MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Georgia Low Forming into Tropical Depression
Thu Jul 17 2008 06:31 PM
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8:00PM EDT Update 18 July 2008
According to the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook released at 8PM EDT, The low off the Georgia coastline is forming into Tropical Depression #3 and at 11:00 PM EDT the NHC confirmed that it has become Tropical Depression # 3.
5:30PM EDT Update 18 July 2008
Bertha is once again a Hurricane, still moving quite far away from land, interestingly enough Iceland may have to deal with Extratropical Bertha at some point.
The recon once again went through the wave in the Central Caribbean (94L), and did not find a closed circulation. This shows off now and then, but doesn't actually develop. The outflow on it is good, the circulation is not. Thus it is worth watching over the next several days.
The low off the Georgia coast, (96L) has a good presentation on radar, but probably will not be upgraded until recon goes out there tomorrow if at all.
Right now it has more against it being upgraded than for it. T-numbers are too low, circulation isn't quite well formed enough (but better than the Caribbean wave). Dry air is hampering it on the Northwestern Side, and the Satellite estimates (T- Numbers) don't support it yet either. It the latest convective burst sticks it may be upgraded later tonight or tomorrow morning.
Due to the close proximity of land the South East, in Particular South and North Carolina, Georgia, and perhaps Southeast Virginia should be watching this system closely
1:30PM EDT Update 18 July 2008
Recon Aircraft is on its way to the wave in the Caribbean (94L).
A Special Disturbance statement was issued this morning for both 94L and 96L, Recon is scheduled to investigate both, and one or both of the systems may form into a depression today or tomorrow.
Chances (as of 1:30PM) for 94L: 45%, 96L: 55%
Those in the Central and Western Caribbean, Yucatan, and Western Cuba will want to keep a close eye on 94L, and those in Georgia, and both of the Carolinas (and maybe southeast Virginia) will want to watch 96L.
What do you think it will do? Forecast Lounge is open for The Caribbean Wave 94L here and the Low off Georgia 96L Here
Registered users may want to click here to set their location -- by setting your location (lat/long) you will soon be able to get tailored current hurricane info and statistics relative to your marked position that you can see on our Google Map Storm Plots.
11:45 AM EDT Update 18 July 2008
Special Disturbance statement issued for both 94L and 96L, Recon is scheduled to investigate both, and one or both of the systems may form into a depression today or tomorrow.
Chances (as of 1:30PM) for 94L: 45%, 96L: 55%
Those in the Central and Western Caribbean, Yucatan, and Western Cuba will want to keep a close eye on 94L, and those in Georgia, and both of the Carolinas (and maybe southeast Virginia) will want to watch 96L.
What do you think it will do? Forecast Lounge is open for The Caribbean Wave 94L here and the Low off Georgia 96L Here
Registered users may want to click here to set their location -- by setting your location (lat/long) you will soon be able to get tailored current hurricane info and statistics relative to your marked position that you can see on our Google Map Storm Plots.
6:30 AM EDT Update 18 July 2008
This morning remains status Quo. The wave in the Western Caribbean (95L) has moved over Nicaragua and is causing rain there, and has also kept it from developing further.
The wave in the central/Eastern Caribbean (94L) is still disorganized, but will be worth watching later as it moves away from Venezuela and the Netherlands Antilles/Aruba. Most of the convection in the system is to the north of it. The system is persisting, the convection is not, and not until both do will it have a better chance to develop. Still the model projections will have us watching it into next week. (45% chance of development today)
The low off the coast of Georgia (96L) has not moved much during the night, it has basically drifted slowly to the north if anything. This morning its entraining a lot of dry air from the northwest which should keep this system weak, if it persists through the dry air it may form later, but chances are it will remain weak. It is being monitored because it is close to land. 25% chance of development today.
Tropical Storm Bertha is moving Northeast away from all land areas now at a rapid pace.
Original Update
Tonight there are a few storms in the Atlantic that could develop, but none of the systems are likely to. If it were August or September, it's very likely the entire tone of this article would be different.
Tropical Bertha is still moving out to sea and may become Extratropical within 4 days or so.
The waves in the Caribbean, neither of which are likely to develop. 95L in the West and 94L in the East.
The western wave (95L) is too close to land to develop, but should give Central America a good deal of Rainfall.
The eastern wave (94L) has some Recon Aircraft going through it, but conditions and the system itself aren't all that favorable, but still has a small chance to develop. Again if it persistently shows convection (which to this point it hasn't) then it would become worth watching, right now it is not.
The last recon plane through there still did not find anything worth upgrading to a depression.
The low off the coast of Georgia (96L) was the low in the Gulf prior to moving across Florida yesterday, it's now over the Gulf Stream and has the potential to become a depression.
The Georgia Low's current movement is slowly northward (or even northwestward) which means it may develop before nearing land in the Carolinas. Because of the close proximity to land, its somewhat less likely to develop.
The position its in, and the conditions around it are in doubt enough that people in these areas need to watch it, especially if it does form, in case rapid development occurs.
Despite this, There is only about a 33% chance of development. At the very least it would be a rain maker for parts of the Carolinas if comes onshore. And that's likely all that it will be. Be glad it is July and not late August.
Long Term Radar Recording of 96L HCWX Level 3 Radar Recording
East Caribbean (94L) Wave Chances of Development in the next 24 hours
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[--*------------------]
West Caribbean (95L) Wave Chances of Development in the next 24 hours
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-*-------------------]
Low Off Georgia Coast (96L) Chances of Development in the next 24 hours
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------*--------------]
Event Related Links
Southeast Radar Composite (loop)
{{radarlink|jax|Jacksonville Radar}}
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne Radar}}
{{radarlink|clx|Charleston, SC Radar}}
Netherland Antilles/Aruba Radar 1
Netherland Antilles/Aruba Radar 2
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Bertha|02|2|2008|1|Bertha}}
{{StormLinks|94L|94|4|2008|2|94L}}
{{StormLinks|TD#3|03|3|2008|4|TD#3}}
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