You know that GFS stands for "Good For S---" don't you?
Seriously, The African wave train is chugging along, and even if these waves don't develop where they are, they are still making it across the pond. If what was once 95L can make it to the lesser Antilles, I'd say we have a serious candidate for development. TWC even mentioned this possibility.
After a pretty interesting day yesterday, today dampened a lot of "first storm" hopes. The low southeast of Bermuda never got going, and now it probably will keep chugging northeast all the way to England...James & Rich B. keep an eye on that one, will you? The first African wave slammed into South America. Someone earlier thought that the former 95L would play sacrificial lamb for the wave following it. That could easily happen, but I still think 95L could eventyally develop if it can make it fairly intact to the Islands.
If this were mid-August, not early July, we'd be tracking three or four storms simultaneously. I'd be a tad worried about everyone's #s, but Rob (da) Mann predicted it would be a slow start and indeed he and IWIC have been spot on so far (tip of the cap Rob, Jason & Kevin).
I guess we're all Jonesing for that first TD to get cranking, but as Ed has admonished, patience, please. If this one (season) pans out like all the experts expect, we'll have PLENTY to watch and fairly soon, too. Still think ex-95L needs to be watched and (this is purely a guess), if it develops it goes across South Fla & into the GOM.
Peace & Cheers,
LI Phil
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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