JMII
Weather Master
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Posts: 546
Loc: Margate, Florida
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The wind field may be large, but only TS force winds. The hurricane force winds are in a small cluster to the NE of the center. I noticed yesterday that the front moving off the east coast was pretty sizable and thus might be able to nudge Irene a touch east. However the front is gone now leaving Irene to pulled due north into NC. Luckily the atmosphere in is full of dry air so she is going to be cut off from the moisture flow. The SW side of this storm has never looked good and that trend continues as it appears she has sucked some dry air which causes some weakness. The IR image shows some rebuilding is beginning, just a question of how much can occur before landfall. The next front coming down is a weak dip, not enough to kick Irene away, so I'd say the forecast path is pretty good. I think the areas around DC will see the worst of it, with wind, rain and surge all pushing ashore in that area the most.
In regards to surge, the one thing I've always heard is: hide from wind, run from water. Rising water is no joke, I witnessed surge only once: during David in '79 and its a strange sight to see your boat in the backyard ABOVE your dock and seawall. That was a Cat 2 in West Palm and I lived around 7-10 miles inland on the New River in Ft Laud.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Updated this list:
Power Outage Maps (roughly south to north)
Eastern Carolinas Power outage map
Virginia Power outage map
DelMarva Power outage map
Portions Maryland/DC power outage Map
Baltimore area Power outage map
Novac/Northern Virginia Power outage map
Southern Maryland Power outage map
Southeastern Pennsylvania Outage Map
Atlantic City (Southern New Jersey) Power outage map
Jersey Central Power outage map
Northern New Jersey PSEG outage map
New York City/ConEd Power outage map
Long Island Power outage map
Connecticut Power outage map
Rhode Island/Mass Power outage map
New Hampshire Power outage map
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
I just want to say sarcastically, I Love how people here think this is all a game... Floridians know better to be prepared for a Hurricane/TS but here in NH, everyone thinks I am insane going to buy flashlights, and ice bags, and a cooler... and things to be prepared without power for a few days...
I think that you will be highly regarded in the coming weeks. Just tell them it's like the longest, warmest Nor'Easter that they have experienced.
Explain the serious of the Storm to them. If they don't listen. At least you tried to help.
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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 75
Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
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"Hide from the wind. And run from the Water."
On the other hand, my own closest brush with death from a tropical cyclone happened when a window air conditioner blew out of the window and came sailing across the room almost landing on my chest (during an Okinawa typhoon) The wind can get you too--and it can come from things you forgot to secure properly. While watching the Weather Channel, I noticed things like port-a-potties sitting around on the Virginia beaches. I trust all that stuff will be removed very soon. Otherwise, they could become missiles.
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Just a reminder to all when posting to the main page that it is important to stick to facts, and to go light on speculation, rumors, or "gut feelings." There are a number of popular misconceptions with hurricanes (including some outright myths), that get spread around on the Internet during times like now, and the main page is the last place to put them.
With regard to Irene, a few points can not be stressed enough:
* Irene is a very large hurricane with an equally impressive wind field. Generally, the larger the wind field, the greater the potential storm surge (all other variables being equal).
It is inadequate to relate the Saffir-Simpson Scale directly with storm surge, and as such, the has dropped sharing this guide as it has become more a myth, than reality. A very large hurricane can easily produce storm surge one to even three categories above what might typically be found in a mid or small-sized system of equal Category. (Recall & Ike).
* While winds in most hurricanes in the northern hemisphere do tend to be stronger within the right-front quadrant (northeast quadrant in the case of Irene heading up the east coast), this does not imply that winds will be less dangerous in most if not all other quadrants.
As of this 3:30 PM EDT, verified sustained tropical storm force winds are already occurring just off the coast of South Carolina, well to the northwest of Irene's center. The current wind radius forecast from for 12UTC tomorrow is as follows:
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.4N 76.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 105SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 130SW 160NW.
Thus the forecast for 08/27/1200Z is calling for sustained hurricane-fore winds out between 50 and 80 nautical miles in all directions from Irene's center, with high-end tropical storm force winds extending out between 75 and 125 from the center.
* Most tropical cyclone related deaths in the US are now caused by inland flooding.
Even though Irene should be moving forward at an increasing clip, her large size will be accompanied by many hours of rain, some of it very heavy. This persistent rain over a very large area will be falling over parts of the country that have already experienced very excessive rainfall this month. For an example of what can result from this kind of setup, a look at the 1955 Atlantic Hurricane Season is reasonable: ( Wikipedia 1955 Atlantic Hurricane Season ). Inland river flooding became locally catastrophic from back-to-back hurricanes Connie & Diane, a real 1-2 punch.
* Saturated ground gives way easier to effects from strong winds and persistent, heavy rain.
As very large and wet Irene is forecast to spend a good deal of time over ground that has already received copious rainfall, less wind than usual will be all that's required to down trees.
In addition, there will be some increased risk of mudslides along hilly terrain.
* The higher up a building is, the greater the wind speed. A ten story building can easily experience winds a full category higher than a single story structure.
