No real big changes from my previous forecast, except to bump all of the numbers up one, from 13/7/3 to 14/8/4. I believe we'll see a subtropical cyclone influence the total number of storms, while I feel we'll have a good shot at above-normal hurricane activity. Warm SSTs in the central Atlantic coupled with statistical trends over the past few seasons and what should be rapidly warming SSTs in the western Atlantic over the next few weeks provide my primary justification. Shear values are still high across the basin, but moving north with time.
I feel we will see a season that matches historical norms in terms of seasonal distribution -- a couple of early storms, the bulk of activity from 1 August through 15 October, and one or maybe two late season storms (including, perhaps, the aforementioned subtropical cyclone). This is a departure from the past few seasons, where activity has waited until closer to the peak of the season to really get going. I do not feel that this season will wait until 31 July to get started, unlike last year. With an early season storm likely, I am going to go fairly early in terms of the first hurricane date, naming 25 June as my target.
Landfall prediction is a fool's errand, but I get the feeling that this season will feature a good number of long-track Cape Verde storms, inherently increasing the risk to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the Outer Banks. Other than that, however, I am not willing to venture a guess as to other potential targets; there is simply no skill.
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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