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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

dem05
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL

Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics
Mon Jun 23 2008 02:39 AM

The odds of a weak, baroclinically induced type tropical system in the Gulf does not seem very likely right now, but there are interesting features to observe just in case.

If development were to occur, the window for this environment is very small, and I would say it would be north of the Yucatan Pannisula (or eastward) and south of 25N.

Here's the pro side: This is the area that may be seeing the greatest convergence and there has been ample moisture for the last few days. Also, I notice on the shortwave that the low level cloud pattern approaching the Yucatan. There seems to be that classic piling of winds and a signature wind shift on approach to the Yucatan. Note that the low level clounds move quickly to the west across the Caribbean then arc northward and even kink a bit the the NE. Also notice that the cloud motion slows quickly on final approach to the extreme western Cribb. Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

The con side: Upper level dynamics...Often, there is a change in such circumastance for weak to moderate lopsided development in the eastern of east central Gulf when there is a cutoff low somewhere around 95W in the Gulf of Mexico. This such area does exist tonight, but here is the caveat. It has to stay there...and it does not seem to be doing that. In fact, it is now gaining on 90W. A digging trough moved across Texas and the ULL appears to be moving E-ENE. This limits any window and probably eliminates the chance for any organization of a surface type feature that is tropical in nature. Likewise, there has been no persistent-deep thunderstom activity of note anywhere in the Gulf.

At this time, I believe Florida will get an additional moisture punch. However, speculation of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico appear to be an impossiblitiy at this time. Enjoy the rains, Florida...After all, it is drought catch up time and we have a nice moisture feed...

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Still Quiet in the Tropics	MikeC	Mon Jun 23 2008 02:39 AM
Re: Invest 92L- July 1	Steve H1	Tue Jul 01 2008 02:15 PM
Invest 92L- July 1	danielw	Tue Jul 01 2008 09:27 AM
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics	tropics	Tue Jul 01 2008 06:23 AM
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics	Ed Dunham	Mon Jun 30 2008 06:21 PM
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics	Storm Hunter	Mon Jun 30 2008 02:33 PM
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics	LoisCane	Mon Jun 30 2008 12:50 PM
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics	rmbjoe1954	Mon Jun 30 2008 12:25 PM
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics	allan	Mon Jun 30 2008 10:41 AM
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics	DarleneCane	Sat Jun 28 2008 05:18 PM
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics	cieldumort	Sat Jun 28 2008 03:59 AM
Re: GOM SSTs	Storm Hunter	Thu Jun 26 2008 01:38 PM
Re: GOM SSTs	danielw	Wed Jun 25 2008 12:43 PM
Re: GOM SSTs	Storm Hunter	Tue Jun 24 2008 09:06 PM
Re: GOM SSTs	islandtime	Tue Jun 24 2008 04:39 PM
Re: GOM SSTs	lawgator1	Tue Jun 24 2008 03:20 PM
GOM SSTs	danielw	Mon Jun 23 2008 11:46 PM
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics	scottsvb	Mon Jun 23 2008 11:15 PM
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics	Beach	Mon Jun 23 2008 05:47 PM
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics	scottsvb	Mon Jun 23 2008 11:17 AM
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics	cieldumort	Mon Jun 23 2008 03:56 AM
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics	dem05	Mon Jun 23 2008 02:39 AM
Re: Bay of Campeche	Ed Dunham	Sun Jun 22 2008 01:35 PM
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics	danielw	Sun Jun 22 2008 12:36 PM
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics	Hurricane29	Sun Jun 22 2008 11:07 AM
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics	danielw	Sat Jun 21 2008 11:28 PM
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics	danielw	Sat Jun 21 2008 01:07 PM

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