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TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR WESTERN HAWAII THIS WEEKEND. IMPACTS STARTING SUNDAY (LOWELL)
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 696 (Milton), US Major: 696 (Milton), FL Any: 696 (Milton), FL Major: 696 (Milton)
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General Discussion >> 2026 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumortModerator
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Reged:
Posts: 2843
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Dolly Lounge
      Sat Aug 29 2026 04:26 AM

Dolly is an exceptionally stout and resilient wave that continues deserving our attention. In the near to medium term, regeneration is unlikely. However, mid/late next week and into the holiday weekend is where things may get dicey.

The Gulf is a powder keg of untapped hot water and shear is largely expected to be on the light side during this time. There is a chance Invest Dolly makes its way into it during this favorable window.

The Gulf Stream extending well out into the southwest Atlantic is also anomalously very warm. Much of this region is also forecast to be under a lighter shear regime. Dolly may make its way over here during a favorable window.

Invest Dolly is much too robust to easily fall apart over the Antilles and is probably either going into the Gulf or the southwestern Atlantic during not only what is historically very near climo peak, but also at a time when conditions are just more favorable.


Above: SSTs Image credit: Cyclonicwx.com


Hurricane model runs are still going on Invest Dolly. This should be helpful. In addition, as Dolly draws closer, recon may get tapped to sample the environment at the very least.

In the meantime, here are some of the 8/29/0z Global runs that extend far enough into the future to glean how the wave may respond to being in a much more favorable condition for development.

EURO at 144 hours out


UKMET at 144 hours out


GFS at 144 hours out


CANADIAN at 144 hours out


ICON at 144 hours out


In summary
EURO - No redevelopment
UKMET - Redeveloped
GFS - Redeveloped
Canadian - Redeveloped
ICON - Redeveloped

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Dolly Lounge cieldumortModerator Sat Aug 29 2026 04:26 AM
. * * Re: Dolly Lounge cieldumortModerator   Mon Aug 31 2026 02:57 AM
. * * Re: Dolly Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 31 2026 07:43 AM
. * * Re: Dolly Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sun Aug 30 2026 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Dolly Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sun Aug 30 2026 04:48 AM
. * * Re: Dolly Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sun Aug 30 2026 03:16 AM
. * * Re: Dolly Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Aug 29 2026 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Dolly Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Aug 29 2026 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Dolly Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Aug 29 2026 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Dolly Lounge cieldumortModerator   Fri Aug 28 2026 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Dolly Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Aug 29 2026 04:26 AM
. * * Re: Dolly Lounge Yaakov   Sun Aug 30 2026 08:28 AM
. * * Re: Dolly Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 29 2026 07:24 AM
. * * Re: Dolly Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 29 2026 11:39 AM
. * * Re: Dolly Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 29 2026 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Dolly Lounge cieldumortModerator   Fri Aug 28 2026 01:07 PM
. * * Re: Dolly Lounge cieldumortModerator   Thu Aug 27 2026 02:44 PM
. * * Re: Dolly Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 28 2026 07:11 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 27 2026 07:21 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Thu Aug 27 2026 10:37 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 27 2026 01:46 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Thu Aug 27 2026 03:40 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Aug 26 2026 10:25 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Aug 26 2026 10:04 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Aug 26 2026 04:20 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Aug 26 2026 05:34 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 26 2026 07:42 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Aug 26 2026 01:23 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Aug 26 2026 12:06 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Aug 25 2026 02:24 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 26 2026 07:27 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Aug 26 2026 11:40 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Aug 25 2026 01:27 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Aug 25 2026 12:45 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Aug 25 2026 12:33 PM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Tue Aug 25 2026 09:39 AM
. * * Re: 96L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Mon Aug 24 2026 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Robust New Tropical Wave Invest TBD cieldumortModerator   Mon Aug 24 2026 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Robust New Tropical Wave Invest TBD cieldumortModerator   Mon Aug 24 2026 11:19 AM

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