cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics
Mon Jun 23 2008 03:56 AM
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It's been quiet, but not entirely dull. Tropical waves have been unseasonably strong so far the past few weeks. However, baking tropical cyclones requires more than just one of the "right" ingredients to be present. If all it took was "one," anywhere that SSTs are running north of 26c to a depth of fifty meters or more would be spinning out a new TC every week, and as we know, this does not happen.
Shear has turned horribly unfavorable in the Atlantic basin, post-Arthur. Since then, anytime there has been a even a hint of a disturbance forming the "daggers of death at 30,000 feet" have ripped them to bits in short order. Several intrusions of dry, stable air back into much of the basin haven't offered much help to would-be Invests, either. All-in-all, the typical hostile conditions for this time of year do prevail.
I am giving some consideration to recent FSUMM5 runs, which have suggested that an eastern Pacific system forms and runs nnwd, which might make one think it could follow the same route that Alma took before her remnants helped jump over into the Caribbean to help form Arthur. Indeed a new low pressure center appears now to be forming in the vicinity of 90W 7.5N, and steering currents suggest that it could conceivably travel north instead of west, given at least a temporary weakness in the area. However, of all of the other major models which grow a TC out of that region at all within the next 7 days, it is pretty much the outlier in driving it northward, with the rest driving it decidedly west, of course.
Another, perhaps even less viable candidate for slow development, is the latest ITCZ mess south of 10N between about 30W and 45W. At least if it breaks north before running into South America.. and spins out a decent LLCC... there might be some argument made by those who get to do so to slap an Invest tag on it.
Writing about the viability, or really the lack thereof, of these two features, especially at this time of year, doesn't amount to much more than wave mongering. Should the disturbance in the far eastern pacific develop further, and I suspect that it very well might be the next named system out there, it still doesn't have much support to become another one of those once in a crazy blue moon basin jumpers. And that disturbance within the ITCZ is about to run into South America, or navigate more daggers of death, regardless of ever getting even a little bit organized.
Neat things to watch. Little at all to worry about right now.
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