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Helene after-Impacts still being felt in some areas. Area to watch for the Gulf Coast in the west Caribbean in a week to week and a half or so, with a 40% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 2 (Helene) , Major: 2 (Helene) Florida - Any: 2 (Helene) Major: 2 (Helene)
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Wind: 80MPH
Pres: 969mb
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Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1004mb
Moving:
Nw at 9 mph
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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Early Morning Model Roundup
      Tue Aug 22 2006 02:23 AM

CMC GLOBAL
TD4 Up and down intensities...144hr (6 day) forecast.Near 25N/ 55W

Current Wave near 10N/ 40W. Begins an increase in intensity while south of Dominican Republic. (850mb 2 contours)
Increasing to a 3rd 850mb contour just South of the Western tip of Cuba at 132hr (5.5 days,Sunday 12Z).
Up to a 4th 850mb contour, at 144hrs ( 6.0 days-Sunday Night) just North of the Yucatan Channel (Cancun,MX), and after entering the Gulf of Mexico.

500mb vortice is present along the same forecast track.
(Note:The CMC Global is the ONLY model forecasting this Wave to intensify at this time-00Z 22AUG06)
*********************************************

GFDL
TD4 Increasing intensity. Maximum of 87.9kts/ 101mph (981mb forecast minumum pressure). Near 29.5N/ 51.5W at 126hrs (06Z 27Aug06-Early Sunday Morning).
(Note:This run of the GFDL is also forecasting occasional 35 to 64kt winds over the Central Lesser Antilles (from 06Z-23AUG06,to 00Z-24AUG06) and over Eastern Cuba, (from 00Z26AUG06 to 12Z26AUG06)
(These are Forecast wind speeds from the 00Z 22AUG06 GFDL Model Run)
**********************************************

GFS
TD4 Consistant intensity on a Northwestward forecast track.
To a forecast position of 30N/ 50W at 144hrs (6 days-Sunday Night)

No other features in the Atlantic Basin on this model run.
*********************************************

UKMET
TD4 Maintains intensity through 96 hours (12Z Friday Morning).
At 144hrs (6 days), centered near 25N/ 55W, as an 850mb, 1 contour vortice.

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* August Spin gus Tue Aug 22 2006 02:23 AM
. * * Early Morning Model Roundup danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 22 2006 02:23 AM

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