MikeC
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5:00AM EDT 25 August 2011 Update
Irene Remains a category 3 hurricane, and tropical storm and hurricane watches are now posted for South Carolina and North Carolina, respectively.
8:30AM EDT 24 August 2011 Update
Irene is now a category 3 major hurricane with sustained winds of 115Mph after the two recon planes flying in Irene found it intensifying once again.
The track thinking is similar to earlier, with Irene stair-stepping west northwest to northwest during the day.
Original Update
Hurricane Irene strengthened overnight and is one again a category 2 hurricane, with 110MPH Winds and 962 pressure. It is expected to become a category 3 over the Bahamas today. An eye become visible overnight, which
will help with determining direction (short term wobbles should not be taken into account unless they persist over a few hours)
The official forecast track has shifted slightly eastward, but still clips the outer banks of North Carolina, and approaches Eastern Long Island Late Sunday Early Monday morning. Today is a very important day as Irene's motions will determine the probabilities for landfall of where it eventually goes to. So far the trends have been to the east offshore of the outer banks.
Hurricane warnings remain up for the entire Bahamas island chain.
Irene's closest approach to Florida will likely be just over 200 miles to the east, which is far enough away for very little affect on Florida other than rough surf and beach erosion. For east central Florda."beach and boating conditions will be treacherous, with dangerous pounding surf and breaking waves of 8-10 feet or higher. Seas are expected to build to 20-25 feet over the open Atlantic. Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings are now in effect for all of the East Central Florida coastal waters (but not land areas). Windy conditions and squalls associated with the outer bands of Irene can be expected to affect East Central Florida starting Thursday."
Still it is important for those in the southeast to check back in on Irene while it is such a large storm for any changes, but trends still favor a trend further out east than west. Official track updates come at 11AM, 5PM, 11PM, and 5AM eastern time.
In the far east Atlantic, 90L is being watched, odds highly favor a recurve before the US, but Bermuda may have to watch down the road. This has a 50% chance to develop into a tropical depression within the next two days.
East of the Caribbean near the "tail" of Irene is another system that has sprung up that may need watching.
See the Forecast Lounge for more speculation on Irene.
Event Links
Flhurricane Disaster and preparatory information thread.
We are now recording the Rocky Bay webcam at Abaco Island in the Bahamas -- note these images are large.
Hope Town Fire rescue on Abaco Island, storm information
Updated Map of Mark Sudduth from HurricaneTrack.com, with video and radar for Irene approach See HurricaneTrack.com for more information.
RGB satellite recording of Irene.
Long Term Long Range US Radar of Irene
Long term Central Atlantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
Long term West Atlantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
Edited by Bloodstar (Thu Aug 25 2011 08:57 AM)
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Tazmanian93
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Good morning, did you mean to say "Northwest" ?
Edited by MikeC (Wed Aug 24 2011 11:15 AM)
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Random Chaos
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Kermit is on the way in. We should have a eye pressure within the next 15 to 30 minutes. Airforce AF303 is also heading in, but a little further out still.
SSD is up to T5.5 (indicates generally a cat 3 storm)
CMISS Advanced Technique is up to T6.3 (indicates a cat 4 storm)
Going to be interesting to see what Recon finds. Storm presentation is good, but has degraded a little over the past hour as it appears the center is filling in a little.
Edit:
Kermit just passed through the center. HDOB data shows surface pressure extrapolated to 951mb, generally associated with a category 3 storm.
Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Aug 24 2011 11:04 AM)
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MikeC
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Quote:
Good morning, did you mean to say "Northwest" ?
Yes the movement is turning more to the northwest this morning away from west northwest at the 5AM. It's probably going to wobble/stairstep a lot today though.
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Random Chaos
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Dropsonde in the eye found 957mb surface pressure. That's 5mb strengthening over the estimate in their 5am update, and would be lower end of category 3 generally.
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danielw
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Quote:
Dropsonde in the eye found 957mb surface pressure. That's 5mb strengthening over the estimate in their 5am update, and would be lower end of category 3 generally.
957mb is roughly a max possible wind speed of 118 mph. So Irene is just under the curve.
951mb would be max of 124 mph.
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JMII
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While she is getting stronger the wind field appears to be pretty small. Pine Cay was only 40 miles from the eye and at 3:50AM recorded a low pressure of 29.2in and a gust of 72 mph. Crooked Island looks to take a direct hit, but I didn't see any weather stations that stream data from that location.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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scottsvb
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Irene should continue to deepen over the next 36hrs...then weakening will take place but
a expanding windfield once it passes NC. NC,RI,Mass will get some hurricane force winds.
Overall she is still on forecasted path..maybe even slightly east of where I placed her last weekend.
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Firebug814
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I asked the question yesterday about Irene heading WNW, well it is still heading basically WNW and yet the has said it is moving NW. Is this a way to make themselves not look wrong with the forcast? I am just looking at all of the coodinates and over the last 4 Irene is still moving well more West than North. Am I missing something?
