is a hint of a developing circulation at some level near 15N 71W at 16/03Z. Movement has been to the west and should continue to be westward for a day or so. Steering current analysis from SSEC suggest that the system will slow down as it enters a col area in the western Caribbean Sea. An area of light southerly shear ahead of the system is moving westward and a large area of dry air is still evident in the western half of the Caribbean Sea. SST is about 28.5C so chances for additional development should slowly increase.
ED
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danielw
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93L is located to the left of the center of the satellite image below. Just west of the 70W line.
Just east of Barbados a new round of convection has been firing up over the last few hours. It appears to be on the trailing end of the 93L wave/ trough. Strange to see something pulse up on the trailing end.
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M.A.
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93L looks to be getting better organized. Banding is becoming apparent on the south side. Convection is starting to fill in the doughnut hole from earlier. It will be an interesting watch this evening.
Edited by M.A. (Wed Aug 17 2011 02:38 PM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Recon was not able to close off a Low. No westerly winds, at Flight level, were found in 93L. Stay tuned...
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