Unlike many other locations that have been hit by hurricanes in recent years, but which have structures no more than a few stories tall, much of the northeast is built skyward.
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
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Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Having lived a month without power in '04, I also suggest that you get a camp stove and some propane, if you don't have one already. The camp stove makes cooking or even making a pot of coffee a whole lot easier than grilling. If you plan on running a generator to keep the fridge and/or a few lights going, remember to get some small or medium gas cans so that all members of the family can help refuel and keep the generator running (the bigger cans can be way too heavy for some ppl to handle when refueling).
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Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08, Hermine '16, Irma '17, Michael '18, Idalia '23, Helene '24
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Recon is finding an eyewall starting to form again, and slightly lower pressure. Some of the models were showing some strengthening before NC landfall, so it's not entirely unexpected, but it will likely landfall about what it is now.
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JMII
Weather Master
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Posts: 546
Loc: Margate, Florida
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The good news is the is now showing Irene as between a Cat 1 & Cat 2 at landfall. Discussion indicate that the core is eroding and she is weakened somewhat. I'd be surprised to see hurricane forces sustained winds report onshore, however lots of gusts to hurricane force are very possible. There are several buoys ahead of the storm that should give a good indication of wind speeds. M41013 will be 40 miles east of Irene's core around 2AM. Next up is #41037 which is just 27 miles off the Wrightsville Beach NC.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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The time before landfall is usually pretty quiet (on sites like this) unless there's some sort of news, at landfall there will be mixed reports, mostly good news. It takes a while (Sometimes hours or a day or two) for other news to come out since many areas will be blacked out.
Rumors will start to fly, both of "no problems" and "massive destruction" but will take a while to shake out. If someone has access to call or use the computer, chances are they weren't in the worst areas.
That said, recon found a 949mb pressure and the highest flight level winds its found all day (108kt), so it is going down again slightly.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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I also think due to the fact that it is hardly holding on as a cat 2 cane and really is most likely a 1 since the inner core of the came is gone.There still will be heavy rain and some win but the big destruction that was predicted a few days ago looks like it will not appear.But if you are on the coast i would move inland but this could have ben a lot worse if the cat 4 storm which was predicted a few days happened.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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The fact that it is category 2 is actually deceptive.
When a category 4 storm hits land, the eye is ripped apart by the interaction with land. Only the first hour or so after landfall gets the category 4 strength, while most people experience only category 1 or 2 strength, if not tropical storm strength. The winds expand outward as a result of this core dissipation, allowing tropical storm and weaker hurricane force to affect a larger area than at landfall.
This storm has already had its core decay. The wind field has already expanded. And it is 950mb pressure (approx). While the eye is trying to reform, the fact that wind field is already at post-landfall size means that this storm is going to huge. Think of it this way: the tropical storm force winds with Irene cover an area nearly half the size of the Gulf of Mexico and will be hitting 45 million or more people.
Storm surges are estimated to be up to 7 feet in some coastal areas from North Carolina to New England. Graphics I have reviewed show 4 foot storm search surrounding Manhattan Island. Norfolk area may have up to 7 feet.
I've been a little less active today due to stowing deck furniture, boats, hammocks, telescopes, and other things I want to protect from my 40 miles of NE exposure on the Chesapeake Bay.
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
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Loc: St.Pete,FL
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Well Irene's inner core is collapsing (good news), I would still expect to see this at high end cat 1 at landfall maybe lower end cat 2 but the bigger news will be the possible flooding rains and high winds over large area with many areas up the eastern seaboard seeing tropical storm sustained winds with gusts to hurricane force likely into lower New England. I see maybe some 90-100 mph in gusts possible near landfall but the bigger issue looks to be size and amount of time of damaging winds.
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JMII
Weather Master
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Posts: 546
Loc: Margate, Florida
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Based on radar she is tracking a bit further east then projected and still might miss a NC landfall if this motion continues. Hard to tell due to the distance/curve of the earth effect, but core (on radar) doesn't appear solid. Outflow to the south is all but gone based on water vapor images. Buoy #41013 is 80 miles NW from the Irene's eye and shows peak winds of 65 mph, pressure is down to 29.1" from a high of 29.9". Stay safe folks!
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Irene has quite a bit more warm ocean to go, particularly if the current trend toward the north-northeast continues. It is conceivable that on its current heading a "direct hit" is avoided, but Irene could end up with more time over water, very warm water, slowing the weakening process, and possibly even helping crack open a window for some renewed strengthening - however, enhancement is not the official forecast, and places the odds of a new round of appreciable intensification at under 20%.
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Edski
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 18
Loc: Palm Harbor, Florida, USA
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that eastward drift has looked apparent to me in the IR loop since early afternoon. a lot of dry air to the west of this beast sems to be causing it some struggles.
it is a rather impressively large wind field, and it will give a taste of the tropics to a lot of people who never have experienced it. looking at the latest loop, maybe the center misses Cape Hatteras...but with the size of the storm it really matters little. A lot of people are going to see a lot of wind and rain.
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