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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
Slow Week in August
      #94708 - Mon Aug 19 2013 08:23 PM



Invest 95L (Yucatan) Event Related Links


https://flhurricane.com/images/2013/float6latest.gif https://flhurricane.com/images/2013/stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2013&storm=6 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 95L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View




After a bit of activity last week, both systems fizzled out and now there isn't as much to watch in the tropics this week.

There is an area of convection in the Gulf of Mexico, southwest of Florida that will need to be monitored because of the time of year, but there are no models currently developing the system. If this persists through tomorrow, things may change.

Outside of this, not much going on in the Tropics, which is very unusual for this time in August.

Northeast Gulf Links <html><a href="http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_lite_loop.php" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/Loop/southeast_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Southeast Composite Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_lite.php"

onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/RadarImg/southeast.gif\>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a></html>)

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>TBW<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>TBW<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Tampa Bay, FL Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>TBW<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>TBW<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>BYX<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>BYX<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Key West, FL Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>BYX<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>BYX<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MOB<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MOB<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Mobile, AL Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MOB<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MOB<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>TLH<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>TLH<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Tallahassee FL Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>TLH<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>TLH<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>EVX<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>EVX<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Northwest Florida Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>EVX<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>EVX<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida



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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Slow Week in August [Re: MikeC]
      #94710 - Tue Aug 20 2013 04:00 AM

It is indeed unusual for the week of 19-25 August to not have a named storm. In the past 50 years it has only happened 7 times: 1967, 1968, 1977, 1978, 1982, 1997 and 2002. A very weak cyclonic curvature is noted near Cape Sable - but that's it for the entire basin.
ED

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Wingman51
Weather Guru


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Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Slow Week in August [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94711 - Tue Aug 20 2013 06:23 PM

Is GFS picking up the beginning of something or are my eyes just getting older?

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Slow Week in August [Re: Wingman51]
      #94712 - Wed Aug 21 2013 12:08 AM

The GFS does hint at a system off the African west coast in a few days, however, its probably developing the system that was at 10N 5E at 20/18Z. That however is no guarantee since stronger systems have been noted over the African continent in the past couple of weeks and many of them didn't develop. Time to wait and look for model consistency from run to run, but the basin looks uncommonly quiet for the next few days. Any model output beyond that is fodder for the Lounge.
ED

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Slow Week in August [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94713 - Wed Aug 21 2013 03:36 AM

I'll give this a 10% chance just for being in the Eastern Caribbean.
Cyclonic curvature noted in the low and mid level clouds. Currently a moderate sized convective complex is in the NE sector of the complex and has what appears to be something close to a CHT- convective hot tower. CHT's are basically turbochargers or power cells in developed tropical cyclones. I've been watching this system for several hours after local sunset and it seems to be holding together, to a degree.


Moderately dry air to the west of the system and dry air to the north of the system.


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013-edited~danielw

....IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
20N84W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N76W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS HIGH ENHANCED THE CONVECTION E
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...
CONVECTION OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE...AND FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
NE Gulf of Mexico [Re: danielw]
      #94714 - Thu Aug 22 2013 11:03 PM

NHC is giving this Low a 10% chance at becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours to 5 days. That percentage will probably increase with the 8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook.

First image is centered on the Center of Circulation for the system. Notice the overshooting cloud spike (small grey dot) just west of Tampa,FL. Small CHT?


Water Vapor image. Small yellow dot just west of Tampa. Cloud spike.


Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 22 2013 11:08 PM)

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: NE Gulf of Mexico [Re: danielw]
      #94715 - Thu Aug 22 2013 11:21 PM

Visible zoom at the same time of the above two photos.


Tampa radar cloud top heights... 51,000 feet on that spike. Nearly 10 miles high. Easily seen from Orlando, I would imagine.




Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 22 2013 11:25 PM)

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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 99
Re: Slow Week in August [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94716 - Sun Aug 25 2013 04:16 PM

It appears 95L in the Bay of Campeche is close to TD status if not already there. It doesn't have much time over water, but it's making the most of it so far.

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ralphfla
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 26
Re: Slow Week in August [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #94717 - Sun Aug 25 2013 10:24 PM

Looking at the GFS next week might get interesting way out in the Atlantic. I am hoping the model is wrong or we get a few Fishes which is what i hope they will be.

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