MikeC
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Still Quiet in the Tropics
Fri Jun 20 2008 07:53 PM
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It's getting into the latter portion of June, and the usual pattern of a few waves and clouds moving across the Atlantic, but quickly disorganizing is occurring.
Enjoy the quiet time of June, because in August and September, the peak will occur, and there will be much more activity to keep watch. July is when to begin in Ernest looking at waves that could actually form into something threatening, but usually it does not.
The east Pacific is also pretty quiet right now, and none of the reliable forecasting models are predicting anything for the next week or so. In comparing the other June months since we started watching the tropics closely, this June has been pretty average so far.
Starting in July the atmospheric flows usually start to become slowly more favorable.
In Hurricane History, Florida has been relatively lucky (prior to 2004) with major hurricanes, but there was a 25 year period where a major hit on Florida happened approximately every other year. (1944-69)
Since 1969 until 2004, there have been about 3 major canes to make true landfall in Florida, one of those was Andrew. Quite a difference.
It's a bit early to say if we have entered into another such period, but in 2004 with Charley, Frances, Jeanne, and Ivan, and more recently Wilma, we could be off to another long term period of higher and more dangerous activity.
Major Hurricanes to landfall in Florda in the 1944-1969 Period:
Major Hurricanes since 1900 to landfall in Florida:
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