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adam s
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Every model run Irene is heading further east. I don't think Irene will hit the U.S.
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Tazmanian93
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
Quote:
Every model run Irene is heading further east. I don't think Irene will hit the U.S.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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MikeC
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Quote:
I asked the question yesterday about Irene heading WNW, well it is still heading basically WNW and yet the has said it is moving NW. Is this a way to make themselves not look wrong with the forcast? I am just looking at all of the coodinates and over the last 4 Irene is still moving well more West than North. Am I missing something?
The last 4 coordinate points have been about 305 degrees (IE northwest), and the latest recon fixes have shown generally northwest.
The storm is going to wobble and stair-step, but the overall smooth motion is going to go slowly from northwest to more north over today and tomorrow. If anything the forecast track is not far east enough. Watching the satellite of Irene for movement constantly will test your nerves on a storm like this, right now it stair-stepped westward, a longer jog northward will probably happen. If after 6 hours a "jog" keeps going, you have something.
Odds are dropping for a NC landfall as well, now to about 25%. Still 1 in 4 chance is not something to play games with in a hurricane like this. It is going to be rough in the Carolinas, and it will likely be a good deal closer and stronger than Earl last year (that missed further to the east). If you are on the outer banks, I'd still make plans to leave Thursday or by the latest Friday. If hurricane watches/warnings are issued, take heed.
The reason we say "without the hype" is that we look at why things will not happen over why they will, because hurricane landfalls are a rare event. I honestly do not see anything that would make it go back more west right now and plenty of reasons that would nudge the track more eastward. If that changes I will immediately post that.
Really the official forecast is probably going to be correct (at least to 3 days)
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tpratch
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Quote:
I asked the question yesterday about Irene heading WNW, well it is still heading basically WNW and yet the has said it is moving NW. Is this a way to make themselves not look wrong with the forcast? I am just looking at all of the coodinates and over the last 4 Irene is still moving well more West than North. Am I missing something?
The fixes have trends and the last one is definitely "toward the northwest" as was the phrasing in the 11am update. I'm not sure what you're seeing to suggest more west than north overall.
16 08/24 5:00 AM 21.6N 72.9W
(.3 north, .4 west)
16A 08/24 8:00 AM 21.9N 73.3W
(.5 north, .4 west)
17 08/24 11:00 AM 22.4N 73.9W
A 3 hour block of movement is sufficient to be a trend - a 6 hour, more so.
We have a NW trend over the past 6 hours - more than sufficient to call for a NW heading.
Edited by tpratch (Wed Aug 24 2011 03:32 PM)
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MikeC
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Recon found 117 knot flight level winds, which translates to about 120MPH on the ground, so Irene is strengthening still, over the Bahamas. It's stair stepping westward now, but should jog back to the north fairly soon.
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WeatherNut
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Also, dont forget that intense hurricanes tend to wobble. They dont go straight WNW or NW. Motion is usually an average of 6hrs. A good example is currently it looks like its going more westward than before, but it you look at the entire loop the motion is consistent with what the has said
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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JMII
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The eye is currently directly over Crooked Island. Current motion suggests the eye will come very close to Long Island (Bahamas, not NY) and just to the SW of Rum Cay around 8PM tonight. Next up will be Cat Island with George Town, Bahamas being right on the edge of the eye wall. Currently winds at George Town are out of the NNE at 20 gusting to 30 mph, pressure 29.6 and falling, with Irene located approximately 100 miles to the SE.
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okihabu
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Withthe increase in forward speed from 9 to 12 mph, and the increase in strength to a cat 2, how will that effect the overall tract it will take? I know the stronger the storm the more it might shift north, and as I see what Mike said, it looks like it still has a wnw tract, but says nw!! The stair steps its doing still has it going wnw. The slight increase in forward speed not be much but how far will it tract either way?
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Chuck Good
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MikeC
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The jogs mean a lot for the Bahamas, for example This view is showing that the core of Irene may jog over Long Island in the Bahamas vs stay east, which in damage potential, is huge, and unfortunate for that Island. What's being watched for now is when it turns due north, and hopefully sooner rather than later for the Northeast.
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Ed Dunham
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Pure northwest would be 315 degrees. The range for 'northwest' would be from 305 to 325 degrees. On the last bulletin, stated a movement of 305 degrees, so by definition, that is a movement to the northwest. From 12Z to 18Z Irene moved 0.8 degrees north and 1.0 degrees west - or about 310 degrees - a northwesterly direction. Do hurricanes wobble along on their track - yes. However, the wobbles don't mean a thing in terms of defining direction until they become an established trend in a certain direction over something beyond a couple of hours of time.
ED
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MikeC
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Forgot to post this yesterday, but the National Weather Service in Melbourne is doing video presentations on Irene, this link is today's..
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